投资者情绪生成机理的研究

基于标准金融理论与行为金融理论相结合的思想，力图刻画投资者情绪的生成机理。以引起投资者情绪变化的货币环境、市场收益、市场波动、相关资产收益等因素为起点，引入市场投资价值、市场预期两个中间变量，建立了包含直接和间接影响两类路径的投资者情绪生成概念模型。使用中国股市2014年7月1日至2017年3月31日间的667组日度数据，在VAR建模的基础上开展实证研究。实证结果表明市场收益对投资者情绪具有直接的正向影响，市场波动和相关资产收益两因素基于市场预期中介变量间接负向作用于投资者情绪，而修正后引入的经济周期波动变量可以基于市场投资价值中介变量对投资者情绪产生正向影响，并进一步发现了市场收益、市场投资价值与投资者情绪之间存在正反馈强化过程。研究揭示出了投资者情绪生成的影响因素体系及其实现路径，将该领域研究深入到机理分析层面，并从一个侧面佐证了中国股市过度投机行为的存在。     

Fast and rigorous: Configurational determinants of strategic decision-making balance

A longstanding debate in the strategic decision-making literature has focused on whether top management teams (TMTs) can effectively balance speed and comprehensiveness when making important decisions. In our research, we build on early insights and pivot from considering whether TMTs can engage indecision-making that balances these tensions to focus instead on when certain types of TMTs are able to achieve such balance. We employ a novel configurational analytical approach and a theoretical framework built from role theory to examine the CEO-TMT interface in a new way. In so doing, we are able to identify specific CEO-TMT constellations that support decision-making that is both fast and rigorous. Using a unique primary dataset and an abductive, configurational approach grounded in fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), we identify six specific leader-team configurations that each facilitate decision processes characterized by rigorous intra-team debate, meaningful reconciliation of divergent ideas, and fast decision speed (which we describe as strategic decision-making balance). The range of CEO-TMT configurations that emerge from our analyses contribute new theory and findings for the strategic decision-making and interface literatures more broadly, as well as the specific research streams on executive gender, humility, and TMT structure.     

以人民为中心的发展思想研究现状与展望

自党的十八届五中全会提出坚持“以人民为中心的发展思想”以来,专家学者从价值意蕴、科学内涵、理论生成、与其他理论的关系,以及贯彻落实等方面进行了研究并取得丰富的研究成果。但目前的研究也存一些不足,未来研究应坚持问题导向,注重解决人民群众的实际问题;拓宽研究视野,增强研究深度和广度;加强对领导干部如何践行以人民为中心的发展思想的研究,使得以人民为中心的发展思想进头脑、促实践、出成效。     

The Need to Reconcile Concepts that Characterize Systems Facing Threats

Desirable system performance in the face of threats has been characterized by various management concepts. Through semistructured interviews with editors of journals in the fields of emergency response and systems management, a literature review, and professional judgment, we identified nine related and often interchangeably used system performance concepts: adaptability, agility, reliability, resilience, resistance, robustness, safety, security, and sustainability. A better understanding of these concepts will allow system planners to pursue management strategies best suited to their unique system dynamics and specific objectives of good performance. We analyze expert responses and review the linguistic definitions and mathematical framing of these concepts to understand their applications. We find a lack of consensus on their usage between interview subjects, but by using the mathematical framing to enrich the linguistic definitions, we formulate comparative visualizations and propose distinct definitions for the nine concepts. We present a conceptual framing to relate the concepts for management purposes.     

On quantile residuals in beta regression

Beta regression is often used to model the relationship between a dependent variable that assumes values on the open interval (0, 1) and a set of predictor variables. An important challenge in beta regression is to find residuals whose distribution is well approximated by the standard normal distribution. Two previous works compared residuals in beta regression, but the authors did not include the quantile residual. Using Monte Carlo simulation techniques, this article studies the behavior of certain residuals in beta regression in several scenarios. Overall, the results suggest that the distribution of the quantile residual is better approximated by the standard normal distribution than that of the other residuals in most scenarios. Three applications illustrate the effectiveness of the quantile residual.     

“人类命运共同体”语境下国际法价值理性的增进

国际法在长期的实践当中存在着价值理性弱化的困境，价值理性的趋弱使得国际社会忽视国际法在国际治理中的地位，人类命运共同体理念的出世为国际法价值理性的增进带来曙光。当前人类命运共同体理念已初具影响力，国内政策报告已有初步的系统阐述，该理念在联合国决议中多次出现，表明人类命运共同体在为国际法提供"价值指向"方面有极大的发展潜力。人类命运共同体语言系统中的诸多表述对于国际法价值理性的增进皆有启示意义，从内部形态塑造来看，该理念对于"善治"价值中的"合法性""善意遵守"皆有指导性的表述，从外部环境改良来看，该理念可与"合作"价值下的风险防范、角色定位两方面相联结。为确立具备可操作性的国际法价值理性增进路径，中国、国际组织乃至全球国家都需要扮演好相应的角色，为在人类命运共同体指引下增进国际法的价值理性而努力。     

Effects of mediator competence and mediation process on user satisfaction with child custody,finances, and property outcomes

This study draws on survey data from 205 family mediation service users concerning their satisfaction with the outcomes of mediation to address two research questions: (a) how satisfied are service users? and (b) what factors account for users' satisfaction with the outcome of child custody arrangements and the allocation of finances and property? Overall, users' level of satisfaction with outcomes was high. While the mediation process explained a significant variance in satisfaction with the outcomes for child custody and for finances and property, the mediator's perceived professional competence did not predict user satisfaction with the outcomes for either issue. This study contributes to our knowledge on the significance of mediators' process skill, specifically their calm and clear responses to the socioemotional needs of the mediated parties, on the service outcomes for both types of dispute. The implications for mediation training are discussed.     

Assessing the market values of soccer players – a robust analysis of data from German 1. and 2. Bundesliga

The paper examines to what extent a player's market value depends on his skills. Therefore, a data set covering 28 performance measures and the market values of about 493 players from 1. and 2. German Bundesliga is analysed. Applying robust analysis techniques, we are able to robustly estimate market values of soccer players. The results show (1) that there are significantly underrated and overrated players and (2) that a player's affiliation to a certain team may contribute to his market value. We conclude that a club's reputation affects the market values of its players and that star players are in tendency overrated.     

基于信号博弈的卖方欺诈行为分析

本文主要基于信号博弈的卖方欺诈行为进行研究，假设拍卖中可能存在欺诈型和诚实型两种卖家，其中欺诈行为有概率发生在第二价格拍卖中：欺诈型卖方冒充竞拍者递交仅次于最高价的报价从而获得额外收益。两种卖家根据各自效用选择拍卖形式：第一价格或者第二价格。而竞买者将卖者的选择作为信号，更新对卖方类型的判断，然后制定报价策略。这是一个买卖方信号交叉影响的过程。考虑到拍卖过程中买方价值相关性，本文在建立模型中参考了关联价值原理。针对该模型进行分析，得出了不同情况下的买卖方策略，并且研究了买方报价、买方判断、卖方收益三者之间的关系。文中利用贝叶斯公式对双方的策略选择问题进行预测，与单纯的概率分布方法相比，更具实践价值。