论改善型民生

根据支撑基础、责任负担、保障水平以及民众需求等维度，可以把民生保障划分为托底型、基本型、改善型以及富裕型等四种类型。改善型民生是经济社会发展到一定阶段的产物，也是国家治理体系与治理能力现代化的客观要求。它是指通过各类民生项目的安排及民生待遇优化以促进民众生活得到持续改善、社会发展水平得到提升的一种制度类型，是民生项目更加齐全、内容更为完善、治理水平更高、使民众各按其分的民生模式，是人们的日常生活与服务消费支出总额持续增长以便能够提升生活水平的民生类型，是那种不断满足人的需要特别是较高层次需要的模式类型，也是更有助于形成社会结构稳定、国家长治久安的民生制度类型，因而具有综合性、完善性、激励性以及发展性等特点。这要求我们优化民生类型设计及民生投入结构，补齐改善型民生短板，营造良好社会秩序，扎实推进国家治理体系及治理能力现代化建设。     

Probabilistic frontier regression models for binary type output data

This paper proposes a probabilistic frontier regression model for binary type output data in a production process setup. We consider one of the two categories of outputs as ‘selected’ category and the reduction in probability of falling in this category is attributed to the reduction in technical efficiency (TE) of the decision-making unit. An efficiency measure is proposed to determine the deviations of individual units from the probabilistic frontier. Simulation results show that the average estimated TE component is close to its true value. An application of the proposed method to the data related to the Indian public sector banking system is provided where the output variable is the indicator of level of non-performing assets. Individual TE is obtained for each of the banks under consideration. Among the public sector banks, Andhra bank is found to be the most efficient, whereas the United Bank of India is the least.     

Strong law of large numbers and complete convergence for non-identically distributed WOD random variables

In this paper, we establish the strong law of large numbers and complete convergence for non-identically distributed WOD random variables. We derive some new inequalities of Fuk–Nagaev type for the sums of non-identically distributed WD random variables. All these results further extend and refine previous ones.     

第一次石油危机后国际能源政治的情境变迁

国际政治的参与情境决定行动者的博弈行为类型，参与情境变迁将导致行动者行为发生变化。能源安全是国家对外政策的核心议题之一。1973年爆发的第一次石油危机，凸显了能源安全问题的重要性，改变了二战后国际能源政治的参与情境，构建了行动者新的博弈类型，调整了国际能源政治行动者的博弈策略。为了有效应对国际能源政治的情境变迁，美国通过协调与其他国家的能源关系，设置能源安全国际议程，最终确定了新的国际能源秩序。当前，我国在积极参与国际能源合作的过程中，第一次石油危机后国际能源政治的情境变迁以及国际社会的应对策略具有十分重要的启示意义。     

Patterns of individual change and program satisfaction in a positive parenting program for parents at psychosocial risk

Despite the evidence of effectiveness of positive parenting programs, little is known about the typology of changes that parents at psychosocial risk undergo after an intervention. We compared individual patterns of change in three parenting outcomes in 256 at risk parents with young children attending the group‐based Growing Up Happily in the Family program delivered in municipal social services. We identified four clusters of individual change: Cluster 1 (30.6%) had negative changes in parental child‐rearing attitudes and parenting stress, Cluster 2 (27.7%) had positive changes in child‐rearing attitudes and negative results in parental perceived competence, and Cluster 3 (24.1%) and Cluster 4 (17.6%) showed overall better results. Residential area, type of social support, and quality of implementation characterized cluster membership. Participants in clusters with better results were more satisfied with the program than those with worse results. Practical recommendations are provided for the successful implementation of group parenting programs in family preservation services.     

