BUILDING THE EVIDENCE BASE FROM LONGITUDINAL DATA

Survey data from cross-sectional snapshots give an incomplete picture of the social fabric. Without longitudinal information, planners, practitioners, social scientists and policy makers would be in the dark about dynamics, durations and pathways of human development. Longitudinal data collected in birth cohort studies give a better guide to long-term processes and outcomes and are more informative about the causal relations that are the drivers of disadvantage or success. The content and structure of Britain's Birth Cohort Studies are described to illustrate the challenges of creating and studying longitudinal evidence. Examples of findings and policies based on these prospective longitudinal studies are given, along with a discussion of the practical decisions that have to be confronted in undertaking them.     

Membranes, mitochondria and amoebae: shape models

Most real-world shapes and images are characterized by high variability- they are not rigid, like crystals, for example—but they are strongly structured. Therefore, a fundamental task in the understanding and analysis of such image ensembles is the construction of models that incorporate both variability and structure in a mathematically precise way. The global shape models introduced in Grenander's general pattern theory are intended to do this. In this paper, we describe the representation of two-dimensional mitochondria and membranes in electron microscope photographs, and three-dimensional amoebae in optical sectioning microscopy. There are three kinds of variability to all of these patterns, which these representations accommodate. The first is the variability in shape and viewing orientation. For this, the typical structure is represented via linear, circular and spherical templates, with the variability accomodated via the application of transformations applied to the templates. The transformations form groups: scale, rotation and translation. They are locally applied throughout the continuum and of high dimension. The second is the textural variability; the inside and outside of these basic shapes are subject to random variation, as well as sensor noise. For this, statistical sensor models and Markov random field texture models are used to connect the constituent structures of the shapes to the measured data. The third variability type is associated with the fact that each scene is made up of a variable number of shapes; this number is not assumed to be known a priori. Each scene has a variable number of parameters encoding the transformations of the templates appropriate for that scene. For this, a single posterior distribution is defined over the countable union of spaces representing models of varying numbers of shapes. Bayesian inference is performed via computation of the conditional expectation of the parametrically defined shapes under the posterior. These conditional mean estimates are generated using jump-diffusion processes. Results for membranes, mitochondria and amoebae are shown.     

The status of women among the scheduled tribes in India

The scheduled tribes constitute about 8.2% of the total population in India. Although there is a large volume of anthropological literature describing the characteristics of and differences among the various tribes in India, little inter-disciplinary research has been done to uncover the status of women among the tribal population in India. This paper will analyze the status of women among the scheduled tribes in India. Frequent comparisons will be made to the social and cultural practices of the scheduled tribes, mainstream Hindus, as well as the scheduled caste population. Through this analysis, we will show the distinctiveness of the tribal cultures and the fact that many women from the scheduled tribes face less discrimination than Hindu women and those from scheduled castes.     

Re-Defining the Who,When, and Where of Mentoring for Professional Statisticians

Organizations tailor their mentoring strategies to accommodate internal resources and preferences, producing different approaches in academic, government, and corporate environments. Across these settings, three common barriers impede effective mentoring of statisticians: overspecialization, time constraints, and geographic dispersion. The authors share mentoring strategies that have emerged at their organization, Mathematica Policy Research, to overcome these obstacles. Practices include creating a methodology working group to unite researchers with diverse backgrounds, integrating mentoring into existing workflows, and harnessing modern technological infrastructure to facilitate virtual mentoring. Although these strategies emerged within a specific professional context, they suggest opportunities for statisticians to expand the channels through which mentorship can occur.     

Does mother’s employment conflict with child development? Multilevel analysis of British mothers born in 1958

Does maternal employment, while children are very young, affect their development? We link cognitive and behavioral scores of school-aged children to mothers’ employment during preschool years using virtually unique data for two generations in the 1958 British birth cohort. Our multivariate, multilevel model controls for mothers’ own cognitive and behavioral scores in childhood. Results are mixed and minor, confirming other British studies at mid-childhood. Reading is, significantly, slightly poorer where less educated mothers work in the child’s first year of life. We found few other interactions with employment but did detect intergenerational transmission of behavioral and cognitive characteristics.     

