格萨尔藏戏传承实践及文化表征

格萨尔藏戏将口头诗歌中的“歌”化为具体的表演行为动态实践，集声音、舞蹈、仪式和群体互动等多种形式于一体，是历史悠久、别具特色的藏戏剧种。格萨尔藏戏表演通过对古典时代民族民间文化的重构与想象，构成格萨尔史诗更丰富宽广的表达。作为文化象征的表述符号，格萨尔藏戏是口头传统研究中的表演民族志，其歌舞形态为本的言说系统，更贴近格萨尔史诗说唱本体，并重新廓清格萨尔史诗口传与书写之间复杂的关联，还口头说唱以本原。格萨尔史诗戏剧化表演实践与创新中的复合性、融合性、新生性特征和带有实验性的探索，使格萨尔藏戏经历新的蜕变。     

Optimization of Cascade‐Resilient Electrical Infrastructures and its Validation by Power Flow Modeling

Large‐scale outages on real‐world critical infrastructures, although infrequent, are increasingly disastrous to our society. In this article, we are primarily concerned with power transmission networks and we consider the problem of allocation of generation to distributors by rewiring links under the objectives of maximizing network resilience to cascading failure and minimizing investment costs. The combinatorial multiobjective optimization is carried out by a nondominated sorting binary differential evolution (NSBDE) algorithm. For each generators–distributors connection pattern considered in the NSBDE search, a computationally cheap, topological model of failure cascading in a complex network (named the Motter‐Lai [ML] model) is used to simulate and quantify network resilience to cascading failures initiated by targeted attacks. The results on the 400 kV French power transmission network case study show that the proposed method allows us to identify optimal patterns of generators–distributors connection that improve cascading resilience at an acceptable cost. To verify the realistic character of the results obtained by the NSBDE with the embedded ML topological model, a more realistic but also more computationally expensive model of cascading failures is adopted, based on optimal power flow (namely, the ORNL‐Pserc‐Alaska) model). The consistent results between the two models provide impetus for the use of topological, complex network theory models for analysis and optimization of large infrastructures against cascading failure with the advantages of simplicity, scalability, and low computational cost.     

Longitudinal Mediators of Relations Between Family Violence and Adolescent Dating Aggression Perpetration

Few longitudinal studies have examined the pathways through which family violence leads to dating aggression. In the current study the authors used 3 waves of data obtained from 8th‐ and 9th‐grade adolescents (N = 1,965) to examine the hypotheses that the prospective relationship between witnessing family violence and directly experiencing violence and physical dating aggression perpetration is mediated by 3 constructs: (a) normative beliefs about dating aggression (norms), (b) anger dysregulation, and (c) depression. Results from cross‐lagged regression models suggest that the relationship between having been hit by an adult and dating aggression is mediated by changes in norms and anger dysregulation, but not depression. No evidence of indirect effects from witnessing family violence to dating aggression was found through any of the proposed mediators. Taken together, the findings suggest that anger dysregulation and normative beliefs are potential targets for dating abuse prevention efforts aimed at youth who have directly experienced violence.     

传统音乐在学校的传承：国际议题和挑战

传统音乐是每个国家都具备的文化元素之一，透过学习和传承传统音乐，可以有效继承和发展自身的本土文化；然而传统音乐在学校课程中面对多方困难和挑战，亚洲各国多以西方音乐作为学校音乐课程的主导，传统音乐则被边缘化。本文先审视传统音乐在当代音乐环境中面临的困境，再介绍一个全面了解音乐传统的理论架构，从而了解不同的音乐传统的独特性和价值，提出音乐文化并无高低之分，并寄语有关当局重新审视本土传统音乐文化在学校教育中的价值和地位。     

少数民族神话传播内容的叙事传输研究——从藏族创世神话谈起

少数民族神话是民族文化的重要组成部分,对于少数民族神话的本体、类型、演变等相关研究已经举不胜举,但对于民族神话传播的研究一直以来相对薄弱。以藏族创世神话为例,基于对藏族创世神话内容的生态特征分析,从叙事传输视角审视藏族创世神话内容,剖析藏族创世神话叙事传输的影响因子和神话在传输过程中的损耗问题,试图对民族神话传播研究有所突破,并且从学科交叉与跨学科的研究中对学科体系完善进行探析。     

