Near‐Misses and Future Disaster Preparedness

Disasters garner attention when they occur, and organizations commonly extract valuable lessons from visible failures, adopting new behaviors in response. For example, the United States saw numerous security policy changes following the September 11 terrorist attacks and emergency management and shelter policy changes following Hurricane Katrina. But what about those events that occur that fall short of disaster? Research that examines prior hazard experience shows that this experience can be a mixed blessing. Prior experience can stimulate protective measures, but sometimes prior experience can deceive people into feeling an unwarranted sense of safety. This research focuses on how people interpret near‐miss experiences. We demonstrate that when near‐misses are interpreted as disasters that did not occur and thus provide the perception that the system is resilient to the hazard, people illegitimately underestimate the danger of subsequent hazardous situations and make riskier decisions. On the other hand, if near‐misses can be recognized and interpreted as disasters that almost happened and thus provide the perception that the system is vulnerable to the hazard, this will counter the basic “near‐miss” effect and encourage mitigation. In this article, we use these distinctions between resilient and vulnerable near‐misses to examine how people come to define an event as either a resilient or vulnerable near‐miss, as well as how this interpretation influences their perceptions of risk and their future preparedness behavior. Our contribution is in highlighting the critical role that people's interpretation of the prior experience has on their subsequent behavior and in measuring what shapes this interpretation.     

Forthcoming in Sociological Forum

Volume Contents

Forthcoming in Sociological Forum     

LATINO FAMILIES IN THERAPY: ENGAGEMENT AND EVALUATION*

General guidelines are offered for the successful engagement of Latino families in family therapy. It is suggested that a therapist's involvement of Latinos in therapy requires both skills in family therapy and sensitivity to cultural issues. Factors found to be useful in the family assessment are presented. Furthermore, issues in the engagement and evaluation phases of family therapy with Latino families are discussed, and illustrative clinical material is presented.     

The Development of Vocational Realism in Black American College Students

A total of 172 Black students completed a survey of biographical, educational, and vocational information about themselves and their immediate relatives. The results indicated that educational realism tended to increase across the college years. There was no difference in satisfaction with school or intent to leave school as a function of educational realism or salary realism. Vocationally realistic male and female students did not differ in age.     

What about Rural Blight? Housing and Neighborhood Conditions in Southeastern Small Towns

Though the concept of blight clarifies housing and neighborhood changes in rural and small towns experiencing disinvestment and decline, the term is rarely examined outside of urban discourse. This study explores the extent of rural blight and its relationship to community characteristics using survey results from elected officials and staff members of small towns in one southeastern state. We examine the historical background of blight, including its connections to urban renewal, racial bias and stereotyping, and the broken windows theory. Among the small towns in the study, economic blight, particularly dilapidated housing, was prevalent. Social blight, which includes behaviors that are thought to be threatening or criminal in nature, was less common but correlated moderately with economic forms of blight. While social disorganization and collective efficacy theories link a range of demographic characteristics to physical and social disorder, our findings pointed only to a significant relationship between communities with a higher portion of the population who are black and multiple forms of extensive blight. More research is needed to understand the relationship, both observed and perceived, between economic and social blight in rural small towns and how these issues may be remediated through local collective action.     

Income support for Australian carers since 1983: social justice,social investment and the cloak of gender neutrality

Income support for carers has been available in Australia since the early 1980s. In contrast to most other forms of income support, eligibility for Carer Payment has been progressively expanded in recent years, and increasing numbers of carers are claiming the payment as a result. This article examines the history of income support for carers by reviewing changes in eligibility criteria in the social security legislation and considering how those changes were framed. We argue that reforms to carers' income support have developed within competing frames of social justice and social investment, with an increasing emphasis on a social investment discourse, which prioritises paid work over care. Neither of the dominant frames addresses gender equality, and in practice, income support policy has reinforced familial (women's) responsibility for caring. Given the gendered nature of caring in Australia, gender equality issues must be considered in future policy reforms to ensure that the competing pressures on women to care and to engage in paid work do not lead to greater disadvantage and inequality for women and the people for whom they care.     

A grassroots prototype for trauma-informed child welfare system change

The development of trauma-informed child welfare systems (TICWSs) that advance individual agency practice to target transformation of the system as a whole has been conceptualized but not documented. A grassroots effort to build a TICWS with key participants (e.g., Department of Human Services, Community Mental Health, Family Court, schools) in nine Michigan communities provides a field tested model for implementation. This article described what emerged as the core elements for a TICWS, which includes (1) development and support of a project champion, (2) trauma identification, (3) comprehensive assessment of traumatic impact, (4) evidence based trauma treatment, (5) establishing a common trauma language, and (6) trauma-informed decision-making. Several new instruments for assessing aTICWS are identified. Lessons learned are highlighted for consideration of communities seeking to develop TICWSs.     

Predictors of Frequency of Sexual Health Communication: Perceptions from Early Adolescent Youth in Rural Arkansas

Parent–child communication about sex-related themes can shape adolescents’ attitudes and beliefs, and have the potential to contribute to their decision either to engage in or abstain from sexual activity. Despite the burgeoning literature in this area, few studies have examined the issue as it pertains specifically to rural early adolescent youth. The current investigation addresses this gap by examining whether familial, situational, and sociodemographic factors were associated with youth’ perceptions of frequency of communication with parents about multiple sex-related topics among a rural population (N?=?252). Multiple regression results suggest that being a female, being a youth of color, level of closeness with father and spending enough time with one’s father predicted increased frequency of sex-related communication between parent and child. Our findings show that situational and sociodemographic differences play a significant role in predicting frequency levels of sex communication. Intervention efforts aimed at rural early adolescent youth should be planned with such differences in mind.     

Airline Safety Improvement Through Experience with Near‐Misses: A Cautionary Tale

In recent years, the U.S. commercial airline industry has achieved unprecedented levels of safety, with the statistical risk associated with U.S. commercial aviation falling to 0.003 fatalities per 100 million passengers. But decades of research on organizational learning show that success often breeds complacency and failure inspires improvement. With accidents as rare events, can the airline industry continue safety advancements? This question is complicated by the complex system in which the industry operates where chance combinations of multiple factors contribute to what are largely probabilistic (rather than deterministic) outcomes. Thus, some apparent successes are realized because of good fortune rather than good processes, and this research intends to bring attention to these events, the near‐misses. The processes that create these near‐misses could pose a threat if multiple contributing factors combine in adverse ways without the intervention of good fortune. Yet, near‐misses (if recognized as such) can, theoretically, offer a mechanism for continuing safety improvements, above and beyond learning gleaned from observable failure. We test whether or not this learning is apparent in the airline industry. Using data from 1990 to 2007, fixed effects Poisson regressions show that airlines learn from accidents (their own and others), and from one category of near‐misses—those where the possible dangers are salient. Unfortunately, airlines do not improve following near‐miss incidents when the focal event has no clear warnings of significant danger. Therefore, while airlines need to and can learn from certain near‐misses, we conclude with recommendations for improving airline learning from all near‐misses.