Copula-based regression models: A survey

In this review paper we collect several results about copula-based models, especially concerning regression models, by focusing on some insurance applications.     

Characteristic function estimation of non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes

Continuous non-Gaussian stationary processes of the OU-type are becoming increasingly popular given their flexibility in modelling stylized features of financial series such as asymmetry, heavy tails and jumps. The use of non-Gaussian marginal distributions makes likelihood analysis of these processes unfeasible for virtually all cases of interest. This paper exploits the self-decomposability of the marginal laws of OU processes to provide explicit expressions of the characteristic function which can be applied to several models as well as to develop efficient estimation techniques based on the empirical characteristic function. Extensions to OU-based stochastic volatility models are provided.     

White and nonwhite trends in first birth timing: Comparisons using vital registration and current population surveys

The magnitude of racial differences in first birth timing vary greatly depending upon the data sources from which they are estimated. Vital registration data (Heuser 1976; with updates from the National Center for Health Statistics 1974–1990) show that in recent years nonwhites have higher risks of a first birth at virtually all ages compared to whites. As a result very large and historically novel differentials in childlessness are forecast using these data (see Rindfuss et al. 1988; Chen & Morgan 1991; Morgan & Chen 1992). However, retrospective fertility history data collected from the 1980, 1985 and 1990 Current Population Surveys (CPS) suggest much smaller racial differences in completed childlessness and isolate racial differences in probabilities of first births at young ages. Differences also exist between theses two series for whites prior to the mid-1960s but not afterwards. Reasons for these differing estimates are suggested and examined. We conclude that a substantial portion of the differences result from an accumulation of biases in the vital registration estimates that affect primarily estimates of first birth timing. Thus, the CPS data provide a more firm basis for racial comparisons of first birth timing.     

The Ethnic Composition of Families in Russia in 1989: Insights into the Soviet “Nationalities Policy”

A sample from the 1989 Soviet census is used to study the ethnic composition of families in the Russian Federation on the eve of the breakup of the Soviet Union. The aim is to gain insight into the consequences of the Soviet “nationalities policy” through examining the marriage patterns of different ethnic groups and the nature of the relations between these groups. The analysis is based on general log-linear models. The main findings are: there was a relatively well-pronounced tendency toward endogamy; Russians were the least endoga-mous, while Chechens were the most endoga-mous among the 11 ethnic groups included in the analysis; “zones of attraction” related to exogamy were well discernible, the two most pronounced being within the Eastern Slav and Turkic groups; testing for cohort effects revealed a decrease in endogamy when older and middle cohorts were compared, while the differences between middle and younger cohorts were in many cases not statistically significant.     

Quotas on runs of successes and failures in a multi-state markov chain

For the time-homogeneous multi-state Markov chain {X_n,n≧0} with states labeled as "0" (success) and "f"(failure), f=1,2,… the waiting time problems to be discussed arise by setting quotas on runs of success and failures. Some particular cases are considered.     

Anti-austerity between militant materialism and real democracy: exploring pragmatic prefigurativism

ABSTRACT

The anti-austerity movement that emerged in the wake of the 2008 global economic crisis and 2010 Eurozone crisis, and which forms part of the ‘age of austerity’ that came after those crises, was underpinned by a set of ideas and practices that we refer to here as ‘pragmatic prefigurativism’. Whilst the anti-austerity movements typically rejected formal ideologies such as Marxism and anarchism, nevertheless pragmatic prefigurativism can be understood as a ‘left convergence’ of sorts. The paper explores the features of this pragmatic prefigurativism, comparing the anti-austerity movements in the UK and Spain. In particular, we note the role of unresponsive institutions of democracy in prompting the move towards pragmatic prefigurativism, the adoption of techniques of direct democracy and direct action as the means through which to express a voice and to refuse austerity, and the pragmatic nature of the subsequent (re)turn to political institutions when this became a possibility.     

Correlation properties of continuous-time autoregressive processes delayed by the inverse of the stable subordinator

Abstract

We define the delayed Lévy-driven continuous-time autoregressive process via the inverse of the stable subordinator. We derive correlation structure for the observed non-stationary delayed Lévy-driven continuous-time autoregressive processes of order p, emphasizing low orders, and we show they exhibit long-range dependence property. Distributional properties are discussed as well.     

A unique Birobidzhan collection

JEWS AND SOCIALISM

REVOLUTIONARY JEWS FROM MARX TO TROTSKY, by Robert S. Wistrich. London, Harrap, 1976. 254 pp. £6.75.

THE MENSHEVIKS, 1917–39

THE MENSHEVIKS. FROM THE REVOLUTION OF 1917 TO THE SECOND WORLD WAR, ed. by Leopold H. Haimson. Chicago, London, The University of Chicago Press, 1974. xxiii + 476 pp. Appendices. Name Index. Subject Index. (Hoover Institution Publications 117.) £12.40.

POLAND BETWEEN THE WARS

MOZAIKA POLITYCZNA DRUGIEJ RZECZYPOSPOLITEJ (The Political Mosaic of the Second Republic), by Jerzy Holzer. Warsaw, Ksiazka i Wiedza, 1974. 688 pp. Names Index. Index of parties and organization.

CWIERC WIEKU Z KURIEREM WARSZAWSKIM (1914–1939) (Twenty Five Years with the Kurier Warszawski), by Konrad Olchowicz. Cracow, Wydawnictwo Literackie, 1974.

SOVIET VIEWS ON WAR AND DETENTE

CONVERGENCE OF COMMUNISM AND CAPITALISM. THE SOVIET VIEW, by Leon Gouré, Foy D. Kohler, Richard Soll, Annette Stiefbold. Center for Advanced International Studies, University of Miami, 1973. ix, 168 pp. Docs. (Monographs in International Affairs.) $5.95, $4.95 paperback.

SOVIET STRATEGY FOR THE SEVENTIES. FROM COLD WAR TO PEACEFUL COEXISTENCE, by Foy D. Kohler, Moss L. Harvey, Leon Gouré, Richard Soll. Center for Advanced International Studies, University of Miami, 1973. v, 241 pp. Index. (Monographs in International Affairs.) $5.95, $4.95 paperback.

THE SOVIET VIEW OF WAR, PEACE AND NEUTRALITY, by P. H. Vigor. London, Routledge and Kegan, 1975. vii, 256 pp. Bibl. Index. £6.50.

JUDAICA IN HUNGARY

EVKONYV. Kiadja a Magyar Izraeliták Országos Képviselete (Yearbook Published by the Central Council of Hungarian Jewry) 1975–76, by Sandor Scheiber (Ed.). Budapest, 1976. 423pp. Ft. 42.00

MONUMENTA HUNGARIAE JUDAICA. VOL XVI, by Sándor Scheiber and Jenö Házi (Eds.). Budapest, 1974. 565pp. Illus. Index. Ft. 180.00