Supply Constraint from Earthquakes in Japan in Input–Output Analysis

Disasters often cause exogenous flow damage (i.e., the [hypothetical] difference in economic scale with and without a disaster in a certain period) to production (“supply constraint”). However, input-output (IO) analysis (IOA) cannot usually consider it, because the Leontief quantity model (LQM) assumes that production is endogenous; the Ghosh quantity model (GQM) is considered implausible; and the Leontief price model (LPM) and the Ghosh price model (GPM) assume that quantity is fixed. This study proposes to consider a supply constraint in the LPM, introducing the price elasticity of demand. This study uses the loss of social surplus (SS) as a damage estimation because production (sales) is less informative as a damage index than profit (margin); that is, production can be any amount if without considering profit, and it does not tell exactly how much profit is lost for each supplier (upstream sector) and buyer (downstream sector). As a model application, this study examines Japan's largest five earthquakes from 1995 to 2017 and the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) in March 2011. The worst earthquake at the peak tends to increase price by 10–20% and decrease SS by 20–30%, when compared with the initial month's prices/production. The worst damage tends to last eight months at most, accumulating 0.5-month-production damage (i.e., the sum of [hypothetical] differences in SS with and without an earthquake [for eight months] is 50% of the initial month production). Meanwhile, the GEJE in the five prefectures had cumulatively, a 25-month-production damage until the temporal recovery at the 37th month.     

Systematization of Kazakh music in Mongolia: activities of theater and radio station during the Soviet era

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the systematization of Kazakh music in Mongolia during the Soviet era in Bayan-Ölgiy Province, focusing on the music collection and preservation activities led by a theater and radio station. Bayan-Ölgiy is located far from Ulaanbaatar; adjacent to Kazakhstan, Xinjiang (China), and Russia. Using three–years participation observation, this study identified three activities in promoting the systematization of Kazakh music in Mongolia: importing musical knowledge and technology from the Soviet Kazakh Republic (1950–1960s); establishing a radio station and audio archive following the Sino-Soviet split (1960s–1980s); collections of Kazakh music in Mongolia (1960s–1980s). These activities were driving forces for Kazakhs to claim their identity in the post-socialist period in Mongolia. Diener found that Kazakh culture in Mongolia was preserved thanks to the geographic isolation of Bayan-Ölgiy. However, this study clearly identifies international relations and Bayan-Ölgiy’s strategic location as drivers of systematization of Kazakh music in Mongolia.     

Testing equality of mean vectors in a one-way MANOVA with monotone missing data

In this study, testing the equality of mean vectors in a one-way multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) is considered when each dataset has a monotone pattern of missing observations. The likelihood ratio test (LRT) statistic in a one-way MANOVA with monotone missing data is given. Furthermore, the modified test (MT) statistic based on likelihood ratio (LR) and the modified LRT (MLRT) statistic with monotone missing data are proposed using the decomposition of the LR and an asymptotic expansion for each decomposed LR. The accuracy of the approximation for the Chi-square distribution is investigated using a Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, an example is given to illustrate the methods.