Improving Flood Risk Communication by Focusing on Prevention‐Focused Motivation

This article proposes an approach to flood risk communication that gives particular emphasis to the distinction between prevention and promotion motivation. According to E. Tory Higgins, the promotion system and the prevention system are assumed to coexist in every person, but one or the other may be temporarily or chronically more accessible. These insights have far‐reaching implications for our understanding of people's reasoning about risks. Flood risk communication framed in terms of prevention involves the notions of chance and harm, woven into a story about particular events that necessitate decisions to be more careful about safety issues and protect one's family and oneself from danger. The article describes how the insights worked out in practice, using a flood risk communication experiment among a sample from the general population in a highly populated river delta of the Netherlands. It had a posttest‐only control group design (n = 2,302). The results showed that risk communication had a large effect on the participants’ responses and that this effect was higher among chronic prevention‐focused people than among others. Any information that increased the fit between a prevention‐framed message and a person's chronic prevention motivation produced stronger situationally induced, prevention‐focused responses. This may significantly improve communication about risks. In contrast, the notion of water city projects, featuring waterside living, had more appeal to promotion‐focused people.     

Comparing migrants to non-migrants: The case of Dutch migration to New Zealand

We analyse post-war Dutch migration to New Zealand. We document that history, reflect on analytical and econometric modelling and then combine a sample of Dutch migrants in New Zealand with a representative sample of Dutch in The Netherlands to estimate wage equations and the determinants of the migration decision. We use the results for ex post evaluation of the migration decision.Joop Hartog is Fellow of IZA (Bonn), CESifo (München), AIAS and Tinbergen Institute (Amsterdam). Work on this project was begun when Hartog was Erskine Visitor at the University of Canterbury, Christchurch New Zealand. Rainer Winkelmann is Fellow of CEPR and IZA (Bonn). This paper is produced as part of a CEPR research programme on European Migration from Economic Analysis to Policy Response, supported by a grant from the Commission of the European Communities under its Human Capital and Mobility Programme (no. ERBCHRXCT940515).It was presented at the European Society for Population Economics meetings in Bonn, June 2000. We gratefully acknowledge comments by Justin Lee Tobias, Jacques Poot, Ed Vytlacil, an anonymous referee and Paul Schultz. Responsible editor: T. Paul Schultz.     

How important is homeland education for refugees’ economic position in The Netherlands?

We use data on refugees admitted to The Netherlands that include registration of education in their homeland by immigration officers. Such data are seldom available. We investigate the quality and reliability of the registrations and then use them to assess effects on refugees’ economic position during the first 5 years after arrival. The most remarkable finding is the absence of returns to higher education.

A governance network perspective on environmental conflicts in China: findings from the Dalian paraxylene conflict

Employing the Governance Network framework, this article presents an in-depth case study of the conflict that evolved from 2003 onwards over the construction and operation of a paraxylene plant in Dalian, China. The study explores the usefulness of this framework as an empirical tool to describe and make sense of policy processes and governance in multi-actor situations in China. The analysis shows the lack of anticipation and deliberation by Chinese governments, resulting in the buildup of citizens’ concerns, mediated by social media beyond government control. This results in an outbreak of protest followed by uncoordinated governmental responses, with high costs for all parties. It is argued that, because of the underlying institutional causes, the challenges are even greater for Chinese governments to come to grips with the increasing need for internal coordination, deal with new social media, and balance economic and environmental values.     

Survey of feral rock doves (Columba livia) in Amsterdam, a bird-human association

We carried out a survey of the feral rock doves (Columba livia) visible in the public areas of the fourteen Town Councils in Amsterdam. The objectives were to detect the preferential locations of the feral pigeons and to obtain reference values of their population sizes in order to be able to evaluate the effect of possible control measures. We registered 354 locations were twenty or more feral pigeons were visible during feeding. In these locations, averaged over ten to twelve counts, we counted 10,056 pigeons. Moreover we observed that at another 541 locations at least once five pigeons were visible during feeding. In all 894 locations we counted, averaged over four counts, 11,885 pigeons. By Town Council, we calculated strong positive correlations between the average number of pigeons per hectare, the human population density, the number of houses and the yearly number of kilos organic waste per hectare.     

