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“One method of error analysis (not the one we will use) is based upon the principles of mathematical statistics. Unfortunately, statistical methods can only be meaningfully applied when one has large amounts of data for a given system. In many cases … these large quantities of data are not available … then statistical methods are not applicable, and some other methods must be devised.”  相似文献   
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We built three simulation models that can assist rail transit planners and operators to evaluate high and low probability rail‐centered hazard events that could lead to serious consequences for rail‐centered networks and their surrounding regions. Our key objective is to provide these models to users who, through planning with these models, can prevent events or more effectively react to them. The first of the three models is an industrial systems simulation tool that closely replicates rail passenger traffic flows between New York Penn Station and Trenton, New Jersey. Second, we built and used a line source plume model to trace chemical plumes released by a slow‐moving freight train that could impact rail passengers, as well as people in surrounding areas. Third, we crafted an economic simulation model that estimates the regional economic consequences of a variety of rail‐related hazard events through the year 2020. Each model can work independently of the others. However, used together they help provide a coherent story about what could happen and set the stage for planning that should make rail‐centered transport systems more resistant and resilient to hazard events. We highlight the limitations and opportunities presented by using these models individually or in sequence.  相似文献   
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Simultaneous confidence intervals for the p means of a multivariate normal random variable with known variances may be generated by the projection method of Scheffé and by the use of Bonferroni's inequality. It has been conjectured that the Bonferroni intervals are shorter than the Scheffé intervals, at least for the usual confidence levels. This conjecture is proved for all p≥2 and all confidence levels above 50%. It is shown, incidentally, that for all p≥2 Scheffé's intervals are shorter for sufficiently small confidence levels. The results are also applicable to the Bonferroni and Scheffé intervals generated for multinomial proportions.  相似文献   
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Abstract

In academic and popular debates about sexualisation, the “mainstreaming of sex in the West” is a common catchphrase. As noted by post-colonial and critical race scholars, categories such as “the West” remain powerful discursive ideas shaping how both researchers and researched border and construct race, difference, and sexuality. However, there is very little research that employs a post-colonial analysis of young people’s negotiations of sexualised media, most particularly studies that elucidate how the oppositional frameworks of colonial discourse sets up normative and “othered” subjectivities. In order to address this gap, I turn to Stuart Hall’s classic paper The West and the Rest to reflect on a project undertaken in South Australia with young people from a broad range of cultural backgrounds. In a fascinating set of reflections, the young people present a powerful set of challenges to the binary of the West and the Rest through their narratives on sexualised media. Taken together, these complex and sometimes contradictory narratives remind us of the problems associated with talking in generalised and universalising ways about “sexualisation in the West.”  相似文献   
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Infants’ pointing frequency is a predictor of their later language abilities. Yet, predictors of pointing frequency in the first year of life are not well understood. Study 1 explored what factors in infants and caregivers at 10 months would predict the pointing frequency of infants at 12 months (N = 35). Infant‐driven predictors were infants’ fine‐motor skills and point‐following abilities. Caregiver‐mediated predictors were caregivers’ pointing frequency and responsiveness toward infants’ pointing. Relevant caregiver responsiveness at 10 months predicted infants’ pointing frequency at 12 months, controlling for the other factors and infants’ prior pointing frequency. Study 2 explored whether child‐level factors influence caregivers’ responsiveness (N = 49). We examined the hand shape of infants’ pointing (whole‐hand versus index‐finger) and the presence of point‐accompanying vocalizations. Infants’ vocalization‐accompanied points were more likely to elicit relevant responses from caregivers, while hand shapes played a less pronounced role. Together, the findings reveal an early emerging mutual relationship between infant pointing and caregiver behavior such that certain characteristics of infant pointing predict caregivers’ responsiveness, and relevant responsiveness toward infants’ pointing predicts the increase in infants’ pointing frequencies.  相似文献   
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Health professionals often lack adequate protocols or knowledge to detect, manage, and prevent elder maltreatment. This systematic review describes and evaluates existing literature on the effectiveness of educational interventions to improve health professionals' recognition and reporting of elder abuse and neglect. Fourteen articles described 22 programs ranging from brief didactics to experiential learning and targeted a variety of health and social service audiences. Most evaluations were limited to satisfaction measures. These programs may result in increased awareness, collaboration, and improved case finding. However, using the published literature to guide new program planning is constrained by lack of details and limited evaluations.  相似文献   
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Occurring at a time when military interventions appeared to be a matter of the past, the coup attempt of July 15, 2016 left a major mark on Turkish society and politics. This article approaches the July 15 coup attempt as a contingent and transformative event and investigates how symbolic processes helped determine its immediate outcome as well as its cultural, social, and political consequences. Linking the sociological literature on events with social performance theory, the study argues that the putschists’ ineffectiveness in projecting legitimacy and power in the critical hours of the coup attempt significantly contributed to its failure. The retrospective construction of an authoritative “Narrative of July 15” in the following weeks, on the other hand, enabled the government to implement specific institutional changes in the cultural, economic, and political domains. The study proposes a two-step analysis for the cultural construction of political events and suggests that social performance theory provides useful analytical tools for tracing the course and explaining the outcome of this process.  相似文献   
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Tayfur Altiok 《Risk analysis》2011,31(12):1849-1858
We consider the value of decision support tools for passenger rail system managers. First, we call for models that follow events along main rail lines and then into the surrounding environment where they can cascade onto connected light rail, bus, auto, truck, and other transport modes. Second, we suggest that both probabilistic risk assessment (PRA‐based) and agent‐based models have a role to play at different scales of analysis and for different kinds of risks. Third, we argue that economic impact tools need more systematic evaluation. Fourth, we note that developers of decision support tools face a challenge of balancing their desire for theoretical elegance and the tendency to focus only on high consequence events against decisionmakers’ mistrust of complex tools that they and their staff cannot manage and incorporate into their routine operations, as well as the high costs of developing, updating, and applying decision support tools to transport systems undergoing budget cuts and worker and service reductions.  相似文献   
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