劳动力转移对城乡居民收入差距的非线性影响研究

借鉴已有相关研究成果,将劳动力转移、农业技术水平与城乡居民收入差距联系起来思考,可以具体地考察劳动力转移对城乡居民收入差距的影响.文章以农业技术水平作为门槛变量,选取2009—2019年中国31个省份的面板数据,利用泰尔指数测定城乡收入差距,以劳动力转移作为核心解释变量构建面板门槛模型,实证得出劳动力转移对城乡居民收入差距的非线性影响.研究发现:劳动力转移可以缩小城乡居民收入差距,且该影响具有单一门槛效应.在农业技术水平较低时,劳动力转移对城乡居民收入差距收敛效应较小;当农业技术水平越过门槛值达到较高水平后,劳动力转移对缩小城乡居民收入差距的效果几乎增加了一倍.此后,通过替换解释变量泰尔指数为城乡人均可支配收入比、替换核心解释变量农业技术水平为农业生产效率重新建立面板门槛模型,发现上述结论仍然成立,其检验结果具有较强的稳健性.文章将农业技术进步、劳动力转移、城乡居民收入差距这三个重要变量纳入同一模型框架中,在加深劳动力流动影响城乡居民收入差距这一视角的研究的同时,对缩小城乡居民收入差距政策的制定提供了重要的参考意义.     

科技金融结合试点政策对地区经济增长影响研究——基于科技创新与产业结构合理化的视角

科技金融是"第一生产力"与"第一助推力"的有机结合,承担着带动地区经济高质量发展的重要使命.基于当前我国科技金融结合不断推进的背景,文章以2007—2016年我国共285个地级市的面板数据为例,运用双重差分法(DID)对科技部、中国人民银行等五部门推行的科技金融结合试点政策对试点地区经济增长的带动效应及机制进行检验.结果表明:第一,科技金融结合试点政策能够有效带动试点地区经济增长,这一结论具有稳健性;第二,科技金融结合试点政策对试点地区经济增长的带动作用存在显著的地域性差异,东部最强、中部次之、西部最弱;第三,进一步的机制检验表明科技金融结合试点政策能够通过提升地区科技创新水平和推动产业结构合理化的双重路径带动地区经济增长.为了进一步推动科技与金融相结合,提升地区经济发展水平,各地政府应高度重视科技金融结合试点政策对地区经济发展的正外部性,积极申报试点城市建设.同时,应结合各地市情社情制定差异化试点政策,大力提升科技创新与产业结构合理化水平,充分发挥其对地区经济增长的中介作用.     

参加医疗保险对农村居民健康的影响——基于CHARLS 2015数据的实证分析

基于CHARLS 2015数据,采用倾向得分匹配法实证分析参加医疗保险对农村居民健康的影响。研究发现:参加医疗保险对农村居民的日常活动能力和自评健康影响不显著,参加医疗保险对农村居民认知能力具有显著的正向影响。据此提出,应进一步提升社会医疗保险保障水平、扩大社会医疗保险保障范围、促进商业医疗保险有序发展、推进"三医"高效协同联动等,以充分发挥医疗保险的健康保障功能,从而进一步提升参加医疗保险对农村居民健康的正向影响。     

论环境行政公益诉讼的谦抑性——以检察机关提起环境行政公益诉讼为限

检察机关提起环境行政公益诉讼,是促进行政机关履行环境保护职责的重要方式.环境行政公益诉讼涉及检察机关、法院和行政机关三个机关,需要处理好司法权与行政权之间的关系.一方面,环境司法具有能动性,容易导致司法权与行政权之间的冲突;另一方面,基于司法有限性与环境法行政实施的特征,需要重视司法谦抑性问题.而如何认识环境行政公益诉讼的谦抑性,需要从理论和实践的维度进行分析.在检察机关提出环境行政诉讼时,应当尊重行政机关的首次管辖权、重视行政公益诉讼的诉前程序、尊重行政自由裁量权、重视行政不能问题.当然,这种谦抑并不是绝对的,为有效发挥行政公益诉讼的功能,应当把握好这种谦抑性的限度,通过明确强制诉讼范围、确定实体性裁判的要件、尊重诉讼和解等方式来处理好司法谦抑与司法监督的关系.     

