Re‐framing the Analysis: A 3‐dimensional Perspective of Prisoners’ Children's Well‐being

This article highlights three dimensions to understanding children's well‐being during and after parental imprisonment which have not been fully explored in current research. A consideration of ‘time’ reveals the importance of children's past experiences and their anticipated futures. A focus on ‘space’ highlights the impact of new or altered environmental dynamics. A study of ‘agency’ illuminates how children cope within structural, material and social confines which intensify vulnerability and dependency. This integrated perspective reveals important differences in individual children's experiences and commonalities in broader systemic and social constraints on prisoners’ children. The paper analyses data from a prospective longitudinal study of 35 prisoners’ children during and after their (step) father's imprisonment to illustrate the arguments.     

Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges

As part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis and Risk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors’ accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk-related challenges for 2020–2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis.     

Inference and Decision Making for 21st-Century Drug Development and Approval

ABSTRACT

The cost and time of pharmaceutical drug development continue to grow at rates that many say are unsustainable. These trends have enormous impact on what treatments get to patients, when they get them and how they are used. The statistical framework for supporting decisions in regulated clinical development of new medicines has followed a traditional path of frequentist methodology. Trials using hypothesis tests of “no treatment effect” are done routinely, and the p-value < 0.05 is often the determinant of what constitutes a “successful” trial. Many drugs fail in clinical development, adding to the cost of new medicines, and some evidence points blame at the deficiencies of the frequentist paradigm. An unknown number effective medicines may have been abandoned because trials were declared “unsuccessful” due to a p-value exceeding 0.05. Recently, the Bayesian paradigm has shown utility in the clinical drug development process for its probability-based inference. We argue for a Bayesian approach that employs data from other trials as a “prior” for Phase 3 trials so that synthesized evidence across trials can be utilized to compute probability statements that are valuable for understanding the magnitude of treatment effect. Such a Bayesian paradigm provides a promising framework for improving statistical inference and regulatory decision making.     

Too Hard to Shout Over the Loudest Frame: Effects of Competing Frames in the Context of the Crystallized Media Coverage on Offshore Outsourcing

This study investigates the effects of competing frames in newspaper coverage of offshore outsourcing, an issue that is characterized by a predominantly negative, unemployment-focused media framing. The findings of a randomized, controlled experiment (N = 152) demonstrate that conventional framing effects do hold for this issue and for this media context by moving recipients’ attitudes in the direction consistent with the valence of the frame. However, they also show the backfire effect of the positively valenced frame among recipients with greater interest in political and economic news, who become less supportive of outsourcing if they read a story framing outsourcing from a consumer-oriented perspective. Our results contribute to the ongoing debate about the limits of framing effects on forming opinion about contentious policy issues and demonstrate the challenges for nondominant perspectives to make their way to news-savvy audiences even when the nature of the issue in question necessitates considering them.     

Human capital and agency effects on CEO compensation of IPO biopharmaceutical firms and the market’s response

This paper examines the determinants of base pay and total incentive compensation packages of CEOs of biopharmaceutical firms that have recently gone public, and whether human capital and agency factors affect the market’s response to the initial public offering. We find that in terms of net proceeds, the IPO market appears to reward the firms that have founder-CEOs and CEOs with higher incentive compensation. CEOs with prior venture capital experience are associated with receiving higher incentive compensation, while CEOs with a greater ownership interest in the firm receive lower incentive compensation but higher salaries. CEOs of firms with a greater percentage of insiders are associated with lower salaries. The results should add to our understanding related to human capital and agency theories, as well as help firms and investors better understand and structure CEO compensation.     

Random effects regression mixtures for analyzing infant habituation

Random effects regression mixture models are a way to classify longitudinal data (or trajectories) having possibly varying lengths. The mixture structure of the traditional random effects regression mixture model arises through the distribution of the random regression coefficients, which is assumed to be a mixture of multivariate normals. An extension of this standard model is presented that accounts for various levels of heterogeneity among the trajectories, depending on their assumed error structure. A standard likelihood ratio test is presented for testing this error structure assumption. Full details of an expectation-conditional maximization algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation are also presented. This model is used to analyze data from an infant habituation experiment, where it is desirable to assess whether infants comprise different populations in terms of their habituation time.     

Racial Differences in Abused Older African American Males, Caucasian Males, and their Abusers

This study examined racial differences between mistreated and abused older African American and Caucasian men. The racial and gender differences of their perpetrators were also examined. Data from a single elder abuse provider agency in the State of Illinois were analyzed. Differences with respect to physical abuse, emotional abuse, physical neglect, deprivation, confinement, and financial exploitation were examined, as were demographic characteristics and limitations of victims and abusers.