Materials receiving capacity and inventory management

This paper analyses the optimal level of materials receiving capacity for a manufacturer that receives deliveries from many suppliers. Inventory levels and inventory carrying costs depend on the frequency of deliveries and thus, on the materials receiving capacity. An analytic model that captures the tradeoff between inventory costs and materials receiving costs is presented and discussed. The receiving cost is modeled as increasing in discrete jumps of varying sizes whenever materials receiving resources are added. Practical issues in implementing the model are highlighted and methods to reduce the marginal materials receiving cost are discussed. The paper also discusses connections to the JIT approach for production environments where materials receiving is heavily automated.     

Bayesian prediction of waiting times in stochastic models

The authors show how saddlepoint techniques lead to highly accurate approximations for Bayesian predictive densities and cumulative distribution functions in stochastic model settings where the prior is tractable, but not necessarily the likelihood or the predictand distribution. They consider more specifically models involving predictions associated with waiting times for semi‐Markov processes whose distributions are indexed by an unknown parameter θ. Bayesian prediction for such processes when they are not stationary is also addressed and the inverse‐Gaussian based saddlepoint approximation of Wood, Booth & Butler (1993) is shown to accurately deal with the nonstationarity whereas the normal‐based Lugannani & Rice (1980) approximation cannot, Their methods are illustrated by predicting various waiting times associated with M/M/q and M/G/1 queues. They also discuss modifications to the matrix renewal theory needed for computing the moment generating functions that are used in the saddlepoint methods.     

Human Capital Attainment and Gender Empowerment: The Kerala Paradox*

Objectives. The State of Kerala in southwestern India shows the highest gender development index in the country. Despite having the highest literacy rate and educational achievements of women, the suicide rate among females is very high, and domestic violence committed against women is increasing every year in Kerala. This article attempts to analyze the demographic, social, and cultural changes that are occurring in order to understand this apparent paradox of high human capital attainment and high violence and suicides experienced by women in Kerala. Methods. The study uses data from the Census of India (1991, 2001) , National Crime Records Bureau (1998–2000), and Reproductive and Child Health ( District Level House Hold Survey—2001 ) to analyze trends in crime, violence, and suicide rates, and demographic profiles of the different districts in Kerala. Results. High educational attainment has fostered new aspirations and attitudes among women in Kerala. Yet, societal and cultural norms still dictate that women should be subservient to men both at home and in the labor market. This imbalance often contributes to family violence and suicides in Kerala. Thus, beneath the veil of development lie some disturbing social, cultural, and economic issues that may be contributing to high rates of suicide and family violence in Kerala. Conclusions. This study demonstrates that high educational attainment alone will not promote gender empowerment unless the social and cultural fabric of a country or state ensures equality of women in all areas of life.     

The Pune Slum Census: creating a socio-economic and spatial information base on a GIS for integrated and inclusive city development

Urban planning systems rarely include the poor. Cities are growing and so is the urban population. Pune is a large city in Western Maharashtra. According to the National Census, 2001, the population of the Pune urban agglomeration is 3.5 million and it is (in some estimates) to reach nearly 6 million by 2021.¹ Out of this, the city of Pune has a 2.5 million people living in it. Forty percent and above of the population live in slums. One of the biggest shortfalls of Pune's urban planning is that it still fails to include the poor in mainstream policies. The reason is that the poor are hardly known about, in fact, even government authorities are unaware about how many poor people there are in Pune. This attitude, and the fact that Shelter Associates (SA) work is closely connected with the poor regarding basic services and housing, started the development of a slum database by SA. Finally, the Pune Municipal Corporation asked us to make a complete census of the slum dwellers in the year 2000. That gave rise to a detailed survey of Pune's slum dwellers, to become, amongst other things, the first ever spatial and socio-economic census processed and analysed on a geographical information system (GIS). The Pune Slum Census has built upon this experience and expanded the communities’ information base, and has created a methodology which the city can use to work on detailed urban planning using a GIS and with the slum database as the base. This article focuses on the Pune Slum Census in progress.     

A generalization of mosteller's test

A generalization of Mosteller's test for slippage of the location parameter is proposed. The distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis is obtained and the power of the test is compared with that of Mosteller's test