人民币汇率失衡及贸易壁垒对我国出口行业影响异质性研究

贸易摩擦、新冠疫情使我国经济贸易面临严峻挑战,人民币汇率波动及贸易壁垒将常态化地影响我国出口贸易.在加快形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局背景下,文章基于HS分类原则,选取WTO等机构的贸易数据,通过构建BEER模型测算了人民币汇率失衡程度;通过建立固定效应面板模型研究了人民币汇率失衡及贸易壁垒双因素对我国出口行业影响的异质性.研究表明:人民币汇率失衡对我国出口贸易整体上具有显著负向影响,非关税壁垒对我国出口贸易整体上具有显著正向影响;关税和非关税构成的贸易壁垒与人民币汇率失衡双因素对我国出口贸易具有显著抑制作用,并对不同出口行业的影响存在异质性;人民币汇率失衡与非关税壁垒双因素对大多行业均具有显著负向影响,人民币汇率失衡与关税壁垒双因素对不同行业影响的正负效应及程度大小有异质性.因此,建议通过运行逆周期因子等完善人民币汇率自我修正机制;通过引导出口企业了解使用外汇衍生品等促进外汇衍生品市场运行机制的健全;通过加强"海外仓"建设及深耕RCEP框架下的东盟十国市场等实施出口行业差异化贸易策略;通过提升自主科技创新能力等加快出口行业产业转型升级,推动双循环,实现我国出口贸易高质量发展.     

Information search,coherence effects,and their interplay in legal decision making

Legal judgments require one to make sense of a complex set of typically contradicting pieces of information that can easily be interpreted in a biased manner. This systematic judgment bias can be caused by biased information search (i.e., confirmatory search) as well as biased information processing (i.e., coherence effects) in which the interpretation of information is changed to fit the emerging favored option. In four studies, we investigate the complex interplay between both kinds of influences. Participants completed three legal cases in which they could freely search for information. We manipulated between subjects whether systematic search was possible or not and measured the assessment of each selected piece of information. In line with previous studies, we observe strong coherence effects in each study, in that the evidence interpretation strongly depended on the current tendency towards acquittal or conviction. In contrast to our expectation, however, people searched for information that was contrary to their current belief in the given case (i.e., disconfirmatory information search). We also observed a trend towards an interaction between both factors, in that coherence effects were slightly stronger for neutral and pro-guilty evidence when systematic information search was possible. Our results underline an unconscious striving for coherence when making complex judgments that is not easily corrected.     

Estimation of geodesic tortuosity and constrictivity in stationary random closed sets

We investigate the problem of estimating geodesic tortuosity and constrictivity as two structural characteristics of stationary random closed sets. They are of central importance for the analysis of effective transport properties in porous or composite materials. Loosely speaking, geodesic tortuosity measures the windedness of paths, whereas the notion of constrictivity captures the appearance of bottlenecks resulting from narrow passages within a given materials phase. We first provide mathematically precise definitions of these quantities and introduce appropriate estimators. Then, we show strong consistency of these estimators for unboundedly growing sampling windows. In order to apply our estimators to real data sets, the extent of edge effects needs to be controlled. This is illustrated using a model for a multiphase material that is incorporated in solid oxide fuel cells.     

Linear scalar-on-surface random effects regression models

Many research fields increasingly involve analyzing data of a complex structure. Models investigating the dependence of a response on a predictor have moved beyond the ordinary scalar-on-vector regression. We propose a regression model for a scalar response and a surface (or a bivariate function) predictor. The predictor has a random component and the regression model falls in the framework of linear random effects models. We estimate the model parameters via maximizing the log-likelihood with the ECME (Expectation/Conditional Maximization Either) algorithm. We use the approach to analyze a data set where the response is the neuroticism score and the predictor is the resting-state brain function image. In the simulations we tried, the approach has better performance than two other approaches, a functional principal component regression approach and a smooth scalar-on-image regression approach.     

Noninformative priors for the between-group variance in the unbalanced one-way random effects model with heterogeneous error variances

For the unbalanced one-way random effects model with heterogeneous error variances, we propose the non-informative priors for the between-group variance and develop the first- and second-order matching priors. It turns out that the second-order matching priors do not exist and the reference prior and Jeffreys prior do not satisfy a first-order matching criterion. We also show that the first-order matching prior meets the frequentist target coverage probabilities much better than the Jeffreys prior and reference prior through simulation study, and the Bayesian credible intervals based on the matching prior and reference prior give shorter intervals than the existing confidence intervals by examples.     