Adaptive and repeated cumulative meta‐analyses of safety data during a new drug development process

During a new drug development process, it is desirable to timely detect potential safety signals. For this purpose, repeated meta‐analyses may be performed sequentially on accumulating safety data. Moreover, if the amount of safety data from the originally planned program is not enough to ensure adequate power to test a specific hypothesis (e.g., the noninferiority hypothesis of an event of interest), the total sample size may be increased by adding new studies to the program. Without appropriate adjustment, it is well known that the type I error rate will be inflated because of repeated analyses and sample size adjustment. In this paper, we discuss potential issues associated with adaptive and repeated cumulative meta‐analyses of safety data conducted during a drug development process. We consider both frequentist and Bayesian approaches. A new drug development example is used to demonstrate the application of the methods. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

对海洋霸权与大陆均势关系的再探讨

虽然以往研究海洋霸权与大陆均势关系的成果颇丰,但还是存在一些不足。为此,本文对海洋霸权与大陆均势关系的结构类型、运行机制及其影响等进行了深化与细化。在海洋霸权国国力大于或小于或等于大陆均势中的有关国家的不同情况下,大陆均势可以分为不需要海洋霸权仅凭大陆国家就能形成的大陆均势和需要海洋霸权且支持其中一方才能形成的大陆均势。不同的国力对比和均势构成情况,对海洋霸权与大陆国家的政治安全与经济发展所产生的影响是不同的。经过分析和比较,本文得出结论:海陆分界难分优劣,关系互补战略呼应,这就是美英极力推行海洋霸权与大陆均势战略的现实诠释。     

A study of R2 measure under the accelerated failure time models

For right-censored data, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model is an alternative to the commonly used proportional hazards regression model. It is a linear model for the (log-transformed) outcome of interest, and is particularly useful for censored outcomes that are not time-to-event, such as laboratory measurements. We provide a general and easily computable definition of the R² measure of explained variation under the AFT model for right-censored data. We study its behavior under different censoring scenarios and under different error distributions; in particular, we also study its robustness when the parametric error distribution is misspecified. Based on Monte Carlo investigation results, we recommend the log-normal distribution as a robust error distribution to be used in practice for the parametric AFT model, when the R² measure is of interest. We apply our methodology to an alcohol consumption during pregnancy data set from Ukraine.     

A seasonal mixed-POT model to estimate high flood quantiles from different event types and seasons

Flood events can be caused by several different meteorological circumstances. For example, heavy rain events often lead to short flood events with high peaks, whereas snowmelt normally results in events of very long duration with a high volume. Both event types have to be considered in the design of flood protection systems. Unfortunately, all these different event types are often included in annual maximum series (AMS) leading to inhomogeneous samples. Moreover, certain event types are underrepresented in the AMS. This is especially unsatisfactory if the most extreme events result from such an event type. Therefore, monthly maximum data are used to enlarge the information spectrum on the different event types. Of course, not all events can be included in the flood statistics because not every monthly maximum can be declared as a flood. To take this into account, a mixture Peak-over-threshold model is applied, with thresholds specifying flood events of several types that occur in a season of the year. This model is then extended to cover the seasonal type of the data. The applicability is shown in a German case study, where the impact of the single event types in different parts of a year is evaluated.     

Response‐adaptive designs for binary responses: How to offer patient benefit while being robust to time trends?

Response‐adaptive randomisation (RAR) can considerably improve the chances of a successful treatment outcome for patients in a clinical trial by skewing the allocation probability towards better performing treatments as data accumulates. There is considerable interest in using RAR designs in drug development for rare diseases, where traditional designs are not either feasible or ethically questionable. In this paper, we discuss and address a major criticism levelled at RAR: namely, type I error inflation due to an unknown time trend over the course of the trial. The most common cause of this phenomenon is changes in the characteristics of recruited patients—referred to as patient drift. This is a realistic concern for clinical trials in rare diseases due to their lengthly accrual rate. We compute the type I error inflation as a function of the time trend magnitude to determine in which contexts the problem is most exacerbated. We then assess the ability of different correction methods to preserve type I error in these contexts and their performance in terms of other operating characteristics, including patient benefit and power. We make recommendations as to which correction methods are most suitable in the rare disease context for several RAR rules, differentiating between the 2‐armed and the multi‐armed case. We further propose a RAR design for multi‐armed clinical trials, which is computationally efficient and robust to several time trends considered.