A Graphical Tool for Interpreting Regression Coefficients of Trinomial Logit Models

Multinomial logit (also termed multi-logit) models permit the analysis of the statistical relation between a categorical response variable and a set of explicative variables (called covariates or regressors). Although multinomial logit is widely used in both the social and economic sciences, the interpretation of regression coefficients may be tricky, as the effect of covariates on the probability distribution of the response variable is nonconstant and difficult to quantify. The ternary plots illustrated in this article aim at facilitating the interpretation of regression coefficients and permit the effect of covariates (either singularly or jointly considered) on the probability distribution of the dependent variable to be quantified. Ternary plots can be drawn both for ordered and for unordered categorical dependent variables, when the number of possible outcomes equals three (trinomial response variable); these plots allow not only to represent the covariate effects over the whole parameter space of the dependent variable but also to compare the covariate effects of any given individual profile. The method is illustrated and discussed through analysis of a dataset concerning the transition of master’s graduates of the University of Trento (Italy) from university to employment.     

The Evolution of Knowledge and the Dynamics of an Industry Network

The paper moves a step forward in the direction of establishing a connection between the structure and evolution of knowledge bases and the structure and evolution of organizational forms in innovative activities in a science-intensive industry. The paper has an explicit focus on the dynamics of the network of collaborative agreements in R&D in the pharma/biotech industry after the “molecular biology revolution”. Using a comprehensive dataset, built by the authors integrating several sources in the industry, the dynamics of the network over time is extensively analyzed. With regards to network structure, it is found that, while the size of the network increases over time due to net flows of entry, its topological properties remain relatively unchanged. The evolution of the network has occurred without relevant deformations in the core-periphery profile. With regards to age-dependent propensity to collaborate, the paper finds that the extent of inter-generational collaboration is much more significant than intra-generational collaboration. In addition, the propensity of firms of a given generation to enter into collaboration with firms of a different generation increases with the distance between the two, while the total number of intra-generational collaborations decreases over time and, moreover, tends to decrease for most recent generations. In the paper a unitary and coherent explanation of the evidence is developed, coming to reveal the existence of a striking isomorphism between structural properties of the dynamics of knowledge and of the evolution of network structure. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Designing from activities. The "ability /difficulty table", a useful tool to detect the "limit users" in the Design for All Approach

In the Design for All Approach (DfA), an important phase of the design process consists in the individuation of the so-called "limit users", that are that particular group of people with the most "critical" features for the autonomous fruition of a system or a product. Generally, however, it is not easy to identify them in a complete and objective way. A clear and complete outline of design requirements with respect to the "normal" use of a service, product or environment, moreover, is of fundamental importance in inclusive design. In fact, we know how bad design, that doesn't take in account the true "strategies of use", may lead to situations of handicap, also serious, temporary or permanent, regardless if the user is a "disabled" person or not. In relation to this scenario, the paper shows the results of a research which has developed the "Ability/Difficulty Table" ("A/D Table"), a new tool useful to identify the so-called "limit users" and their needs with respect to different activities, linking the main "difficulties", expressed by people, with the "abilities" required to carry out in autonomy the investigated activity.     

Techno-sovereignism: the political rationality of contemporary Italian populism

This article provides an original exploration of the self-identified populist coalition leading the Italian government between 2018 and 2019. The analysis, informed by a governmentality approach, starts by scrutinising the economic, social, and cultural issues framed as political “problems” by the coalition, also highlighting the tensions underlying such constructions. The second step charts how this political subject sought to address those problems by deploying an array of political technologies. From examining these two dimensions, the article then can discern the composite rationality—techno-sovereignism—that drove precariously the coalition’s art of government. Finally, the article sketches out some forms of contestation against the techno-sovereignist operations, whose significance may stretch beyond the Italian borders. Overall, although the Italian populist coalition turned out to be ephemeral, the dynamics that characterized its emergence and functioning could still be used heuristically to understand the interactions and reciprocal adjustments possibly used by right-wing and technocratic populist groups to exert political power conjointly.

