区块链技术下智能合约之于合同的新诠释

应用于交易领域的智能合约融入区块链技术,以代码形式表现,可实现合同履行的自动化和不可逆,超越了传统意义上的合同模式.自助行为说、代理说将智能合约视为对合同过程的外部增强,是侧面功能的法律阐释,并未完全捕捉到实质.智能合约并不一定跨越整个合同过程,也可仅是合同过程某个方面或某个阶段.法律意义上的智能合约不是合同新类型,而是合同关系形式的新发展,即当事人缔结和履行合同的新形式,合同性质未发生实质变化.智能合约满足特定要件构成特殊的书面形式,具有"书面形式+自动履行"功能的特质.民事主体通过智能合约形式订立合同应遵守《民法典》等现行法律的具体规则,以保证合同依法成立与生效.智能合约不等同于具有法律效力的合同,认定其效力应结合智能合约应用中的具体问题展开具体分析.从立法上确认智能合约,在符合国家现有法律、政策基础上编写和应用,实现形式的合法化、内容的规范化是该技术谋求长远发展的保障.技术起步的现阶段,纸质合同、一般电子合同与智能合约在不同方面发挥协作作用,会在未来一段时间内成为民事交往、商业交易的主要状态.     

A Framework to Understand Extreme Space Weather Event Probability

An extreme space weather event has the potential to disrupt or damage infrastructure systems and technologies that many societies rely on for economic and social well‐being. Space weather events occur regularly, but extreme events are less frequent, with a small number of historical examples over the last 160 years. During the past decade, published works have (1) examined the physical characteristics of the extreme historical events and (2) discussed the probability or return rate of select extreme geomagnetic disturbances, including the 1859 Carrington event. Here we present initial findings on a unified framework approach to visualize space weather event probability, using a Bayesian model average, in the context of historical extreme events. We present disturbance storm time (Dst ) probability (a proxy for geomagnetic disturbance intensity) across multiple return periods and discuss parameters of interest to policymakers and planners in the context of past extreme space weather events. We discuss the current state of these analyses, their utility to policymakers and planners, the current limitations when compared to other hazards, and several gaps that need to be filled to enhance space weather risk assessments.     

Theories as modern myths: Giving up the pursuit of good theory to focus on good theorizing

Mills discusses the notion of myth and links it to a discussion of theory. While he does not consider myth and theory to be synonymous, I attempt to close the gap between these two notions even further. This argument is accomplished by discussing theorists that have theorized about theory and aligning their claims with Mills’ claims about myth. I propose that Mills cannot rely on coherence to substantiate good myth/theory and, instead, suggest the consideration of what constitutes good quality theorizing. Good theorizing involves deep understanding of different theories/myths and comparing them to generate innovation.     

以人民为中心的理论认识与制度安排

以人民为中心的思想理念拓展了传统意义上的人民概念和创造历史伟业的依靠对象。依靠人民创造历史伟业，发展生产力，提供丰富的物质财富、精神财富和生态财富。构建劳动力资本化为劳动者股份的制度安排，合理界定劳动收入和资本收入的边界，保障劳动贡献归劳动者所得，资本贡献归资本所有者所得，为人民实现美好生活需要提供制度和收入上的保障。以人民为中心的思想理念，是对《共产党宣言》的每个人自由发展思想的继承和发展，是马克思主义中国化时代化大众化的理论成果。     

Human Error in Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Deployment: A System Dynamics Approach

The use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) for various applications have grown with maturing technology and improved accessibility. The deployment of AUVs for under-ice marine science research in the Antarctic is one such example. However, a higher risk of AUV loss is present during such endeavors due to the extremities in the Antarctic. A thorough analysis of risks is therefore crucial for formulating effective risk control policies and achieving a lower risk of loss. Existing risk analysis approaches focused predominantly on the technical aspects, as well as identifying static cause and effect relationships in the chain of events leading to AUV loss. Comparatively, the complex interrelationships between risk variables and other aspects of risk such as human errors have received much lesser attention. In this article, a systems-based risk analysis framework facilitated by system dynamics methodology is proposed to overcome existing shortfalls. To demonstrate usefulness of the framework, it is applied on an actual AUV program to examine the occurrence of human error during Antarctic deployment. Simulation of the resultant risk model showed an overall decline in human error incident rate with the increase in experience of the AUV team. Scenario analysis based on the example provided policy recommendations in areas of training, practice runs, recruitment policy, and setting of risk tolerance level. The proposed risk analysis framework is pragmatically useful for risk analysis of future AUV programs to ensure the sustainability of operations, facilitating both better control and monitoring of risk.     

