Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks using dynamic discretization

We consider approximate inference in hybrid Bayesian Networks (BNs) and present a new iterative algorithm that efficiently combines dynamic discretization with robust propagation algorithms on junction trees. Our approach offers a significant extension to Bayesian Network theory and practice by offering a flexible way of modeling continuous nodes in BNs conditioned on complex configurations of evidence and intermixed with discrete nodes as both parents and children of continuous nodes. Our algorithm is implemented in a commercial Bayesian Network software package, AgenaRisk, which allows model construction and testing to be carried out easily. The results from the empirical trials clearly show how our software can deal effectively with different type of hybrid models containing elements of expert judgment as well as statistical inference. In particular, we show how the rapid convergence of the algorithm towards zones of high probability density, make robust inference analysis possible even in situations where, due to the lack of information in both prior and data, robust sampling becomes unfeasible.     

Using Bayesian Networks to Model Expected and Unexpected Operational Losses

This report describes the use of Bayesian networks (BNs) to model statistical loss distributions in financial operational risk scenarios. Its focus is on modeling "long" tail, or unexpected, loss events using mixtures of appropriate loss frequency and severity distributions where these mixtures are conditioned on causal variables that model the capability or effectiveness of the underlying controls process. The use of causal modeling is discussed from the perspective of exploiting local expertise about process reliability and formally connecting this knowledge to actual or hypothetical statistical phenomena resulting from the process. This brings the benefit of supplementing sparse data with expert judgment and transforming qualitative knowledge about the process into quantitative predictions. We conclude that BNs can help combine qualitative data from experts and quantitative data from historical loss databases in a principled way and as such they go some way in meeting the requirements of the draft Basel II Accord (Basel, 2004) for an advanced measurement approach (AMA).     

An Improved Procedure of Estimating the Finite Population Mean Using Auxiliary Information in the Presence of Random Non Response

This article deals with the problem of estimation of the finite population mean using auxiliary information in the presence of random non response. Three different situations where random non response occurs either in study variate, or in auxiliary variate, or in both the variates, have been discussed. The asymptotically optimum estimators (AOEs) for each strategy are also identified. Expressions of biases and mean squared errors of the proposed estimators have been derived up to the first degree of approximation. Proposed estimators have been compared with the usual unbiased estimator, ratio estimator, and product estimator in the presence of random non response. Empirical studies are also carried out to show the performance of the proposed estimators over other estimators.     

A modified estimator of population mean using power transformation

Summary In this paper we have suggested two modified estimators of population mean using power transformation. It has been shown that the modified estimators are more efficient than the sample mean estimator, usual ratio estimator, Sisodia and Dwivedi’s (1981) estimator and Upadhyaya and Singh’s (1999) estimator at their optimum conditions. Empirical illustrations are also given for examining the merits of the proposed estimators. Following Kadilar and Cingi (2003) the work has been extended to stratified random sampling, and the same data set has been studied to examine the performance in stratified random sampling.     

Generalized ratio-cum-product type exponential estimator in stratified random sampling

ABSTRACT

In this article, we propose a generalized ratio-cum-product type exponential estimator for estimating population mean in stratified random sampling. Asymptotic expression of the bias and mean squared error of the proposed estimator are obtained. Asymptotic optimum estimator in the proposed estimator has been obtained with its mean squared error formula. Conditions under which the proposed estimator is more efficient than usual unbiased estimator, combined ratio and product type estimators, Singh et al. (2008 Singh, R., Kumar, M., Singh, R.D., Chaudhary, M.K. (2008). Exponential ratio type estimators in stratified random sampling. Presented in International Symposium on Optimisation and Statistics (I.S.O.S) at A.M.U., Dec. 2008, 29–31, Aligarh, India. [Google Scholar]) estimators and Tailor and Chouhan (2014 Tailor, R., Chouhan, S. (2014). Ratio-cum-product type exponential estimator of finite population mean in stratified random sampling. Commun. Statist. Theor. Meth. 43:343–354.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) estimator are obtained. An empirical study has also been carried out.     

