对关于统计推断性质的十四个难以理解和有待澄清的问题的思考（下）

十四、概率上限和概率下限在理论和实际中有什么作用?　　由于具体的或认识上的概率的上、下限产生于不同的环境,短语概率“上限”和概率“下限”可以从不同的角度来解释。在格罗宁根,从20世纪70年代中期以来,就有一种对后验概率构造置信区间的传统[126,4]。在罗吉斯蒂回归中,即使对比例风险回归模型,也可得到类似的结果,见[70,17]。标准误和置信限加深了评估中涉及的统计不确定性的印象。除了这些统计不确定性外,还存在系统误差引起的不确定性:参数模型在某种程度上总是错误的。因此将精力集中在这些统计不确定性上多少是一种误导。然而在…     

对关于统计推断性质的十四个难以理解和有待澄清的问题的思考（中）

四、是否应该把非参数和半参数表示法强加进似然方法的框架中?　　但尼尔·贝努利[21]曾预言似然方法拥有渐进有效、对于大多数参数问题行之有效的可计算性等优点。如果参数的数目与观测值的数目成比例地增长,这些优点就会逊色不少。结果的不一致性和识别问题(属于变量误差模型     

你那桃花女子是谁

方可曼便以夸张的姿态在她的脸上亲了一大口。这种亲昵的举止是不得夏小桃欢喜的。原本生分的一对人,如若不是因为陈思言,又怎会一下熟络得像好姐妹。     

我和你咫尺天涯的距离

01 这么多年以后,我选择离开。坐很大的航轮,从这一边到大洋彼岸。清晨五点的时候到甲板看风景,海风灌满长裙,朝霞很迷人。我就此告别F城。从此,我在这边,你在那边。我们之间隔过了万水和千山,我的傍晚是你的清晨,可我依然爱你,我们也依然有着一样的四季寒暑,于我来说这已经足够,真的足够。     

Return migration from Australia: a case study

"The study investigates the departure from Australia of former settlers who arrived during the 1980 calendar year. The 1980 settler arrival cohort [consists] of 75,167 visaed migrants.... The study has three main aims: (i) to analyse departures from Australia of the 1980 settler arrival cohort with a view to gauging the success of Australia's immigration program in retaining settlers; (ii) to examine the retention rates of settlers with respect to characteristics...including age, sex, marital status, country of last residence, and settler eligibility category; and (iii) to consider implications of the findings." Australia's present immigration policy is discussed, previous research on return migration from Australia is summarized, and a detailed analysis of the departure data is presented. "This study found that by August 1984, 12.4 per cent of non-refugee settlers who arrived in Australia during 1980 had departed permanently but that only 0.6 per cent of the 1980 refugee cohort had done so." These figures represent a decline in immigrant departure rates since the 1960s and early 1970s. Small differences in departure rates by place of birth, age, and marital status, which may have demographic consequences if sustained over time, are noted. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Migration of the rural population under conditions of agro-industrial integration

Factors affecting rural-urban migration in the USSR are examined. The author suggests that a lower rate of such migration is associated with the creation of agro-industrial centers.     

Ergonomic risk assessment of nasogastric tube placement and implications for design and training

The placement of nasogastric (NG) tubes is known to be prone to error and may lead to serious issues for patient safety and wellbeing. In some instances these have been catastrophic and resulted in the death of the patient. This study sought to explore the potential risks associated with this procedure through the use of systematic prospective risk assessment. The research team used the Prospective Hazard Analysis (PHA) toolkit developed by Ward et al (2010) . The study has shown a wide number of risks that cover equipment design, work organisation, and training issues. The link between equipment design and training provides an important example of the need for a systematic approach to reducing errors and improving resilience in this aspect of healthcare.     

THE DUALITY DIAGRAM IN DATA ANALYSIS: EXAMPLES OF MODERN APPLICATIONS

Today's data-heavy research environment requires the integration of different sources of information into structured datasets that can not be analyzed as simple matrices. We introduce an old technique, known in the European data analyses circles as the Duality Diagram Approach, put to new uses through the use of a variety of metrics and ways of combining different diagrams together. This issue of the Annals of Applied Statistics contains contemporary examples of how this approach provides solutions to hard problems in data integration. We present here the genesis of the technique and how it can be seen as a precursor of the modern kernel based approaches.