卖空压力对企业债券期限选择的影响——来自中国放松卖空管制准自然实验的证据

放松卖空管制后,投资者可通过挖掘公司“坏消息”在资本市场投资获利,在允许被卖空情境中,公司内部股东和管理层面临股价下行压力增大,会积极采取行动以规避被卖空的风险。借助中国证券市场2010年开始逐步放松卖空管制的准自然实验,以2007—2015年上市公司为样本,考察卖空压力对企业债券契约的影响。研究发现:放松卖空管制与企业债券期限显著负相关,特别是在大股东持股比例较高和管理层市场压力更大时。进一步分析发现,放松卖空管制与企业债务期限结构显著负相关,表明放松卖空管制会促使企业缩短发行债券的期限。研究结果显示,面对放松卖空管制引起的股价下行压力,公司大股东和管理层为了规避被卖空风险,会积极选择缩短发行债券期限以传递信号,证实了卖空机制对改善市场信息环境的积极作用。政府可以通过加强卖空机制制度建设和监管,推动企业调整行为决策,降低信息不对称。     

基于家庭策略的贫困代际传递治理

家庭是贫困治理的社会基础,有效阻断贫困的代际传递是贫困治理的重要方式。基于家庭策略的视野,通过对两个贫困家庭在减贫过程中不同减贫方式的分析与比较,探讨家庭策略如何被自主运用来解决贫困问题。研究发现,“反馈模式”的代际关系下,多子女所带来的路径可选择性与关系灵活性让家庭有更大空间采用有效的家庭策略,以“代内合力”和“代际合力”为一部分子女的成长和发展提供更充分的资源及“资源变现”的空间与条件,从而为实现“家庭减贫”创造机会。在巩固脱贫成果和实现乡村振兴进程中,家庭作用的有效发挥能充分激发家庭自我发展的内生动力,从而实现脱贫致富。     

Dynamics of the term structure of interest rates and monetary policy: is monetary policy effective during zero interest rate policy?

The monetary policy targets the short rates; however, during zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), the short end of the yield curve cannot serve as a policy instrument. Relying on the joint yields-macro latent factors model, this study empirically examines the effect of monetary policy stances on term structure and the possible feedback effect on the real sector using the Japanese experience of ZIRP. The analysis indicates that it is the entire term structure that transmits the policy shocks to the real economy rather than the yield spread only. The monetary policy signals pass through the yield curve level and slope factors to stimulate the economic activity. The curvature factor, besides reflecting the cyclical fluctuations of the economy, acts as a leading indicator for future inflation. In addition, policy influence tends to be low as the short end becomes segmented toward medium/long-term of the yield curve. Furthermore, volatility in bond markets is found to be asymmetrically affected by positive and negative shocks and long end tends to be less sensitive to stochastic shocks than the short maturities. The expectation hypothesis of the term structure does not hold during the ZIRP period.     

开放经济下OFDI对产业结构升级效应及传导路径

开放经济下对外直接投资(OFDI)已成为我国融入世界经济的主要途径,在优化产业结构、推进经济转型等方面扮演着重要角色。根据OFDI与产业结构升级及传导路径的互动机理分析,在对安徽省OFDI投资概况和产业结构现状进行分析的基础上,选取2003—2017年相关数据为样本构建VAR模型,运用ADF检验、脉冲响应函数等方法从产业结构总水平角度,实证分析得出短期内安徽省OFDI所能带来的产业结构升级效应并不显著的结论。进而从具体传导路径角度,采用主成分分析法,从10个变量中提取主成分构建VAR模型,运用脉冲响应等方法实证分析得出安徽省OFDI可通过贸易、省内投资、就业和技术路径来促进产业结构升级。为此,安徽省应扩大OFDI规模,提升OFDI质量和效益;增强企业竞争实力和科技创新能力,优化对外投资结构;发挥政府宏观调控和政策引导作用,加大对企业的扶持力度。