现代汉语自足句中谓语动词时间属性的凸显

谓语动词所隐含的时间属性是句子中重要的“量”,谓语动词时间属性的凸显关系到谓语信息量的自足。在现代汉语中,时间名词作为宏观时间系统的主要成员可以直接表示时间属性。时间副词和动态助词作为微观时间系统的成员则以模糊的量凸显动作的时间属性,此外,趋向动词以及补语都是凸显谓语动词时间属性的重要语法成分。     

Improved functional portmanteau tests

Functional time series is a popular method of forecasting in functional data analysis. The Box-Jenkins methodology for model building, with the aim of forecasting, includes three iterative steps of model identification, parameter estimation and diagnostic checking. Portmanteau tests are one of the most popular diagnostic checking tools. In particular, they are applied to find if the residuals of the fitted model are white noise. Gabrys and Kokoszka [Portmanteau test of independence for functional observations. J Am Stat Assoc. 2007;102(480):1338–1348.] proposed a portmanteau test of independence for functional observation based on Box and Pierce's statistic. Their statistic is too sensitive to the lag value, specially when the sample size is small. Here, two modifications of Gabrys and Kokoszka statistic are presented, which have superior properties in small samples. The efficiency of the modified statistics is demonstrated through a simulation study.     

L'adoption par l'OIT d'une approche fondée sur la durabilité et ses conséquences sur le droit d'expression collective des travailleurs

L'action de l'OIT pour le développement durable s'est d'abord organisée autour des notions de «transition juste» et d'«emplois verts», en lien avec la protection de l'environnement. Aujourd'hui, les objectifs du développement durable devraient permettre à l'Organisation de se saisir pleinement de la dimension sociale du développement durable, grâce à l'ODD 8, qui mentionne le travail décent, et à la cible 16.7 sur la participation à la prise de décisions. L'auteure examine comment l'OIT pourrait promouvoir l'expression collective des travailleurs dans le contexte du débat sur un «avenir du travail durable» et cherche à déterminer qui doit avoir un droit d'expression et comment celui-ci doit s'exercer.     

Optimization problems for consecutive-2-out-of-n:G system

Abstract

This paper considers the optimization problems for a consecutive-2-out-of-n:G system where n is considered to be fixed or random. When the number of components is constant, the optimal number of components and the optimal replacement time are discussed by minimizing the expected cost rates. Furthermore, we focus on the above discussions again when n is a random variable. We give an approximate value of MTTF and propose the preventive replacement policy, respectively.     

Detecting Directionality in Time Series

Abstract

Directionality can be seen in many stationary time series from various disciplines, but it is overlooked when fitting linear models with Gaussian errors. Moreover, we cannot rely on distinguishing directionality by comparing a plot of a time series in time order with a plot in reverse time order. In general, a statistical measure is required to detect and quantify directionality. There are several quite different qualitative forms of directionality, and we distinguish: rapid rises followed by slow recessions; rapid increases and rapid decreases from the mean followed by slow recovery toward the mean; directionality above or below some threshold; and intermittent directionality. The first objective is to develop a suite of statistical measures that will detect directionality and help classify its nature. The second objective is to demonstrate the potential benefits of detecting directionality. We consider applications from business, environmental science, finance, and medicine. Time series data are collected from many processes, both natural and anthropogenic, by a wide range of organizations, and directionality can easily be monitored as part of routine analysis. We suggest that doing so may provide new insights to the processes.     

Water cycle algorithm for solving the reliability-redundancy allocation problem with a choice of redundancy strategies

Abstract

This paper proposes a new mathematical model for the reliability-redundancy allocation problem (RRAP) with a choice of redundancy strategies. To maximize the reliability of a system, this model chooses the best redundancy strategy from among both active and standby ones for each subsystem. For those with a standby strategy, a continuous time Markov chain model is used to calculate the exact reliability values. In order to solve the proposed mixed-integer non-linear programing model, a powerful evolutionary algorithm, called water cycle algorithm (WCA), is developed and implemented on three famous benchmark problems. Finally, the results of different benchmark problems are compared with those previously reported to show the superiority of the proposed model and the efficiency of WCA.     

The effects of individually varying times of observations on growth parameter estimations in piecewise growth model

When using latent growth modeling (LGM), researchers often restrict the factor loadings, while the multilevel modeling (MLM) treats time as a metric variable. However, when individually varying times of observations are concerned in the longitudinal studies, the use of specified loadings would lead to inaccurate estimation. Based on piecewise growth modeling (PGM), this simulation study showed that (i) individually varying times of observations with larger boundaries got worse estimates and model fits when LGM was used; (ii) estimating the PGM across all the simulation situations was robust within MLM, whereas LGM got identically equal estimation with MLM only in the case of time boundaries of ±1 month or shorter; (iii) larger change of slope in piecewise modeling indicated better estimation.     

基于分层网络的机动时间研究

现有网络计划技术的研究主要针对单层网络,难以有效地指导大型项目的生产.原因在于大型工程项目生产过程复杂,工序成千上万,给对应的网络图描述带来了极大的困难.然而,通过网络分层技术则能把一个复杂的网络分解成多个简单的子网络,即将大型网络过渡到几个简单的单层网络,继而利用单层网络技术对其进行分析.本文依据大型网络的构建过程提出简化组合模型,将多层次复杂网络转化为多个单层次简单网络,在此基础上给出分层网络机动时间的计算公式.最后通过一个实例验证了此方法的正确性和可行性.     

Using Lean Six Sigma to improve mobile order fulfilment process in a telecom service sector

This study proposes and follows a specific and systematic framework for implementing Lean Six Sigma (LSS) methodology in a telecom company in order to improve customer satisfaction by minimizing the company’s response time to customer requirements. The goal of this study was achieved by utilizing several LSS tools under five phases of the DMAIC methodology. Unlike previous studies in the telecom sector that used only qualitative method, in this study, both qualitative and quantitative methods were utilized to draw meaningful conclusions. As a result of the implementation of the LSS methodology, the average order fulfilment lead time for sales orders (SO) and value-added service (VAS) orders was reduced from 10.3 to 5.9 days and from 1.5 to 0.5 days, respectively. The reduction in lead time resulted in an increase in the sigma level for SO and VAS orders from 0.44 to 1.26 and from 0.73 to 2.66, respectively. These improvements were expected to lead to a financial benefit in savings of over $600,000 per year in operational costs, enhancements to customer experience and an increase in revenue generating opportunities. Moreover, this article enriches the existing literature on the application of LSS concept in the service industry, and helps the company to speed up the response to customer requirements.     

实物资金流量表的预测方法研究

资金流量表是国民经济核算体系中的重要组成部分。然而，由于在编制过程中需要采集大量的数据，通常情况下，很多国家的资金流量表都会有较长时间的滞后。在编制实物资金流量表的延长表时，已有方法通常是基于基期与预测期交易收支结构保持不变的假定条件。然而，经济结构发生显著变化时，该类方法就会失效。基于上述问题，研究弱化模型的假设条件，并提出了新的实物资金流量表预测方法( 简称 FPTF方法)。根据表中元素必须满足的约束条件，该方法通过建立数学模型解除约束，其次基于历史数据的动态趋势，采用适当的时间序列分析方法来预测目标年份的实物资金流量表。通过仿真分析，验证了所提方法的有效性和稳定性。此外，基于中国1992年～2014 年的实物资金流量表数据进行实例分析，取得了满意的分析结果。