Strategic learning with scenarios

Since the oil shocks upset the business world in the 1970s, the use of multiple scenario analysis has been increasingly propagated as an approach to deal effectively with the many long-run uncertainties that surround business organisations. Since its introduction, the scenario approach has undergone some considerable changes and it is now claimed fulfils a diverse range of functions. Newly-added functions include the stretching of managers' mental models and the triggering and acceleration of processes of organisational learning. Although these functions currently get most of the attention in academic and management journals in recent years, a satisfying explanation of how scenarios fulfil these functions is still missing in the scenario literature. The scenario methodology seems to tell only part of the story suggesting that construing and using scenarios ‘simply’ consists of sequentially completing several distinct phases. If multiple scenario analysis really is able to fulfil the wide range of functions ascribed to it another, more dynamic process has to be hidden behind the rather static phase model. The scenario literature does not give any insight into this latter process. This article aims to increase the understanding of multiple scenario analysis by unravelling some of the mysteries surrounding it. For this purpose, the role of scenarios in strategic management is studied from a cognitive perspective. It appears that scenarios can deal effectively with several bottlenecks that potentially hinder organisational learning on a strategic level in organisations.     

Improving Gambling Survey Research Using Dual-Frame Sampling of Landline and Mobile Phone Numbers

Gambling prevalence studies are typically conducted within a single (landline) telephone sampling frame. This practice continues, despite emerging evidence that significant differences exist between landline and mobile (cell) phone only households. This study utilised a dual-frame (landline and mobile) telephone sampling methodology to cast light on the extent of differences across groups of respondents in respect to demographic, health, and gambling characteristics. A total of 2,014 participants from across Australian states and territories ranging in age from 18 to 96 years participated. Interviews were conducted using computer assisted telephone interviewing technology where 1,012 respondents from the landline sampling frame and 1,002 from the mobile phone sampling frame completed a questionnaire about gambling and other health behaviours. Responses across the landline sampling frame, the mobile phone sampling frame, and the subset of the mobile phone sampling frame that possessed a mobile phone only (MPO) were contrasted. The findings revealed that although respondents in the landline sample (62.7 %) did not significantly differ from respondents in the mobile phone sample (59.2 %) in gambling participation in the previous 12 months, they were significantly more likely to have gambled in the previous 12 months than the MPO sample (56.4 %). There were no significant differences in internet gambling participation over the previous 12 months in the landline sample (4.7 %), mobile phone sample (4.7 %) and the MPO sample (5.0 %). However, endorsement of lifetime problem gambling on the NODS-CLiP was significantly higher within the mobile sample (10.7 %) and the MPO sample (14.8 %) than the landline sample (6.6 %). Our research supports previous findings that reliance on a traditional landline telephone sampling approach effectively excludes distinct subgroups of the population from being represented in research findings. Consequently, we suggest that research best practice necessitates the use of a dual-frame sampling methodology. Despite inherent logistical and cost issues, this approach needs to become the norm in gambling survey research.     

Popularity Contagion Among Adolescents

This study aimed to support the theory of popularity contagion, which posits that popularity spreads among friends spontaneously and regardless of behavioral changes. Peer nominations of status and behavior were collected annually between 6th and 12th grades from a total of 1062 adolescents. Longitudinal hypotheses were mostly supported using path analyses, showing (1) that individual popularity could be predicted by friends’ popularity levels over time, even when controlling for stability of individual popularity; (2) that this prediction was not accounted for by behavioral contagion of aggressive or prosocial behaviors; and (3) that individual social preference generally could not be predicted by friends’ preference levels over time. Implications, limitations, and directions for future research are discussed.     

The Effects of Participation Rate on the Internal Reliability of Peer Nomination Measures

Although low participation rates have historically been considered problematic in peer nomination research, some researchers have recently argued that small proportions of participants can, in fact, provide adequate sociometric data. The current study used a classical measurement perspective to investigate the internal reliability (Cronbach's α) of peer nomination measures of acceptance, popularity, friendship, prosocial behavior, and overt aggression. Data from 642 participants attending 10 schools were resampled at different participation rates ranging from 5 percent to 100 percent of the original samples. Results indicated that (1) the association between participation rate and Cronbach's α was curvilinear across schools and variables; (2) collecting more data for a given variable (by using unlimited vs. limited nominations, or two vs. one items) was significantly related to higher internal reliability; and (3) certain variables (overt aggression, popularity) were more reliable than others (acceptance, friendship). Implications for future research were discussed.     

Treatment of Female Pathological Gambling: The Efficacy of a Cognitive-Behavioural Approach

Given that a substantial proportion of current pathological gamblers are female, it is evident that women are underrepresented in the treatment outcome literature. The current study was designed to redress the limited information on the treatment of female pathological gambling. Although the use of cognitive-behavioural therapy is the most highly recommended approach as ‘best practice’ for the treatment of pathological gambling, no attempt to date has been made to evaluate the efficacy of this approach for female pathological gambling. Nineteen female pathological gamblers with electronic gaming machine problems were treated with a cognitive-behavioural program. While pathological gamblers placed on a waiting list did not show significant improvement on gambling behaviour and psychological functioning measures, the female pathological gamblers showed significant improvement on these measures over the treatment period, and maintained this improvement at the 6-month follow-up evaluation. By the completion of the follow-up period, 89% of participants no longer met diagnostic criteria for pathological gambling. Although further scientific demonstration and replication are required, the outcomes of this study indicate that the therapy that is considered ‘best practice’ in the treatment of pathological gambling is effective for female pathological gambling.     

Family violence in gambling help-seeking populations

Elevated rates of family violence among treatment-seeking problem gamblers compared to general population estimates have been reported in Spain, Canada and Australia. This study examined the occurrence of family violence among 454 problem gambling help-seeking clients (370 gamblers, 84 affected others) recruited through 3 national gambling treatment services in New Zealand. Measures used were the Problem Gambling Severity Index, and a modified version of the HITS Scale which assessed physical, emotional, verbal and sexual abuse. Past-year family violence among gamblers in this sample was 46.8% for victimization, 41.2% for perpetration and 55.0% for any form of family violence. Among affected others the occurrence was 65.5% for victimization, 57.1% for perpetration and 71.4% for any form of violence. The most common type of violence was verbal intimate partner violence. Affected others and women gamblers reported higher rates of violence victimization and perpetration. These findings underscore the importance of screening gambling help-seeking clients for family violence, and the development of prevention and treatment programmes to address violence in this population, with particular attention to affected others and women gamblers. Future research should assess coercive control and the gendered nature of family violence among problem gambling help-seekers.     

Towards an integrated model of leadership and self regulation

Most organizations strive to recruit employees who can accommodate unpredictable changes, demonstrate adaptability, and interact effectively with a diversity of individuals. Nevertheless, recent advances in self regulation imply that leaders can instead cultivate such qualities in employees rather than merely attract individuals with these capacities. This paper delineates some of the leadership characteristics and behaviors that could diminish the fragility of employees to foster these qualities. First, a framework is developed that integrates four theories of self regulation—self discrepancy theory, personality systems interaction theory, optimal self esteem, and self salience. Second, this framework is applied to demonstrate how fragility undermines adaptive performance. Finally, this framework is used to show how many leadership constructs, such as self sacrificing, moral management, and transformational behavior, can curb this fragility and thus improve adaptive performance.