     

Security branding and digital narrations. Security issues representation on Twitter

In the contemporary multicentric world, sovereign states have to manage carefully the construction of their image, defining their role and aspirations. With the re-definition of the state centric politics, stories become relevant: communication is a form of power, and networked forms of communication are becoming progressively a way to conquer the transnational public spheres. Through strategic narratives of foreign politics, states try to set up the ‘tales’ of international affairs and foreign strategies, to suggest a world vision, a causal interpretation, determining frames that affect transnational actors’ position in the international environment. Sovereign states develop these kind of frame using tools and theories referred to the commercial branding tradition to promote and support their own policies and identity. We decided to investigate how that process is made through information diffusion on digital platforms.

In this work, it has been analyzed the content presented through Twitter posts by the Foreign Ministries accounts of four different States dissimilar for geopolitical positioning and security concerns (USA; Israel; France; Sweden), for a period of three months (9/1/2015-11/30/2015); leading to the identification of different models and characteristic patterns of self-representation.

The thematic content analysis, based on the identification of macrocategories and micro-issues, has led to the identification of different models and characteristic patterns of self-representation, determined by domestic vicissitudes, and has shown some regularities, caused by the branding vocation of autobiographical online contents.     

On the Use of Shadow Prices for Sustainable Well-Being Measurement

Social Indicators Research - This paper tries to answer the following research question: can multidimensional concepts like well-being or sustainability be measured by using a single metric such as...     

Are there electoral cycles of emigration? An empirical investigation based on European data

Economic literature suggests that economic factors and the availability of amenities act as determinants of migration choices together with socio‐demographic factors. Migration has also been found to be the consequence of political instability. This article argues that specific political events, i.e., democratic elections, may be linked to migration flows. By using European data over the 1999‐2012 time period, our system GMM estimations reveal that there is an emigration political cycle across European democracies and across the young democracies of Central and Eastern European countries. We observe that regular elections tend to diminish emigration ratios, whereas endogenous elections have the opposite effect. These results suggest special challenges for governments and oppositions, which are also discussed.     

Association between long-term erectile dysfunction and biochemical recurrence after permanent seed I125 implant brachytherapy for prostate cancer. A longitudinal study of a single-institution

We aimed to investigate the predictive factor of erectile dysfunction (ED) in prostate cancer (PCa) patients who underwent low-dose permanent I¹²⁵ seed implant brachytherapy and to investigate if ED could represent a patient’s reported outcome measures (PROMs) of efficacy of BT and indirectly associated with biochemical recurrence free survival (BRFS). From 2000 to 2012, 176 consecutive patients with low-risk PCa underwent BT. ED was evaluated with the International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF-5). Cox regression analysis was performed to assess significant predictors of mild-to-severe ED and BRFS after BT, including covariates. The 10-year actuarial rate of ED was 66%. Subjects with severe ED had higher values of D90 (183.0 versus 177.0; p?p?p?p?=?0.20), while D90?≤?180?Gy independently predicted BCR (HR: 4.65; [95%CI: 1.25–17.34]; p?125 implant, but it is not associated with better BRFS.     

Bayesian adaptive dose‐escalation designs for simultaneously estimating the optimal and maximum safe dose based on safety and efficacy

The main purpose of dose‐escalation trials is to identify the dose(s) that is/are safe and efficacious for further investigations in later studies. In this paper, we introduce dose‐escalation designs that incorporate both the dose‐limiting events and dose‐limiting toxicities (DLTs) and indicative responses of efficacy into the procedure. A flexible nonparametric model is used for modelling the continuous efficacy responses while a logistic model is used for the binary DLTs. Escalation decisions are based on the combination of the probabilities of DLTs and expected efficacy through a gain function. On the basis of this setup, we then introduce 2 types of Bayesian adaptive dose‐escalation strategies. The first type of procedures, called “single objective,” aims to identify and recommend a single dose, either the maximum tolerated dose, the highest dose that is considered as safe, or the optimal dose, a safe dose that gives optimum benefit risk. The second type, called “dual objective,” aims to jointly estimate both the maximum tolerated dose and the optimal dose accurately. The recommended doses obtained under these dose‐escalation procedures provide information about the safety and efficacy profile of the novel drug to facilitate later studies. We evaluate different strategies via simulations based on an example constructed from a real trial on patients with type 2 diabetes, and the use of stopping rules is assessed. We find that the nonparametric model estimates the efficacy responses well for different underlying true shapes. The dual‐objective designs give better results in terms of identifying the 2 real target doses compared to the single‐objective designs.