弱势群体公法保护视野下的社会帮扶问题

弱势群体保护问题是当今社会，尤其是公法学界所面临的严峻课题。为了有效应对这一问题，应采用比较研究、实证研究、文献研究的方法，在继续完善传统公法意义上的相关保障性制度的基础上，积极构建弱势群体的社会帮扶制度。弱势群体的社会帮扶制度一方面以服务行政理论为理论依据，要求弱势群体保护由当下的“政治负责”向“社会负责”过渡；另一方面，社会帮扶制度又以公共服务理论为理论支撑，要求政府由高权强制型向怀柔服务型转变。在实践中，弱势群体的社会帮扶制度应遵循政府与社会“两条腿走路”的基本逻辑，而该制度的构建应秉承若干基本思路：破除观念束缚，培育和构建公民社会；丰富社会主体形式，弥补行政保障不足；完善其他社会帮扶途径。     

习近平新时代观的理论生成探讨

理顺习近平关于“中国特色社会主义进入新时代”的逻辑理路，有助于系统论证“新时代”的科学性和理论性。从方法论上看，习近平新时代观是应用马克思主义立场观点和方法得出的正确结论。从理论归因看，中国社会主要矛盾的转化作为习近平新时代观生成的主要标志，源于马克思主义关于矛盾运动的基本理论。从理论定位看，习近平新时代观展现的是中国发展的特殊阶段，内含着中国对自身发展的时代定位与目标趋向，渗透着中国与世界在共同发展中的新阶段、新高度、新未来，是对中国发展方向的顶层设计。     

The ‘right time’ – negotiating the timing of interviews with vulnerable young people

Participant retention is a key factor in determining the success of longitudinal research. Challenges in re-locating and retaining participants over the long term are major issues for researchers working with young people who face adversity and experience frequent changes in circumstances. This article reports on a study of vulnerable young people and their transition into adulthood. Rather than the more conventional schedule-based approach to locating and re-interviewing young people, a relational process, the ‘right time’ framework, was used to facilitate young people's involvement in the study. Embedded in the ‘right time’ framework is recognition of the diverse and fluctuating circumstances that shape young people's availability for interviews. Several case examples are considered which amplify the way that the ‘right time’ framework allowed the research to navigate around these circumstances. The case examples highlight the value young people attached to being involved in the research, the influence on the ‘right time’ of wider relational tensions for young people and the need to negotiate researcher status as a different sort of adult. The ‘right time’ framework contributed to a high retention rate in the study generating a more representative sample and enhancing the subsequent data analysis by providing valuable insights into the lives of these vulnerable young people.     

当代中国马克思主义大众化的理论创新与实践创新

任何理论的演化都无法脱离其所属的时代。马克思主义大众化的演化历程反映了马克思主义基本原理不断融入中国革命和改革开放实践的过程,马克思主义在中国的演化过程与中国的时代背景密切相关。马克思主义大众化是理论创新和实践创新不断结合的过程,包含着对理论与实践关系的理解,是指在国内外形势之下马克思主义由理论到实践、由书斋到世俗、由被少数人推崇到被人民群众所接受的历程。创新是马克思主义大众化和现代化建设实践相统一的基本途径,彰显了马克思主义演化过程中理论创新和实践创新的不断融合。在当代中国,从理论与实践的层面上分析马克思主义大众化何以可能的问题,对指导当代中国马克思主义创新有一定意义。     

Wider Perspectives in Family Mediation: An Ecosystemic Approach

All mediation processes are constrained by their theoretical frameworks. A wider ecosystemic framework extends perspectives and can open new windows on family systems, interdisciplinary connections, and links between past, present, and future that shape decisions. While showing some similarities to family therapy, ecosystemic family mediation is a discrete process with clearly defined principles and boundaries. In practice, it needs to be tailored to the needs of the particular family, with special attention to the importance of listening and talking with children who are experiencing parental separation and major changes in their lives. Family mediators help family members to manage change. Mediators need to look for change within themselves too, remaining open to new ideas and the development of their thinking and practice.