Nested exposure case-control sampling: a sampling scheme to analyze rare time-dependent exposures

For large cohort studies with rare outcomes, the nested case-control design only requires data collection of small subsets of the individuals at risk. These are typically randomly sampled at the observed event times and a weighted, stratified analysis takes over the role of the full cohort analysis. Motivated by observational studies on the impact of hospital-acquired infection on hospital stay outcome, we are interested in situations, where not necessarily the outcome is rare, but time-dependent exposure such as the occurrence of an adverse event or disease progression is. Using the counting process formulation of general nested case-control designs, we propose three sampling schemes where not all commonly observed outcomes need to be included in the analysis. Rather, inclusion probabilities may be time-dependent and may even depend on the past sampling and exposure history. A bootstrap analysis of a full cohort data set from hospital epidemiology allows us to investigate the practical utility of the proposed sampling schemes in comparison to a full cohort analysis and a too simple application of the nested case-control design, if the outcome is not rare.

     

制造企业服务业务扩展及其认知因素研究

制造企业的竞争越来越激烈,几乎所有的企业都要面对快速反应多变市场和应对价格压力的要求,面对越来越小的产品利润空间和越来越复杂的客户需求,本文从对工业服务管理文献分析和制造企业的调查研究入手,揭示了制造企业从纯粹的产品生产者向客户支持方案提供者发展的转移趋势.通过对瑞士和德国30多家机器和设备制造企业进行的调查研究,说明了服务业务对制造企业在开发财务、营销和战略机会上的重要作用,并对转移过程中服务业务的扩展过程进行了总结.结合具体企业实践,本文对制约制造企业扩展服务业务中在管理动机上的认知因素进行了分析和研究.结合中国加入WTO后,中国制造企业将全面融入国际竞争的背景,本文期望对中国制造企业的发展和竞争地位的提高提供理论和实践上的指导.     

Impaired Probability Estimation and Decision-Making in Pathological Gambling Poker Players

Poker has gained tremendous popularity in recent years, increasing the risk for some individuals to develop pathological gambling. Here, we investigated cognitive biases in a computerized two-player poker task against a fictive opponent, among 12 pathological gambling poker players (PGP), 10 experienced poker players (ExP), and 11 inexperienced poker players (InP). Players were compared on probability estimation and decision-making with the hypothesis that ExP would have significantly lower cognitive biases than PGP and InP, and that the groups could be differentiated based on their cognitive bias styles. The results showed that ExP had a significantly lower average error margin in probability estimation than PGP and InP, and that PGP played hands with lower winning probability than ExP. Binomial logistic regression showed perfect differentiation (100%) between ExP and PGP, and 90.5% classification accuracy between ExP and InP. Multinomial logistic regression showed an overall classification accuracy of 23 out of 33 (69.7%) between the three groups. The classification accuracy of ExP was higher than that of PGP and InP due to the similarities in probability estimation and decision-making between PGP and InP. These impairments in probability estimation and decision-making of PGP may have implications for assessment and treatment of cognitive biases in pathological gambling poker players.     

基于供应链管理的制造企业服务管理体系的建构

制造企业的供应链构成十分复杂，为明确管理标的首先对管理主体进行了界定，通过对工业服务研究文献分析揭示了制造企业从产品向服务转移的发展趋势。按照以制造企业为管理主体向上下游扩展的分析途径从工业服务需求、服务内部管理及服务业务开发角度分析了基于供应链的制造企业服务管理战略框架，以期为制造企业服务管理理论研究及实践提供借鉴。     

Was Achtsamkeitstrainings bewirken und wie sie in Organisationen wirksamer werden

In this article in the journal Gruppe. Interaktion. Organisation (GIO) we discuss the impact of individual mindfulness trainings on organizations. Therefore, we combine research on high reliability organizations with aspects of the newer sociologist system theory. First we seek to define the construct of mindfulness and we distinguish between individual and collective mindfulness as two different qualities of mindfulness. Using an example from the banking sector we discuss the challenges developing mindfulness in organizations and what intervention strategies could work. We distinguish between the three system levels psyche, interaction and organization. Doing this it becomes clear that interventions have to consider the coupling of the three different levels: How interventions have to be designed to effect all three levels?