Policy Learning and Transformational Change: University Policies on Sexual Harassment

ABSTRACT

This essay comes out of my experience as an attendee at the #MeTooPoliSci short course in the American Political Science Association meeting in 2018. I use the framework of policy feedback theory to explain the difficulty in reforming sexual harassment policies at universities and prescribe some actions we as scholars can take to improve the situations at our places of employment.     

区域一体化背景下城市土地利用效率的空间关联及其解释——以长江中游城市群为例

从理论层面揭示区域一体化影响城市土地利用效率（ULUE）的内在机理，构建区域一体化背景下“规模+结构+集聚”的ULUE测度体系，并综合利用小波神经网络、空间分异模型和空间回归分析探索2003-2015年长江中游城市群ULUE的空间关联特征及其影响因素。结果发现：①区域一体化背景下长江中游城市群ULUE从2003的0.561 4增长至2015年的0.811 1，且呈现出明显的区域差异。②ULUE并非随机分布，而是具有空间上的关联特征和集群趋势。且由于不同集聚区内扩散效应在空间上渗透不均衡，其关联性主要表现为空间依赖性和空间异质性。③区域一体化背景下长江中游城市群ULUE在空间关联上具有“近水楼台先得月”和“门当户对”的特征，地理位置的空间相邻、投资消费结构和产业结构的相似是其空间关联的主要成因。     

Diagnostics of multiple group influential observations for logistic regression models

In this paper, two new multiple influential observation detection methods, GCD.GSPR and mCD*, are introduced for logistic regression. The proposed diagnostic measures are compared with the generalized difference in fits (GDFFITS) and the generalized squared difference in beta (GSDFBETA), which are multiple influential diagnostics. The simulation study is conducted with one, two and five independent variable logistic regression models. The performance of the diagnostic measures is examined for a single contaminated independent variable for each model and in the case where all the independent variables are contaminated with certain contamination rates and intensity. In addition, the performance of the diagnostic measures is compared in terms of the correct identification rate and swamping rate via a frequently referred to data set in the literature.     

Bayesian inference for stable Lévy–driven stochastic differential equations with high‐frequency data

In this paper, we consider parametric Bayesian inference for stochastic differential equations driven by a pure‐jump stable Lévy process, which is observed at high frequency. In most cases of practical interest, the likelihood function is not available; hence, we use a quasi‐likelihood and place an associated prior on the unknown parameters. It is shown under regularity conditions that there is a Bernstein–von Mises theorem associated to the posterior. We then develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian inference, and assisted with theoretical results, we show how to scale Metropolis–Hastings proposals when the frequency of the data grows, in order to prevent the acceptance ratio from going to zero in the large data limit. Our algorithm is presented on numerical examples that help verify our theoretical findings.     

现代性启蒙与新时期文学的身份认同

中国当代文学在进入“新时期”后随着主流意识形态文艺制度的松绑而发生了重要的身份转向。这种“转向”一方面表现为作家写作心态的重要变化，另一方面也表现为文学风格的根本变化，同时还表现为文学启蒙主义现代性使命的重新回归。中国当代文学在进入“新时期”后的这种复杂现代性身份转型，为20世纪80年代后的中国社会现代性建设提供了重要的想象支持。     

Women migrants in the global economy: a global overview (and regional perspectives)

ABSTRACT

Huge advances have been made in deepening and expanding our knowledge of gendered migration over the last decades in both theoretical and methodological terms. Empirically it is, however, still the case that North–South migration is at the basis of most theorisations, leaving the characteristics of South–South migration at the margins. In this paper we, therefore, shift the focus to intra- and trans-regional migration in a South–South context in exploring what this means for women migrants. While feminist scholars have highlighted care and the ways in which migration challenges social reproduction as an important issue, mainstream approaches continue to focus predominantly on the ‘productive’ lives of migrant workers. With migration theories still largely drawing on the experience of South–North migration, there continues to be relatively little understanding of South–South migration’s gender dynamics, despite the fact that many of the highly feminised, yet hyper-precarious, migration flows occur intra-regionally.