A Probabilistic Framework for Risk Analysis of Widespread Flood Events: A Proof‐of‐Concept Study

This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top‐kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a model chain. Eventually, the expected annual flood impact (e.g., expected annual damages) and the flood impact associated with a low probability of occurrence are determined for a study area. The risk model has the potential to augment the understanding of flood risk in a region and thereby contribute to enhanced risk management of, for example, risk analysts and policymakers or insurance companies. The modeling framework was successfully applied in a proof‐of‐concept exercise in Vorarlberg (Austria). The results of the case study show that risk analysis has to be based on spatially heterogeneous flood events in order to estimate flood risk adequately.     

政府绩效评估：我国民主行政建设的有效动力

政府绩效评估是“新公共管理运动”下政府改革的重要内容。政府绩效评估饱含民主成分,是我国民主行政建设的有效动力,但是在推进我国民主行政进程中仍然存在障碍。政府绩效评估要想有效地促进我国民主行政的发展,必须采取转变政府绩效评估理念,推进政府绩效评估法制化建设,建立政府绩效申诉制度,提高公民的参与意识与参与能力等对策。     

TERRITORIAL RESTRICTIONS IN FRANCHISE CONTRACTS

Efficient contracts set incentives through the assignment of rights and profit shares., Although efficient contracts have been used to explain the nature of the firm, the use of contractual rights in specific business contracts is relatively unexplored. We analyze contractual rights in franchise systems, in particular the right to add franchisees. An exclusive territory assigned to an initial franchisee is not an immutable guarantee, but rather a starting point for subsequent renegotiation in the franchise relationship. Exclusivity is therefore profitable when franchisee efforts are critical to the venture. A sample of franchise contracts reveals evidence consistent with the model's prediction.     

基于贝叶斯神经网络的非参数回归

提高神经网络模型推广能力的关键是控制模型的复杂度。该文探索了贝叶斯神经网络的非参数回归的建模方法,通过融入模型参数的先验知识,在给定数据样本及模型假设下进行后验概率的贝叶斯推理,使用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗算法来优化模型控制参数,实现了对神经网络模型中不同部分复杂度的控制,获得了模型参数的后验分布及预测分布。在5个含噪二维函数回归问题上的应用显示了模型的复杂度能根据数据的复杂度而自适应调整,并给出了较好的预测结果。     

吸收光谱式光纤瓦斯传感器检测电路及其波形分析

概据吸收光谱式光纤瓦斯传感器的设计原理及参娄，设计并实现了光电微弱信号的检测电路，并对该电路的检测波形进行了数学分析，该电路的核心是锁相放大器，前置放大使用了仪用放大器AD620，和国产的发射，接收管。该电路结构简单，实用，灵敏度高。     

企业年金纠纷属于劳动争议

案情简介原告江某等26人原系某免税公司(原属国有企业,现已改制)员工。该公司于2000年9月1日制定了《企业年金方案》,规定企业年金(即补充养老保险)与公司的经济效益挂钩,实施范围为具有本市户籍的在职员工,还规定了企业年金的具体缴费办法,方案从即日起开始实施。2001年1月20日,市社保局批复同意该方案。免税公司陆续为50多名高层管理人员办理了参加企业年金手续,并补缴了1997年1月至2000年8月的企业年金所需费用。免税公司没有为普通     

论晚明文人评点本的价值和传播机制

晚明是文学评点的鼎盛期和丰收期 ,不但汇评、集评的形式大量出现 ,而且形成了评点名篇为中心、各层次的作品均有评批的评点格局 ;这些文学评点具有很强的文本价值 ,一些重要的文艺理论都是在评点中形成、发展、流行起来的 ;同时它有一套调节接收者期待视界的传播机制 ,在提升传播速度、导引读者等方面起着重要的作用。     

Differentiated leader–member exchange,justice climate,and performance: Main and interactive effects

Leaders form different quality leader–member exchange (LMX) relationships with their subordinates. This variable treatment termed LMX differentiation can have negative effects on individuals' behavior and attitudes. In this study, we examined the cross-level main effect of justice climate on task performance and the moderating role of justice climate on the relationship between LMX differentiation and task performance. We tested these two hypotheses using a field study of 90 subordinates nested under 27 supervisors. Procedural justice climate, not distributive justice climate, was found to positively influence subordinate task performance. Further, distributive justice climate, not procedural justice climate, was found to moderate the LMX differentiation–task performance relationship; such that the relationship was positive when distributive justice climate was high and negative when distributive justice climate was low. Findings and future directions are discussed.     

Internet Use and Subjective Well-Being in China

Using data from the 2010 China Family Panel Studies, we analyze the association between Internet use and various measures of subjective well-being (SWB) in a sample of 16- to 60-year-old Chinese. Our analysis shows that although intensive Internet use is significantly associated with lower levels of SWB, we hardly observe any associations when the focus is on participation in specific online activities. Nevertheless, SWB depends on the reasons for using the Internet and the extent to which individuals feel that their Internet use is displacing other activities. Our results suggest that, contrary to previous findings, differences in beneficial outcomes (the third level digital divide) do not necessarily arise from individuals’ actual Internet use (the second level digital divide) but rather may result from their subjective perceptions of such usage. Our findings also point to a possible cultural factor that puts Chinese Internet users at psychological risk.     

The managerial power approach: Is it testable?

Journal of Management and Governance - The central hypothesis of the managerial power approach (MPA) states that power is the main driver of executive compensation. The positive impact of power on...