The Impact of Macro- and Micro-Economic Uncertainty on Family Formation in The Netherlands

In this paper, we study the impact of macro- and micro-economic uncertainty on family formation between 1970 and 2000 in The Netherlands. Using data of the Family Survey Dutch Population, we analysed the monthly hazard rates of experiencing the transition into first union, first marriage and parenthood after the start of the relationship of 365 male and 364 female partners by applying piecewise-constant exponential models. The results show that macro-economic uncertainties, i.e. high unemployment rates, lead to postponement of the first union and marriage, but not of the first child. In addition, we found that this relationship is not interpreted by individual-level employment insecurity, i.e. temporary employment or unemployment, which does not seem to prevent people from making long-term family commitments. Although hypothesized, we did not find that the negative effects of macro- and micro-level insecurities on family formation reinforce each other or that they vary between individuals with different educational qualifications.     

Consumer Behaviour and Order Fulfilment in Online Retailing: A Systematic Review

This paper provides a systematic review of consumer behaviour and order fulfilment in online retailing. The objective of this review is threefold: first, to identify elements of order‐fulfilment operations that are relevant to online consumer behaviour (purchase, repurchase, product return); second, to understand the relationship between order‐fulfilment performance and consumer behaviour; and third, to inspire future research on developing consumer service strategies that takes account of these behavioural responses to order‐fulfilment performance outcomes. The paper is based on a systematic review of literature on online consumer behaviour and order‐fulfilment operations, mainly in the fields of marketing and operations, published in international peer‐reviewed journals between 2000 and September 2015. This study indicates that the current literature on online consumer behaviour focuses mainly on the use of marketing tools to improve consumer service levels. Very little research has been conducted on the use of consumer service instruments to steer consumer behaviour or, consequently, to manage related order‐fulfilment activities better. The study culminates in a framework that encompasses elements of order‐fulfilment operations and their relationship to online consumer behaviour. This paper is the first comprehensive review of online consumer behaviour that takes aspects of order‐fulfilment operations into account from both marketing and operations perspectives.     

Problem shifts in the study of welfare states and societal inequalities

This paper takes stock of questions in the field of welfare states and societal inequalities and related areas in sociology. Within general sociology, Lenski offered the question of who gets what and why, and the first generation of studies on welfare and inequality ranging from Cutright to Hewitt replaced questions about income shares for percentile groups by questions about state social security expenditures. Korpi, who initiated a second generation of studies, affected a change towards questions about individual benefit levels relative to the income of members of the working population. Commentators like Baldwin have pointed out that these questions are questions about solidarity, another problem in general sociology. This paper concludes by arguing in favour of a third problem shift, in which questions about the solidarity disfavoured people receive are complemented with questions about the solidarity advantaged people give.     

An Alternative Exact Solution of the Two-Stage Clonal Growth Model of Cancer

The approximate solution of the two-stage clonal expansion model of cancer may substantially deviate from the exact solution, and may therefore lead to erroneous conclusions in particular applications. However, for time-varying parameters the exact solution (method of characteristics) is not easy to implement, hampering the accessibility of the model to nonmathematicians. Based on intuitive reasoning, Clewell et al. (1995) proposed an improved approximate solution that is easy to implement whatever time-varying behavior the parameters may have. Here we provide the mathematical foundation for the approximation suggested by Clewell et al. (1995) and show that, after a slight modification, it is in fact an exact solution for the case of time-constant parameters. We were not able to prove that it is an exact solution for time-varying parameters as well. However, several computer simulations showed that the numerical results do not differ from the exact solution as proposed by Moolgavkar and Luebeck (1990). The advantage of this alternative solution is that the hazard rate of the first malignant cell can be evaluated by numerically integrating a single differential equation.     