Ratio-Cum-Product Type Exponential Estimator of Finite Population Mean in Stratified Random Sampling

This article addresses the problem of estimating the finite population mean in stratified random sampling using auxiliary information. Motivated by Singh (1967 Singh , M. P. ( 1967 ). Ratio cum product method of estimation . Metrika 12 : 34 – 42 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) and Bahl and Tuteja (1991 Bahl , S. , Tuteja , R. K. ( 1991 ). Ratio and product type exponential estimator . Inform. Optimiz. Sci. 12 ( 1 ): 159 – 163 .[Taylor &; Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]) a ratio-cum-product type exponential estimator has been suggested and its bias and mean squared error have been derived under large sample approximation. Suggested estimator has been compared with usual unbiased estimator of population mean in stratified random sampling, combined ratio estimator, combined product estimator, ratio and product type exponential estimator of Singh et al. (2008 Singh , R. , Kumar , M. , Singh , R. D. , Chaudhary , M. K. ( 2008 ). Exponential ratio type estimators in stratified random sampling. Presented in International Symposium on Optimisation and Statistics (I.S.O.S) at A.M.U., Aligarh, India, during 29–31 Dec . [Google Scholar]). Conditions under which suggested estimator is more efficient than other considered estimators have been obtained. A numerical illustration is given in support of the theoretical findings.     

Improved Ratio- and Product-Type Exponential Estimators for Population Mean in Case of Post-Stratification

This paper discusses the problem of estimation of population mean in case of post-stratification. Improved ratio- and product-type exponential estimators of finite population mean are suggested with their case of post-stratification. Bias and mean-squared error of the suggested estimators are obtained up to the first degree of approximation. Suggested estimators have been compared with unbiased estimator, ratio estimator, and product estimator in case of post-stratification. An empirical study has been carried out to demonstrate the performance of the suggested estimator.     

Estimation of Ratio of Two Finite-Population Means in the Presence of Non Response

It is well known that a ranked set sample under perfect ranking provides more information than an i.i.d. sample of the same size. Then it may be interesting to study how much information is lost due to imperfect ranking. In this article, we consider some ranking mechanisms and study the loss of the Fisher information according to the degree of imperfect ranking. Then we continue to discuss the optimal combination of the sample size and number of strata in terms of maximizing the Fisher information for the bivariate normal and exponential distributions.     

Hartley-Ross Type Estimators for Population Mean Using Known Parameters of Auxiliary Variate

This article proposes Hartley-Ross type unbiased estimators of finite population mean using information on known parameters of auxiliary variate when the study variate and auxiliary variate are positively correlated. The variances of the proposed unbiased estimators are obtained. It has been shown that the proposed estimators are more efficient than the simple mean estimator, usual ratio estimator and estimators proposed by Sisodia and Dwivedi (1981 Sisodia , B. V. S. , Dwivedi , V. K. ( 1981 ). A modified ratio estimator using coefficient of variation of auxiliary variable . J. Indian Soc. Agricultural Statist. 33 ( 1 ): 13 – 18 . [Google Scholar]), Kadilar and Cingi (2006 Kadilar , C. , Cingi , H. ( 2006 ). A new ratio estimator using correlation coefficient . Int. Statist. 1 – 11 . [Google Scholar]), and Kadilar et al. (2007 Kadilar , C. , Candan , M. , Cingi , H. ( 2007 ). Ratio estimators using robust regression . Hacet. J. Math. Statist. 36 ( 2 ): 181 – 188 .[Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) under certain realistic conditions. Empirical studies are also carried out to demonstrate the merits of the proposed unbiased estimators over other estimators considered in this article.     

Efficient separate class of estimators of population mean in stratified random sampling

In this paper, efficient class of estimators for population mean using two auxiliary variates is suggested. It has been shown that the suggested estimator is more efficient than usual unbiased estimator in stratified random sampling, usual ratio and product-type estimators, Tailor and Lone (2012 Tailor, R. and Lone, H. A. (2012). Separate ratio-cum- product estimators of finite population mean using auxiliary information. J. Rajasthan Stat. Assoc. 1(2):94–102. [Google Scholar], 2014) estimators, and other considered estimators. The bias and mean-squared error of the suggested estimator are obtained up to the first degree of approximation. Conditions under which the suggested estimator is more efficient than other considered estimators are obtained. An empirical study has been carried out to demonstrate the performances of the suggested estimator.