Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States

Pandemic influenza represents a serious threat not only to the population of the United States, but also to its economy. In this study, we analyze the total economic consequences of potential influenza outbreaks in the United States for four cases based on the distinctions between disease severity and the presence/absence of vaccinations. The analysis is based on data and parameters on influenza obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and the general literature. A state‐of‐the‐art economic impact modeling approach, computable general equilibrium, is applied to analyze a wide range of potential impacts stemming from the outbreaks. This study examines the economic impacts from changes in medical expenditures and workforce participation, and also takes into consideration different types of avoidance behavior and resilience actions not previously fully studied. Our results indicate that, in the absence of avoidance and resilience effects, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in a loss in U.S. GDP of $25.4 billion, but that vaccination could reduce the losses to $19.9 billion. When behavioral and resilience factors are taken into account, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in GDP losses of $45.3 billion without vaccination and $34.4 billion with vaccination. These results indicate the importance of including a broader set of causal factors to achieve more accurate estimates of the total economic impacts of not just pandemic influenza but biothreats in general. The results also highlight a number of actionable items that government policymakers and public health officials can use to help reduce potential economic losses from the outbreaks.     

Advantages of Group Therapy for Adolescent Participants in the Same Gang Rape

This paper deals with the issue of including in the same therapeutic group in a prison setting two (or more) young people who participated in the same gang rape. We provide a background for group therapy with adolescent sex offenders and point out the characteristics of group rape. In addition, we describe the uniqueness of working in a prison as opposed to working in the community or other settings outside the home. Characteristics of adolescent sex offenders and the group process provide a rationale against the inclusion in the same therapeutic group of two youths who committed a rape together. However, our observations during eight years of clinical experience and research in the prison clarify why it can and should be done.     

Flu,Risks, and Videotape: Escalating Fear and Avoidance

While extensive risk perception research has focused on emotions, cognitions, and behavior at static points in time, less attention has been paid to how these variables might change over time. This study assesses how negative affect, threat beliefs, perceived risk, and intended avoidance behavior change over the course of an escalating biological disaster. A scenario simulation methodology was used that presents respondents with a video simulation of a 15‐day series of local news reports to immerse respondents in the developing details of the disaster. Systemic manipulation of the virus's causal origin (terrorist attack, medical lab accident, unknown) and the respondent's proximity to the virus (local vs. opposite coast) allowed us to investigate the dynamics of public response. The unfolding scenario was presented in discrete episodes, allowing responses to be tracked over the episodes. The sample includes 600 respondents equally split by sex and by location, with half in the Washington, DC area, and half in the Los Angeles area. The results showed respondents’ reactions to the flu epidemic increased as the disaster escalated. More importantly, there was considerable consistency across respondents’ emotional, cognitive, and behavioral responses to the epidemic over the episodes. In addition, the reactions of respondents proximally closer to the epidemic increased more rapidly and with greater intensity than their distant counterparts. Finally, as the flu epidemic escalated, both terrorist and accidental flu releases were perceived as being less risky and were less likely to lead to avoidance behavior compared to the unknown flu release.     

The Making of the 2011 Revision of the Integrating Resources Manual

Abstract

This installment of Electronic Journal Forum describes the steps taken to revise Integrating Resources: A Cataloging Manual, which was first published in 2003. The revision reflects recent changes in MARC 21 coding and Program for Cooperative Cataloging practices, including provider-neutral record guidance. Examples in the manual were reviewed and purged of inconsistencies in coding.     

Gender differences in positive and negative self-assessments of health status in a national epidemiological study of Israeli aged

The literature in subjective health appraisals frequently notes that elderly women, more so than men, generally experience a lower quality of life in all major indicators (physical health status, functional ability, perceived income adequacy, social contacts, psychological distress, and cognitive ability). The current epidemiological study, of 1,352 reporting Israeli subjects between the ages of 75-94, was undertaken in order to obtain reliable estimates of "poor" and "excellent/good" self assessments of health in a national sample of aged; to identify the most significant correlates of "poor" and "excellent/good" assessments; and to ascertain whether the models of "poor" and "good/excellent" subjective health are different for elderly men and women. While it was found that women indeed rate their health as being poorer than men, of greater theoretical interest was the finding that the pattern of variables predicting to "poor" and "good/excellent" health are different for men and women. The findings point to the fact that the simple health self-evaluation question is not a unitary construct, but rather a complex attitudinal measure which yields different structural and conceptual results when controlling for the subjective health outcome ("poor" or "good/excellent") and when analyzing gender-dichotomized models.     

Self reflection(s): Subjectivity and racial subordination in the contemporary African‐American writer

Abstract

Shelby Steele's The Content of our Character, and John Wideman's Philadelphia Fire are contrasted for what they reveal about the two authors’ confrontation with self‐expression and self‐definition in a society that denies African‐American individuality. I argue that Steele's and Wideman's distinctive solutions to personal expression as demonstrated in these works constitute the discursive boundaries, the poles between which black male subjectivity oscillates in this racialist society. To explicate these particular positions, I draw on psychoanalytic concepts of narcissism, masculinity, and subjectivity. Thomas Mann's Death in Venice is invoked to articulate, albeit in a different society and context, the subjective crisis of the intellectual, the linkage between one's inner world and outer society, and the relation between personal identity and national self‐understanding. While Steele opts for an isolated, transcendent individualism, Wideman embraces a conception of self inextricably connected to and constrained by the wider African‐American community. I argue that each ‘solution’ produces its own form of self‐estrangement, revealing the phychic cost and intractability of racial division in America.