Analogien, Subsistenztechnologien Und (Nicht-)moralische Allmächtige Schöpfergötter In Vorindustriellen Gesellschaften

The aim of this paper is to explain the relationship of humans with their god(s) during different stages of technological development. We answer the question under which circumstances what image of God becomes popular. To do so we use Lenski’s ecological evolutionism and combine this macrotheory with Topitsch’ micro-hypothesis that people reason by analogy and explain the unknown in terms of what is known and what is important in a society. The known can consist of a vital process, a social structure or a technological achievement. Using the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample of Murdock’s Ethnographic Atlas, we find that high gods are less common in the technologically less advanced societies. High gods are most likely to occur in the advanced horticultural, herding and agrarian societies. When we distinguish between non-moral and moral high gods we see that non-moral ones are most often found in the advanced horticultural and moral ones in the herding and agrarian societies. The relationship between subsistence technology and godly images is to a large extent mediated by a society’s economical and political structure.     

Modeling Long-Term Exposure of the Whole Population to Chemicals in Food

This paper discusses a statistical exposure model (STEM) that can be used to estimate the percentage of the population exceeding ingestion intake criteria (e.g., ADI or TDI). In addition, STEM may be linked to toxicokinetic models to evaluate the interindividual variability in internal doses that results from variability in consumption habits. The assumptions of STEM are investigated by analyzing dioxin and cadmium intake data for the Dutch population.     

Integration of Probabilistic Exposure Assessment and Probabilistic Hazard Characterization

A method is proposed for integrated probabilistic risk assessment where exposure assessment and hazard characterization are both included in a probabilistic way. The aim is to specify the probability that a random individual from a defined (sub)population will have an exposure high enough to cause a particular health effect of a predefined magnitude, the critical effect size ( CES ). The exposure level that results in exactly that CES in a particular person is that person's individual critical effect dose ( ICED ). Individuals in a population typically show variation, both in their individual exposure ( IEXP ) and in their ICED . Both the variation in IEXP and the variation in ICED are quantified in the form of probability distributions. Assuming independence between both distributions, they are combined (by Monte Carlo) into a distribution of the individual margin of exposure ( IMoE ). The proportion of the IMoE distribution below unity is the probability of critical exposure ( PoCE ) in the particular (sub)population. Uncertainties involved in the overall risk assessment (i.e., both regarding exposure and effect assessment) are quantified using Monte Carlo and bootstrap methods. This results in an uncertainty distribution for any statistic of interest, such as the probability of critical exposure ( PoCE ). The method is illustrated based on data for the case of dietary exposure to the organophosphate acephate. We present plots that concisely summarize the probabilistic results, retaining the distinction between variability and uncertainty. We show how the relative contributions from the various sources of uncertainty involved may be quantified.     

A Method for Comparing the Impact on Carcinogenicity of Tobacco Products: A Case Study on Heated Tobacco Versus Cigarettes

Comparing the harmful health effects related to two different tobacco products by applying common risk assessment methods to each individual compound is problematic. We developed a method that circumvents some of these problems by focusing on the change in cumulative exposure (CCE) of the compounds emitted by the two products considered. The method consists of six steps. The first three steps encompass dose-response analysis of cancer data, resulting in relative potency factors with confidence intervals. The fourth step evaluates emission data, resulting in confidence intervals for the expected emission of each compound. The fifth step calculates the change in CCE, probabilistically, resulting in an uncertainty range for the CCE. The sixth step estimates the associated health impact by combining the CCE with relevant dose-response information. As an illustrative case study, we applied the method to eight carcinogens occurring both in the emissions of heated tobacco products (HTPs), a novel class of tobacco products, and tobacco smoke. The CCE was estimated to be 10- to 25-fold lower when using HTPs instead of cigarettes. Such a change indicates a substantially smaller reduction in expected life span, based on available dose-response information in smokers. However, this is a preliminary conclusion, as only eight carcinogens were considered so far. Furthermore, an unfavorable health impact related to HTPs remains as compared to complete abstinence. Our method results in useful information that may help policy makers in better understanding the potential health impact of new tobacco and related products. A similar approach can be used to compare the carcinogenicity of other mixtures.