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The Crying Game's central, tragic theme of warrior/lovers caught between their love for one another and loyalty to their respective factions has significant roots in early Celtic mythology. The elegaic theme of potential lovers forced into ill-fated combat that frames the film's events also, significantly, bears the weight of the film's most unambiguous political commentary, when Fergus speaks directly to the picture of Jody in Dil's apartment, telling him: ‘You should have stayed at home.’ This sad remonstration, which clearly lays responsibility for the chain of causality that has led to so much suffering not with Jody, but with the British state, is similar in quality to Cu Chulainn's lament as he contemplates his meeting with Ferdia. When we listen carefully for ways in which Celtic mythical themes underlie and nuance the film's events, different rhythms emerge, accenting different beats.  相似文献   
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We study variations in the severity of the 1997 financial crisis in a sample of 25 developing countries. We use both currency depreciation and stock market returns as crisis measures. Our key findings are that countries that started 1997 with an exchange rate peg experienced significantly greater currency depreciation and significantly lower stock returns than would be predicted from the levels of various macroeconomic indicators.  相似文献   
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We examine whether experience from prior divestitures is associated with higher completion likelihood in subsequent acquisitions. We argue that through divestitures, firms could extract meaningful knowledge that is helpful for completing their acquisitions, such as a general understanding of acquisition deal-making stages, and the stories and aims of the target in an M&A transaction. In addition, viewing divestitures as the flipside of acquisitions, we conjecture that the selling firm can observe how the divested component of their business is acquired, and vicariously learn from these observations. We also investigate the relative importance of learning from divestiture vis-à-vis acquisition experience in determining acquisition deal completion. Finally, we contend that the effect of learning from divestitures on acquisition deal completion depends on acquisition experience and deal value. We find evidence supporting our conjectures in a sample of 2164 M&A transactions from the worldwide computer and printing industries between 1991 and 2010.  相似文献   
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Researchers applied longitudinal data on 2884 women who were at least 6 months pregnant between May 1983-April 1984 and living in the Cebu metropolitan area, the Philippines to examine assumptions which may explain the association between lower breast feeding levels and dwindling social support for mothers who breast feed in urban areas. Extended family households were much more common in urban areas than rural areas (46.3% vs. 27.5%). This finding did not support the 3rd assumption of falling extended family patterns with urbanization. Further as the levels of complexity and extension of the household rose so did infant care support regardless of location. For example, the number of hours of help with infant care for mothers in nuclear families in urban areas was 1.23 which climbed from 2.53 for horizontal extended families to 2.9 for vertical extended families and to 3.09 for horizontal and vertical extended families. This result supported the 2nd assumption of much more social support in extended families than nuclear families. Yet social support did not translate into promotion of breast feeding--the 1st assumption. Mothers in horizontally extended families had a lower likelihood of breast feeding than those in nuclear families. Further only adult female relatives of the same generation as the mother has a negative influence on breast feeding in urban mothers, but not rural mothers. In fact, female children of at least 7 years old, female servants, and yayas all negatively affect breast feeding in urban mothers, but not rural mothers. In rural households, young female relatives (at least 7 years old) significantly increased the probability of breast feeding whereas young male relatives decreased the probability.  相似文献   
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Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
This paper develops a forecasting procedure based on a Bayesian method for estimating vector autoregressions. The procedure is applied t o 10 macroeconomic variables and is shown to improve out-of-sample forecasts relative to univariate equations. Although cross-variable responses are damped by the prior, considerable interaction among the variables is shown to be captured by the estimates

We provide unconditional forecasts as of 1982:12 and 1983:3. We also describe how a model such as this can be used to make conditional projections and to analyze policy alternatives. As an example, we analyze a Congressional Budget Office forecast made in 1982: 12

Although no automatic causal interpretations arise from models like ours, they provide a detailed characterization of the dynamic statistical interdependence of a set of economic variables, information that may help in evaluating causal hypotheses without containing any such hypotheses.  相似文献   
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This paper explores the relationship between population growth, agricultural production, and urban development. Ongoing debate in the literature regarding the relationship between population and economic development is restricted by the limited availability of time series data and the difficulty of evaluating causality using cross-sectional data. This analysis uses the special case of Jordan with its massive refugee flows to evaluate the influence of a sudden and exogenous change in population in urban areas on the intensification of agricultural production. Spearman Rank Order correlations are calculated from time series data to show that the districts which experienced the most rapid population growth and increases in population density also exhibited the largest increases in agricultural intensity. Cross-sectional analysis in which measures of agricultural intensification were predicted by population density and urbanization factors reveals a significant interaction between density and urban centrality, where centrality is an indicator of the accessibility of urban goods to rural communities. The results suggest that population density has a strongly positive effect on agricultural intensity in areas with few urban goods and services available, whereas the influence of population density on agricultural intensity is substantially reduced in areas with a greater diversity of urban goods and services.This article is based on a paper presented at the 1992 Meeting of the Southern Demographics Association, Charleston, SC, 15–17 October 1992.  相似文献   
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While Lesbian Studies is established as a commodity in the academic marketplace, its disciplinary contours are rather more obscure-and even more problematically, its disciplinary genealogy remains somewhat crude. The dominant genealogy of Lesbian Studies might best be characterized as a 'collision model,' a battle between politics and theory, even though much existing scholarship draws on both Lesbian-Feminist Theory and Queer Theory.1 This article proposes that the tools and methods of a sub-field called 'Lesbian Cultural History' might be useful in generating other historical accounts of the origins and evolution of Lesbian Studies. Such a project is vital because the writing of our disciplinary History clarifies how we envision a disciplinary future.  相似文献   
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Although people with disabilities are frequently targeted as key beneficiaries of social protection, little is known on their access to existing programmes. This study uses mixed methods to explore participation in disability‐targeted and non‐targeted social protection programmes in Viet Nam, particularly in the district of Cam Le. In this district, social assistance and health insurance coverage among people with disabilities was 53 per cent and 96 per cent respectively. However, few accessed employment‐linked social insurance and other disability‐targeted benefits (e.g. vocational training, transportation discounts). Factors affecting access included the accessibility of the application process, disability assessment procedures, awareness and the perceived utility of programmes, and attitudes on disability and social protection.  相似文献   
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