Socio-political forecasting and management information systems

This paper is an attempt to place the forecasting of socio-political variables in the context of actual information needs of industrial companies. Initially discussion is of the effect of socio-political variables upon companies with a review of this significance for decision makers and decision takers. An attempt is then made to categorise existing forecasting techniques in the context of socio-political data whilst regard is paid to the possible effects of socio-political variables on companies. Discussion is then broadened to a consideration of current practice both in the UK and in the USA. Problems implicit in current practice are commented upon and the paper ends with the conclusion that socio-political forecasting is currently significant to many companies and that there is a major potential role for management scientists to play in the development and implementation of appropriate techniques.     

Fossil fuel supplies simulation 1972–1979

Fossil fuels are an important source of energy for Ontario Hydro and purchases exceed $100 million per year. This paper describes a computer simulation of the inventory situation over an eight-year period, which is being used to assess the relationship between order flexibility and the target carry-over stocks at the beginning of each shipping season. A simple way of presenting the results for management evaluation is illustrated. Variations of the model are used to assess random influences, such as strikes, and to determine the economic balance between holding costs and stock-outs.     

The application of microcomputers in production management

The findings reported result from a questionnaire survey, and a number of company interviews. Further questions which need to be answered are identified, and a research project to provide these answers is outlined.     

A model of completed length of service

The measurement of labour turnover is important both because high turnover is regarded as a sign that something is wrong in a firm and also because quantitative information is important in planning recruitment programmes. This paper describes a statistical technique which has proved useful for the measurement and prediction of turnover.     

Family things: Attending the household disbandment of older adults

When adults move to smaller quarters in later life, family members become involved in the management and disposal of possessions-some cherished, some mundane. Interviews were conducted with 14 family members who had participated in a household disbandment by elders. This qualitative analysis describes the various tasks that were undertaken by family members; how family members asserted themselves in the process; how they were an outlet for possessions; the way that some possessions are shared; and implications for family's story about itself. Household disbandment is a field for all sorts of family practices that can be summarized along three continua that characterize (1) the receiving of goods, (2) the location of agency between elder and family members, and (3) family's self-understanding.     

Confronting the Material Convoy in Later Life

We adapt a metaphor from life course studies to designate the whole of one's possessions, across time, as a convoy of material support. This dynamic collection of things supports daily life and the self, but it can also present difficulty in later life. To alleviate the purported burdens of the material convoy, a discourse has arisen that urges elders and their family members to reduce the volume of possessions. An analysis of 11 such possession management texts shows authors addressing two distinct audiences about elders' need to downsize: family members and elders themselves. Authors who speak to family members do so with an urgent, unsentimental tone that echoes mainstream clutter-control advice about disorderly, overfull households. In texts for elders, the standard critique about consumption and unruly lives is gentler, more sensitive to the meaning of things, and underplays the emotions of divestment. There is stress on the responsibility to spare the next generation and control one's legacy. These latter texts seem to respect that downsizing in later life symbolizes a narrowing of the life world.     

Methods for testing subblock patterns

A number of statistical tests have been recommended over the last twenty years for assessing the randomness of long binary strings used in cryptographic algorithms. Several of these tests include methods of examining subblock patterns. These tests are the uniformity test, the universal test and the repetition test. The effectiveness of these tests are compared based on the subblock length, the limitations on data requirements, and on their power in detecting deviations from randomness. Due to the complexity of the test statistics, the power functions are estimated by simulation methods. The results show that for small subblocks the uniformity test is more powerful than the universal test, and that there is some doubt about the parameters of the hypothesised distribution for the universal test statistic. For larger subblocks the results show that the repetition test is the most effective test, since it requires far less data than either of the other two tests and is an efficient test in detecting deviations from randomness in binary strings.     

Perceived Benefits of VFW Post Participation for Older Adults

Older adults, as active members of the Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW), describe multiple benefits of participation in the organization to their overall well-being. This qualitative study examined the perspectives of 20 active participants of a VFW Post and its Ladies Auxiliary. Findings indicate that, for the study participants, the VFW serves as a primary source of cross-generational influence, emotional support, and meaningful activity and provides a safe and secure environment for members. This article provides valuable information that social work researchers and practitioners can use to help increase older adults' civic engagement and address service gaps.