Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model

This paper presents a stochastic model to forecast the German population and labor supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, our population forecast applies principal components analysis to birth, mortality, emigration, and immigration rates, which allows for the reduction of dimensionality and accounts for correlation of the rates. Labor force participation rates are estimated by means of an econometric time series approach. All time series are forecast by stochastic simulation using the bootstrap method. As our model also distinguishes between German and foreign nationals, different developments in fertility, migration, and labor participation could be predicted. The results show that even rising birth rates and high levels of immigration cannot break the basic demographic trend in the long run. An important finding from an endogenous modeling of emigration rates is that high net migration in the long run will be difficult to achieve. Our stochastic perspective suggests therefore a high probability of substantially decreasing the labor supply in Germany.     

Tractor accidents in Swedish traffic

The objective of this study is to reach a better understanding of accidents on Swedish roads involving tractors and to suggest ways of preventing them. In an earlier study we analyzed police-reported fatal accidents and accidents that led to physical injuries from 1992 to 2005. During each year of this period, tractors were involved in 128 traffic accidents on average, an average of 7 people were killed, 44 sustained serious injuries, and 143 sustained slight injuries. The number of fatalities in these tractor accidents was about 1.3% of all deaths in traffic accidents in Sweden. Cars were most often involved in the tractor accidents (58%) and 15% were single vehicle accidents. The mean age of the tractor driver involved was 39.8 years and young drivers (15-24 years) were overrepresented (30%). We are now increasing the data collected with the years 2006-2010 in order to study the changes in the number of accidents. Special attention will be given to the younger drivers and to single vehicle accidents. Based on the results we aim to develop suggestions for reducing road accidents, e.g. including measures for making farm vehicles more visible and improvement of the training provided at driving schools.     

Processes Employed by Social Work Practitioners in Child Welfare for Exchanging and Using Knowledge

Organisations in the health and social services sector expend a considerable amount of energy promoting the implementation of better practices and research data use in their establishments. In the field of social work, several studies suggest that social work practitioners do not make great use of scientific knowledge and tend to favour knowledge acquired from their colleagues or through their own occupational experience. However, interactions between types of knowledge are rarely analyzed in explanations proposed by the scientific literature. Based on research conducted with social work practitioners in child welfare, this article discusses the different ways that they acquire knowledge.     

Children's experiences with an intervention aimed to prevent further physical abuse

Although many children across cultures are victims of physical abuse, few treatment models target these children and their parents. In Sweden, Combined Parent–Child Cognitive Behavioural Therapy for families at risk for child physical abuse has been successfully used according to pretreatment and posttreatment studies. However, few studies have explored how physically abused children experience treatment. This study includes 20 physically abused children aged 9–17 who completed Combined Parent–Child Cognitive Behavioural Therapy. Children had a positive overall impression of the treatment and highlighted addressing the abuse, as well as processing their experiences as particularly essential. Children described a positive transformation in their family life as a result of treatment, including violence cessation and bonding among family members. Children experienced the intervention as inclusive and child‐friendly. The implications of the promising findings are discussed.     

Identifying social innovations in European local rural development initiatives

Social innovation is attracting increasing attention in research and policy, heightened by continuing austerity across Europe. Therefore, this paper examines earlier research into community-led local development (CLLD) initiatives in rural areas of Europe to develop our understanding of the meaning and scope of rural social innovation. We draw on a Schumpeterian view where innovations emerge from new combinations of resources that bring about positive changes and create value in society. A Schumpeterian social innovation framework is derived as the basis for re-analysing data from previous evaluations of LEADER policy in five different national contexts. This elicits a clearer understanding of social innovation in a rural development context, identifying different processes and outcomes that create social value. As the CLLD agenda and the demand for innovation in Europe gather pace, our aspirations are to inform future research and other initiatives on how to integrate social innovation into the design and evaluation of new rural development policies and programmes.     

Canadian Campus Smoking Policies: Investigating the Gap Between Intent and Outcome From a Student Perspective

Abstract

Background: Young adults remain the earliest legal target for the tobacco industry. Against this, the existence of smoking policies would appear to offer some protection to students on campus. However, little research has been conducted into the outcomes of such policies from a student perspective. Methods: The authors conducted 8 focus groups at 4 selected Canadian undergraduate campuses to investigate student perceptions and behaviors resulting from campus smoking policies. Results: Results indicated that student smoking behaviors are minimally impacted by campus smoking policies due to seriously compromised implementation and enforcement. Conclusions: These findings imply that the presence of campus smoking policies and claims of “smoke-free” campuses should not be misinterpreted as achievement and without renewed focus and adequate tobacco control infrastructure, it will remain possible for young adults to initiate and maintain tobacco smoking on campus.     

Doing Disability: Disability Formations in the Search for Work*

Disability theorists have spent much time discussing how disability is defined. The theoretical roots for these debates reside in the medical, structural, and minority models of disability. The medical model views disability as equivalent to a functional impairment; the minority model sees a lack of equal rights as a primary impediment to social equality between able and disabled populations; and the structural model looks to environmental factors as the cause of disability. While debates over how to define disability are informative, there is currently an insufficient amount of empirical research looking at how people come to identify themselves as having a disability. Rather than focus on how disability is (or should be) defined, herein we look at how disability identities are constructed as people search for work. We show that people's interactions with employers and employment agencies have important influences on how disability identities are constructed. We borrow from the “doing gender” and “racial formations” paradigms to introduce an interactive approach to looking at how disability identities are constructed. We introduce the concept of disability formation to highlight how disability identities are continually negotiated through interactions with employment agencies and employers. Our findings are based on focus groups with 58 people who self‐identified as having a disability and were working or searching for work.     

The effect of cross-cultural dialogue on child welfare parenting classes: anecdotal evidence in black and white

The child welfare system indicates that evidence of successful completion of parenting classes is instrumental in determining whether parents are actively engaged in the process of permanency planning. Such classes vary in length and intensity with topics ranging from "How to Raise Healthy Families" to "How to Discipline Your Child." Two social workers (one white and one black), who initially disagreed about the format of a parenting class, chronicle their efforts to collaborate and create a class format that recognizes the psychosocial and, more specifically, the cultural influences inherent in facilitating these classes. The juxtaposition of the clinical concepts of projection and projective identification are evaluated against the backdrop of the social concepts of empowerment and diversity.     

The Economic Partnership Agreements: Rationale,Misperceptions and Non‐trade Aspects

The European Union and the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries entered a new era in 2008. The Cotonou trade regime and the WTO waiver legitimising it have expired, and the long anticipated, and much debated, move to Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) has begun. This article explains the background and analyses the ‘alternatives’ to EPAs, in order to tackle common misperceptions. Moving on from what has been the focus of debates, namely, the reciprocal liberalisation required under WTO rules, it sheds some light on the non‐goods trade aspects of EPAs which, while integral to economic policy, are inherently hard to quantify and often skimmed over in existing studies or addressed in ideological terms.