A Probabilistic Framework for Risk Analysis of Widespread Flood Events: A Proof‐of‐Concept Study

This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top‐kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a model chain. Eventually, the expected annual flood impact (e.g., expected annual damages) and the flood impact associated with a low probability of occurrence are determined for a study area. The risk model has the potential to augment the understanding of flood risk in a region and thereby contribute to enhanced risk management of, for example, risk analysts and policymakers or insurance companies. The modeling framework was successfully applied in a proof‐of‐concept exercise in Vorarlberg (Austria). The results of the case study show that risk analysis has to be based on spatially heterogeneous flood events in order to estimate flood risk adequately.     

Progressive censoring with fixed censoring times

In this paper, we revisit the progressive Type-I censoring scheme as it has originally been introduced by Cohen [Progressively censored samples in life testing. Technometrics. 1963;5(3):327–339]. In fact, original progressive Type-I censoring proceeds as progressive Type-II censoring but with fixed censoring times instead of failure time based censoring times. Apparently, a time truncation has been added to this censoring scheme by interpreting the final censoring time as a termination time. Therefore, not much work has been done on Cohens's original progressive censoring scheme with fixed censoring times. Thus, we discuss distributional results for this scheme and establish exact distributional results in likelihood inference for exponentially distributed lifetimes. In particular, we obtain the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). Further, the stochastic monotonicity of the MLE is verified in order to construct exact confidence intervals for both the scale parameter and the reliability.     

TERRITORIAL RESTRICTIONS IN FRANCHISE CONTRACTS

Efficient contracts set incentives through the assignment of rights and profit shares., Although efficient contracts have been used to explain the nature of the firm, the use of contractual rights in specific business contracts is relatively unexplored. We analyze contractual rights in franchise systems, in particular the right to add franchisees. An exclusive territory assigned to an initial franchisee is not an immutable guarantee, but rather a starting point for subsequent renegotiation in the franchise relationship. Exclusivity is therefore profitable when franchisee efforts are critical to the venture. A sample of franchise contracts reveals evidence consistent with the model's prediction.     

The Determinants of Racial Disparities in Perceived Job Insecurity: A Test of Three Perspectives

Why do African Americans report higher levels of perceived job insecurity than whites? We analyze data from the 1996 and 1998 General Social Survey to test alternative predictions from the compositional, inclusive‐discrimination, and dispositional perspectives concerning the sources of the racial gap in perceived insecurity. Results from ordered probit regressions provide most support for the inclusive‐discrimination perspective, which maintains that employment practices associated with “modern racial prejudice” induce perceived insecurity on a widespread and generalized basis among African Americans. Accordingly, compared to whites, African Americans experience perceived insecurity net of human capital credentials and job/labor market characteristics. Additional analyses provide one qualification to these findings: dynamics associated with the inclusive‐discrimination perspective are more pronounced in the private sector than the public sector.     

The Impact of Items and Anchors on Parent–Child Reports of Problem Behavior

Research has repeatedly demonstrated that parent and child reports of child behavior and emotional functioning often do not agree in terms of symptom severity or even symptom presence. Given the potential clinical impact that discrepant reports may have on the therapeutic process, a significant amount of research has addressed the factors influencing this observed discrepancy. Traditionally, this research has evaluated the impact of demographic factors on mean differences and obtained correlation coefficients between parent and child reports. The current research improves upon previous research in this area in two ways. First, the current research uses parent and child measures with identical rather than similar items as is commonly found in previous research. Second, the current research moves beyond identifying demographic influences on discrepant reports by explaining observed discrepancies in terms of differences in parent and child perceptions of typical child behavior.David Carlston and Benjamin Ogles are affiliated with Department of Psychology, Ohio University, Athens, USA.Funding for this project was provided by the Ohio Department of Mental Health.     

Sweatshops and third world living standards: Are the jobs worth the sweat?

Many studies have shown that multinational firms pay more than domestic firms in Third World countries. Economists who criticize sweatshops have responded that multinational firms’ wage data do not address whether sweatshop jobs are above average because many of these jobs are with domestic subcontractors. We compare apparel industry wages and the wages of individual firms accused of being sweatshops to measures of the standard of living in Third World economies. We find that most sweatshop jobs provide their workers an above average standard of living. The authors thank Jeffery Hummel, Charles Murray, Larry Pratt, and Edward Stringham for helpful comments on earlier drafts. Financial support from the American Institute for Economic Research is gratefully acknowledged. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Using a Verbal Analysis of Lady Gaga’s Applause as a Classroom Exercise for Teaching Verbal Behavior

The Analysis of Verbal Behavior - Learning Skinner’s (1957) verbal behavior taxonomy requires extensive study and practice. Thus, novel classroom exercises might serve this goal. The present...     

Differentiated leader–member exchange,justice climate,and performance: Main and interactive effects

Leaders form different quality leader–member exchange (LMX) relationships with their subordinates. This variable treatment termed LMX differentiation can have negative effects on individuals' behavior and attitudes. In this study, we examined the cross-level main effect of justice climate on task performance and the moderating role of justice climate on the relationship between LMX differentiation and task performance. We tested these two hypotheses using a field study of 90 subordinates nested under 27 supervisors. Procedural justice climate, not distributive justice climate, was found to positively influence subordinate task performance. Further, distributive justice climate, not procedural justice climate, was found to moderate the LMX differentiation–task performance relationship; such that the relationship was positive when distributive justice climate was high and negative when distributive justice climate was low. Findings and future directions are discussed.     

What Drives Citizen Participation in Political Gatherings in Modern South Africa? A Quantitative Analysis of Self-Reported Behaviour

Social Indicators Research - Community and public gatherings are an important component of political participation in sub-Saharan Africa. Formal and informal community meetings and rallies are...