What is natural fertility? The modelling of a concept

The value and importance of the concept of natural fertility have been widely debated since Henry's work in the late 1950s. Whereas Henry regarded natural fertility largely as a useful concept for model building, Coale-Trussell demonstrated that this concept could also be used to analyze patterns of age-specific fertility. The set of age-specific marital fertility schedules assembled by Henry and then used by Coale and Trussell involved largely small populations drawn from disparate sources. Nonetheless, from this diverse and fragmentary data, Henry was able to construct a standard of natural fertility which, in the operational form developed by Coale-Trussell, has proved remarkably general in its application and utility. This in turn suggests that the physiological forces shaping fertility are exceedingly strong, especially the incidence of physiological sterility. There appears to be no single universal pattern of natural fertility. Rather, there is a set of closely related age profiles, the exact shape of which is determined by specific behavioral and social factors that influence childbearing. The increase in physiological sterility with age serves to give an upper limit to fertility at each age, while other factors determine how close a given population comes to that maximum. Although no society has ever demonstrated Henry's ideal notion of a purely physiological fertility pattern, the effect of the intervening factors is often weak. In terms of the Coale-Trussell model, maximum likelihood estimation offers the most informative method of implementation and a time series for 1 population is more readily interpretable than a cross-section comparing several populations.     

Losses of Expected Lifetime in the United States and Other Developed Countries: Methods and Empirical Analyses

Patterns of diversity in age at death are examined using e ^†, a dispersion measure that equals the average expected lifetime lost at death. We apply two methods for decomposing differences in e ^†. The first method estimates the contributions of average levels of mortality and mortality age structures. The second (and newly developed) method returns components produced by differences between age- and cause-specific mortality rates. The United States is close to England and Wales in mean life expectancy but has higher life expectancy losses and lacks mortality compression. The difference is determined by mortality age structures, whereas the role of mortality levels is minor. This is related to excess mortality at ages under 65 from various causes in the United States. Regression on 17 country-series suggests that e ^† correlates with income inequality across countries but not across time. This result can be attributed to dissimilarity between the age- and cause-of-death structures of temporal mortality reduction and intercountry mortality variation. It also suggests that factors affecting overall mortality decrease differ from those responsible for excess lifetime losses in the United States compared with other countries. The latter can be related to weaknesses of health system and other factors resulting in premature death from heart diseases, amenable causes, accidents and violence.     

Back Projection and Inverse Projection: Members of a Wider Class of Constrained Projection Models

Constrained by estimated population totals and observed totals of births and deaths, estimates of age-structures from inverse projection have been widely used in historical demography. Back Projection attempted, by using hypothetical constraints on net-migration, to estimate the population totals as well, and has been used to derive ‘censuses’ for England from 1541 to 1871. A wider formulation, called Generalised Inverse Projection, is proposed in this paper, which replaces back-projection and establishes its relation to Inverse Projection more clearly. Under the same assumptions as back projection, but using the new method, the estimates for England are virtually unchanged. This new method is capable of performing population projections, subject to a wide variety of hypothetical and empirical constraints, for contemporary as well as historical data.     

Do the Big-Five Personality Traits Predict Empathic Listening and Assertive Communication?

As personality traits can influence important social outcomes, the current research investigated whether the Big-Five had predictive influences on communication competences of active-empathic listening (AEL) and assertiveness. A sample of 245 adults of various ages completed the self-report scales. Both Agreeableness and Openness uniquely predicted AEL. Extraversion had the biggest influence on assertiveness but did not uniquely explain AEL variance. Conscientiousness and Neuroticism had small predictive influences on assertiveness. Further investigation into the pathways linking Big-Five facets to the different components of these communication competences is proposed and practical implications including understanding personality traits for successful leadership is discussed.     

Independence pays: a cost and resource analysis of direct payments in two local authorities

Although there is an increasing amount of literature on direct payments (DP), to date there have been few studies which have examined in any detail the costs and resources associated with them. This paper presents findings from a two year study conducted in two Welsh local authorities that jointly fund an Independent Living Support (ILS) scheme. The main study was not designed to provide definitive cost comparisons with conventional services, however, cost and resource implications of DP were considered and an analysis to determine comparative costs between DP and traditional services was undertaken. The study notes the difficulty in identifying the true cost of DP and reasonable comparators with traditional services. A set of four case studies are presented comparing actual costs of DP and in‐house and independent sector services in the two local authorities studied. The comparison of costs and resources, which did not include significant costs for traditional local authority services but included the cost of the DP support scheme, found that DP was cheaper than traditional in‐house service provision and relatively cost neutral when compared with independent sector provision. User satisfaction, however, was significantly greater with DP than traditional service delivery methods. The paper also examines factors which can potentially influence the cost of DP. The study suggests that DP represent a substantial improvement over traditional arrangements from a cost–benefit perspective. There is strong evidence to suggest that greater ‘opportunity cost’ savings can be anticipated when DP schemes become more fully integrated into policy, practice and procedures.     

Migrant Balancing Acts: Understanding the Interactions Between Integration and Transnationalism

In this article, we explore ways of understanding the interactions between migrant integration and transnationalism, based on a review of quantitative and qualitative literature. Integration is taken as the starting point, and the assumption that integration and transnationalism are at odds with one another is questioned. When considered as constituents of a social process, we argue that there are many similarities between integration and transnationalism. A typology for understanding these interactions is developed, based on an acknowledgment of migrants' agency in straddling two societies—as a balancing act. This typology is presented as a tool to enable migration scholars to move beyond simply acknowledging the co-existence of transnationalism and integration and towards an analysis of the nature of interactions between the two—understood in relation both to particular places and contexts and to the human beings involved and their functional, emotional and pragmatic considerations.