The Eurasian Economic Union: Development Prospects and Possible Obstacles

This article analyzes the development prospects and problems for the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). It examines issues of integration within the EAEU, as well as interactions with other countries, both CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) and non-CIS. The main problem of integration within the EAEU is the dominance of redistributive motives over productive ones. This article assesses the extent of Russian oil and gas transfers to EAEU partners and the impact of tax maneuvers on their size. It shows that the creation of mechanisms for redistributing profits within the EAEU will allow a positive economic effect to materialize from free trade agreements with non-CIS countries. The article assesses the risks for the EAEU related to Russia’s introduction of a unilateral ban on food imports from countries on the sanctions list and to the possible establishment of tariffs on trade with Ukraine.     

Properties of the weighted log‐rank test in the design of confirmatory studies with delayed effects

Proportional hazards are a common assumption when designing confirmatory clinical trials in oncology. This assumption not only affects the analysis part but also the sample size calculation. The presence of delayed effects causes a change in the hazard ratio while the trial is ongoing since at the beginning we do not observe any difference between treatment arms, and after some unknown time point, the differences between treatment arms will start to appear. Hence, the proportional hazards assumption no longer holds, and both sample size calculation and analysis methods to be used should be reconsidered. The weighted log‐rank test allows a weighting for early, middle, and late differences through the Fleming and Harrington class of weights and is proven to be more efficient when the proportional hazards assumption does not hold. The Fleming and Harrington class of weights, along with the estimated delay, can be incorporated into the sample size calculation in order to maintain the desired power once the treatment arm differences start to appear. In this article, we explore the impact of delayed effects in group sequential and adaptive group sequential designs and make an empirical evaluation in terms of power and type‐I error rate of the of the weighted log‐rank test in a simulated scenario with fixed values of the Fleming and Harrington class of weights. We also give some practical recommendations regarding which methodology should be used in the presence of delayed effects depending on certain characteristics of the trial.     

生产性服务业对出口贸易的影响研究

生产性服务业将人力资本和知识资本导入生产过程促进了制造业升级,其发展程度代表着一个国家或地区的现代化程度。充分有效利用服务业资源已成为工业企业提高竞争力进而扩大出口贸易的必然选择。从专业化分工、技术创新等方面探讨生产性服务业对出口贸易的影响机理,结合辽宁省生产性服务业发展状况建立面板数据模型,对其是否影响辽宁出口贸易进行实证分析,结果证实辽宁生产性服务业发展促进了出口贸易发展,交通运输、仓储及邮政和商务服务业对辽宁出口贸易的影响较为明显。据此提出发展生产性服务业以促进辽宁贸易的建议。     

双循环新发展格局下中国双向直接投资研究

构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,是对未来中国经济发展路径做出的重大战略部署,作为连接国内国际双循环的纽带,双向直接投资的发展战略和路径面临重塑和调整。研究认为,应当以推动新时代科技创新和产业升级为目标,提高双向直接投资的质量,畅通供应链和产业链; 以“一带一路”倡议为依托,通过更高水平的双向投资带动中国与沿线国家贸易水平的提高; 建设高水平自贸区和自贸港,提高对外开放标准,更高质量吸引外资,提升参与国际大循环的技术含量和自主性; 在畅通要素流动领域,建立更加完善的现代化物流体系,建设更高标准的要素流通市场体系,降低制度性交易费用,提高生产率和对高质量外资的吸引能力。     

“一带一路”沿线国家互联网基础设施的贸易效应——基于贸易成本和全要素生产率的中介效应分析

在"一带一路"建设背景下，研究阐释"一带一路"沿线国家互联网基础设施的贸易效应及其作用机制，对于当前中国优化沿线国家的互联网基础设施建设布局，有效激发贸易效应，应对外贸环境的不利冲击，具有重要的现实意义。文章基于贸易成本和全要素生产率的分析视角，构建2007-2017年中国与45个"一带一路"沿线国家的面板数据，运用中介效应模型实证考察"一带一路"沿线国家互联网基础设施的贸易效应。总体检验结果表明，"一带一路"沿线国家互联网基础设施有利于中国与沿线国家的双边贸易往来，且主要通过降低贸易成本而非提高全要素生产率来发挥贸易效应。异质性检验结果表明，无论区分贸易方向还是沿线国家经济发展差异，互联网基础设施都具有明显的贸易效应，其中：贸易成本的中介效应主要发生在沿线发达国家对中国进、出口贸易中；全要素生产率的中介效应主要发生在沿线国家对中国出口贸易以及沿线发展中国家对中国进出口贸易中。新形势下中国参与"一带一路"沿线国家的互联网基础设施建设，要注意合理布局和把握建设力度，既培育贸易增长新动能，也优化进出口贸易结构。