Missing data and forecasting in multivariate time series: An application of the common components dynamic linear model

Summary The paper deals with missing data and forecasting problems in multivariate time series making use of the Common Components Dynamic Linear Model (DLMCC), presented in Quintana (1985), and West and Harrison (1989). Some results are presented and discussed: exploiting the correlation between series, estimated by the DLMCC, the paper shows as it is possible to update state vector posterior distributions for the unobserved series. This is realized on the base of the updating of the observed series state vectors, for which the usual Kalman filter equations can be applied. An application concerning some Italian private consumption series provides an example of the model capabilities.     

Plaid designs for the evaluation of training for medical practitioners

The training of medical practitioners to improve the practitioner/patient relationship may be difficult, as limitations often exist on the choice of patients included in the study. A specific study of this type of training is given. It is proposed that a simple modification and generalization of Yates' plaid-square designs be used. It is shown that a replicated plaid-design incorporates as a special case the criss-cross or strip-plot design. The usefulness of these designs in studies of the training of medical practitioners is illustrated. The basic characteristics of their analysis are outlined.     

The evaluation of DNA evidence in pedigrees requiring population inference

Summary. The evaluation of nuclear DNA evidence for identification purposes is performed here taking account of the uncertainty about population parameters. Graphical models are used to detail the hypotheses being debated in a trial with the aim of obtaining a directed acyclic graph. Graphs also clarify the set of evidence that contributes to population inferences and they also describe the conditional independence structure of DNA evidence. Numerical illustrations are provided by re-examining three case-studies taken from the literature. Our calculations of the weight of evidence differ from those given by the authors of case-studies in that they reveal more conservative values.     

Development in youth enterprises

Business enterprises run by youth can create jobs and teach the principles of free enterprise but also convey skills that can be used by employees in large companies, as well as political activists and entrepreneurs. Research is needed to test the efficacy of this approach and identify its key components.     

Challenges in Meeting the Mental Health Needs of Urban Asian American Adolescents: Service Providers’ Perspectives

Although Asian American youth are often viewed as the model minority group who are doing well, research with youths, parents, and school personnel have documented significant unmet mental health needs among this population. However, little is known about the perspectives of service providers who work with Asian American youth in afterschool and mental health care settings with respect to what they perceive as challenges meeting the psychosocial needs of the population. The current exploratory study used Consensual Qualitative Research to analyze in-depth interviews with mental health providers, educators, and advocates working with Asian American youths in a multiethnic large urban environment. Results found that service providers were attuned to the multiple needs of the community but also spoke of challenges in meeting basic and psychological needs due to difficult family dynamics, structural stressors (e.g., economic and legal), and societal stigma and discrimination. We draw implications for providing more integrated services across different levels of urban Asian American adolescents’ ecological system to better meet the psychosocial challenges facing this population.     

Novel Funding Paradigm for Social Work Services in China: Reflections on the Guangzhou Experience

Three decades of Chinese economic modernization created wonders that transform the living of the population. Yet economic affluence also spawns juggernauts of new social ills, and mounting social tensions emerge from widening inequalities between the wealthy and the less privileged. Local governments are under intense pressure to identify new approaches to addressing new social problems such as rising unemployment, elderly neglect, and juvenile delinquency through social management. This article recapitulates some of the experience of non‐governmental organizations through collaborating with the authorities, in pioneering social work services using new mode of public funding mechanism.     

The disenchantment of Bitcoin: unveiling the myth of a digital currency

Bitcoin and its peculiar, decentralized transaction system, have already ignited interest by professional and retail traders in search for profits and by economists and legal experts, looking for possible regulation to contain illegal uses. We instead examine the unexpected and ongoing success of Bitcoin from a sociological perspective, first questioning its unusual legitimation system, backed by the so called ‘blockchain technology’, instead of by governmental authorities. Then we collect data and elements to reconstruct Bitcoin’s history as a cryptocurrency, starting from the mysterious story surrounding its birth. We then follow its spread and development through social networks and words of mouth, together with its sudden booms and bursts, finally to suggest that both users and institutional regulators should be aware of the risks of Bitcoin and of its alleged power to challenge our very notion of money.     

Why mentoring in the workplace works

Workplaces are ideal contexts for mentoring relationships between adults and older youth. To teach the competencies required in contemporary workplaces (many of which are equally useful in other settings), mentors need to use sophisticated teaching behaviors, which the authors characterize as reflective questioning and problem solving.     

Boundary Politics in the Public Sphere: Openness, Secrecy, and Leak

The issue of openness/secrecy has not received adequate attention in current discussion on the public sphere. Drawing on ideas in critical theory, political sociology, and cultural sociology, this article explores the cultural and political dynamics involved in the public sphere in modern society vis-à-vis the practice of open/secret politics by the state. It argues that the media, due to their publicist quality, are situated at the interface between publicity and secrecy, which thereby allows for struggles over the boundary of state openness/secrecy in the public sphere. A theory of boundary politics is introduced that is contextualized in the relationship among state forms, the means of making power visible/invisible (media strategies), and symbolic as well as discursive practices in the public sphere. In explaining the dynamics of boundary politics over openness/secrecy, three ideal-types of boundary creation are conceptualized: open politics, secrecy, and leak. The theory is illustrated with a case study of the Patten controversy in Hong Kong.     

Lust an der Macht – Frauen in Organisationen

Storyline and analysis of the film “The Devil Wears Prada” provide vivid scenes to derive reflections on organisational culture in globalised companies and women in chief positions. Women come into conflict with leading the company successfully, the dependence on efficient – female – staff and the image as a woman. The article illustrates, how influences of the company’s products fashion und fashion market have a normative effect, especially on female staff members. Theories of organisational culture, careers of women and findings of gender research are shown in connection with complex strategies of women in their determination to succeed, to self-realization and the pressure to adapt oneself. This involves reflected perspectives to leave clichés of gender and to reinforce organisational and personal potentials.