Global employment and decent jobs, 2010–2030: The forces of demography and automation

Globally, an estimated 734 million jobs will be required between 2010 and 2030 to accommodate recent and ongoing demographic shifts, account for plausible changes in labour force participation rates, and achieve target unemployment rates of at or below 4 per cent for adults and at or below 8 per cent for youth. The facts that most new jobs will be required in countries where “decent” jobs are less prevalent and workers in many occupations are increasingly subject to risks of automation further compound the challenge of job creation, which is already quite sizable in historical perspective. Failure to create the jobs that are needed through 2030 would put currently operative social security systems under pressure and undermine efforts to guarantee the national social protection floors enshrined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).     

Using "short" interrupted time-series analysis to measure the impacts of whole-school reforms. With applications to a study of accelerated schools

The present article introduces a new approach for measuring the impacts of whole-school reforms. The approach is based on "short" interrupted time-series analysis, which has been used to evaluate programs in many fields. The approach is used to measure impacts on three facets of student performance: (a) average (mean) test scores, which summarize impacts on total performance; (b) the distribution of scores across specific ranges, which helps to identify where in the distribution of student performance impacts were experienced; and (c) the variation (standard deviation) of scores, which indicates how the disparity in student performance was affected. To help researchers use the approach, the article lays out its conceptual rationale, describes its statistical procedures, explains how to interpret its findings, indicates its strengths and limitations, and illustrates how it was used to evaluate a major whole-school reform--Accelerated Schools.     

Indications for the use of low-osmolar contrast agents.

The recent introduction of low-osmolar contrast agents for use in radiology procedures presents a dilemma for health care managers concerned about cost and quality. The new agents are reported to be safer and are better tolerated by patients, but they are very costly. Earlier this year, a survey was sent to hospital-based members of the American College of Physician Executives to determine what policy existed for the use of these agents. As a result of the survey, we have a better picture of the indications for low-osmolar contrast agents being used in clinical practice throughout the United States.     

Identifying Technology Spillovers and Product Market Rivalry

The impact of R&D on growth through spillovers has been a major topic of economic research over the last thirty years. A central problem in the literature is that firm performance is affected by two countervailing “spillovers” : a positive effect from technology (knowledge) spillovers and a negative business stealing effects from product market rivals. We develop a general framework incorporating these two types of spillovers and implement this model using measures of a firm's position in technology space and productmarket space. Using panel data on U.S. firms, we show that technology spillovers quantitatively dominate, so that the gross social returns to R&D are at least twice as high as the private returns. We identify the causal effect of R&D spillovers by using changes in federal and state tax incentives for R&D. We also find that smaller firms generate lower social returns to R&D because they operate more in technological niches. Finally, we detail the desirable properties of an ideal spillover measure and how existing approaches, including our new Mahalanobis measure, compare to these criteria.     

Standards for Development: Food Safety and Sustainability in Wal‐Mart's Honduran Produce Supply Chains

Public‐private partnerships between supermarket retailers and development agencies help small‐scale producers reach growing domestic markets in developing countries. Drawing on qualitative data that focuses on relationships between producers, development agencies, and Wal‐Mart‐owned supermarkets in Honduras, the research presented here demonstrates how, by introducing food safety standards to development agencies' outreach efforts, but without necessarily certifying producers or offering a price premium, Wal‐Mart uses these standards to simultaneously differentiate production practices by promoting quality, while maintaining a standardized market. As a result, the responsibility and costs for incentivizing growers to change their practices is shifted to nongovernmental organizations. Therefore, although an extensive body of literature describes standards and third‐party certification systems as the means for corporations to control production practices, this research indicates that public‐private partnerships are a new vehicle by which corporations can influence agricultural production practices. In addition, this article argues that the inclusion of food safety standards in development projects leads to the conflation of food safety and sustainability, without adequately interrogating which agroecological processes food safety standards include and exclude. Therefore, retailers' private food safety standards dominate how sustainability is perceived and practiced in the development context.     

Introduction to Special Issue of the European Journal of Population: ‘Economic Consequences of Low Fertility in Europe’

This special issue of the European Journal of Population focuses on possible economic consequences of low fertility in Europe. This introduction reviews the history of falling fertility in Europe and the literature that explores its causes, its potential implications, and possible policy responses. It also summarizes the evolution of thinking about the relationship between population growth and economic development, with attention to recent work on the mechanisms through which fertility decline can spur economic growth if the necessary supporting conditions are met. The introduction also identifies some of the challenges of population ageing that are associated with low fertility and suggests that there may be less reason for alarm than has been suggested by some observers. The articles that appear in this special issue are also summarized.     

Survivor Feedback on a Safety Decision Aid Smartphone Application for College-Age Women in Abusive Relationships

College-age women are at high risk for dating violence and tend to seek services at rates lower than older adults. Young women are more likely to look to their peers or to technology as a forum for accessing safety resources. This study explores a prototype smart phone application (“app”) that is a safety decision aid for female survivors of dating violence. The app is intended to assist young women to assess the danger in their abusive relationship, set priorities for safety, and develop a personalized safety plan. Through focus group sessions and individual interviews, 38 female college students in 4 states (Arizona, Maryland, Missouri, and Oregon) who self-identified as survivors of abusive relationships reviewed and provided feedback on the usefulness, understandability, appropriateness, and comprehensiveness of the app. The focus group sessions and interviews were transcribed and analyzed. Participants were positive about the potential of the app to provide personalized information about abusive dating relationships and appropriate resources in a private, safe, and nonjudgmental manner. Detailed feedback from survivors and recommendations for further development of the app are discussed.     

Modeling American marriage patterns

"This article investigates the application of the three-parameter, Coale-McNeil marriage model and some related hyperparameterized specifications to data on the first marriage patterns of American women. Because the model is parametric, it can be used to estimate the parameters of the marriage process for cohorts that have yet to complete their first marriage experience. Empirical evidence from three surveys is reported on the ability of the model to replicate and project observed marriage behavior. The results indicate that the model can be a useful tool for analyzing cohort marriage data and that recent cohorts are showing relatively strong proclivities to both delay and forego marriage. Consistent with earlier work, the results also indicate that education is a powerful covariate of the timing of first marriage and that race is a powerful covariate of its incidence." Data are from the U.S. Current Population Survey for 1976 and 1985 and Cycle III of the National Survey of Family Growth for 1982.