Risk Communication in The Netherlands: The Monitored Introduction of the EC "Post-Seveso" Directive

Implementation of article 8.1 of the EC-"Seveso" Directive (82/501/EC) is now under way in many countries in Europe. In The Netherlands, the implementation of the Directive started with a carefully monitored introduction of active information provision at two sites (Dordrecht and Elst). This introduction was supported by a multidisciplinary research group. This group helped to develop the risk communication program and also played a role in the evaluation of the program. This paper describes these processes and their evaluation. We will focus on the design of the risk communication programs and the effects of the programs on knowledge and attitudes of the local target groups. This effort and its results clearly started an institutional learning process involving governmental bodies at several organizational levels (local, regional, and national), and industrial organizations (individual firms and organizations of industries). Monitoring the design, the implementation, and the effects of active information provision proves an effective means to gain experience with the implementation of the Seveso Directive and could help to facilitate further implementation.     

Increases in Female Labour Force Participation in Europe: Similarities and Differences

Low educational levels and the effect of children are recognized as the most important factors for low female participation rates. Over the last decades female labour supply in Europe has shown a large increase. This may be related to changes in the level of education or fertility. It is also possible that it is due to changes in behaviour, as influenced by the social and institutional context. Our results show that increases in the participation rates cannot be explained by changes in either educational level nor in the number and timing of children. Female labour supply increases at all educational levels for women with and without children. In other words, it is mainly changes in behaviour that drive the increase in participation rates over the last decades.     

Measuring the effect of changing legislation on the frequency of divorce: The Netherlands, 1830–1990

This article discusses different procedures for measuring the effects of judicial changes on divorce rates. It presents an alternative model and applies it to a historical time series for the Netherlands. In this model, intervention variables were added to a statistical time-series (ARIMA) model. The conclusion of our analysis was that the effects of three judicial changes were only temporary. Revised text of a paper presented at the seminar “The Role of the State and of Public Opinion in Sexual Attitudes and Demographic Behaviour since the 18th Century,” 17th International Congress of Historical Sciences/ Commission Internationale de Démographie Historique, held in Madrid, August 31-September 1, 1990. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the policies of the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics.     

An Explanatory Model for Projecting Regional Fertility Differences in the Netherlands

Current differences in the level of the total fertility rate (TFR) between Dutch municipalities are smaller than they were in the 1970s and 1980s. Nevertheless, there are still considerable differences. Small municipalities have higher TFRs than large cities. This article aims to answer the question whether these differences will decline further until differences between large and small cities disappear. For that purpose we develop a regression model of regional differences in the TFR including demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural variables. Using the estimation results we decompose differences in fertility between large and small cities into the contribution of differences in levels of the determinants versus differences in the relationships between the determinants and fertility. The results show that differences in cultural variables have a larger effect on differences in the TFR than the demographic and socioeconomic variables. As cultural differences do not tend to change quickly, they will not lead to quick changes in regional differences in the TFR. Demographic differences are not expected to lead to strong changes either, as the two demographic variables (household structure and ethnic structure) have opposite effects. As the effect of the socioeconomic variable is caused by differences in the magnitude of the regression coefficient rather than by differences in the value of this variable, even if differences in this variable disappeared, this would still not lead to convergence of the TFR. Thus the article concludes that differences in the TFR between large and small cities are not likely to diminish quickly.     

Foraging for patchily-distributed leaf miners by the parasitic wasp,Dacnusa sibirica

Summary We studied the rules used by the female parasitoid,Dacnusa sibirica Telenga (Hymenoptera: Braconidae), for deciding when to leave a tomato leaflet on which she is searching for larvae of the leafminer,Liriomyza bryoniae Kalt. (Diptera: Agromyzidae). Females would deposit a marking pheromone on the leaflet and would leave the leaflet when the amount of the pheromone accumulated to the thresholdL, which is proportional to the amount of search effort on the leaflet.L appears to increase with host density since it rises after every encounter with a host (or mine).D. sibirica would employ an area-concentrated search, which is advantageous in foraging for hosts showing a clumped distribution.