A Spatial-temporal Model for Temperature with Seasonal Variance

We propose a spatial-temporal stochastic model for daily average surface temperature data. First, we build a model for a single spatial location, independently on the spatial information. The model includes trend, seasonality, and mean reversion, together with a seasonally dependent variance of the residuals. The spatial dependency is modelled by a Gaussian random field. Empirical fitting to data collected in 16 measurement stations in Lithuania over more than 40 years shows that our model captures the seasonality in the autocorrelation of the squared residuals, a property of temperature data already observed by other authors. We demonstrate through examples that our spatial-temporal model is applicable for prediction and classification.     

Analysis and modelling of wind speed in New York

In this paper we propose an ARMA time-series model for the wind speed at a single spatial location, and estimate it on in-sample data recorded in three different wind farm regions in New York state. The data have a three-hour granularity, but based on applications to financial wind derivatives contracts, we also consider daily average wind speeds. We demonstrate that there are large discrepancies in the behaviour of daily average and three-hourly wind speed records. The validation procedure based on out-of-sample observations reflects that the proposed model is reliable and can be used for various practical applications, like, for instance, weather prediction, pricing of financial wind contracts, wind generated power, etc. Furthermore, we discuss some striking resemblances with temperature dynamics.     

Self-Stigma of seeking help and job burnout in mental health care providers: the comparative study of Lithuanian and the USA samples

This study aimed to explore the correlation between job burnout and self-stigma of seeking help among nonmedical mental health care providers (psychologists, social workers, and counselors) in two countries – Lithuania and the US. The study included 234 professionals (111 social workers and 123 psychologists) from Lithuania and 93 professionals (33 counselors, 23 social workers, and 37 psychologists) from the US on a voluntary basis (93% females, mean age – 39.81?years). They completed a self-reported questionnaire with the Self-Stigma of Seeking Help Scale (SSOSH) and the Maslach Burnout Inventory-General Survey (MBI-GS). The results revealed a statistically significant positive correlation between self-stigmatization and burnout in the Lithuanian sample, but only weak positive correlation between depersonalization and self-stigma of seeking help in the US sample. The relationship between the self-stigma of seeking help and burnout was stronger in the Lithuanian sample of professionals when compared to their colleagues in the US.     

Spatial–temporal model for wind speed in Lithuania

In this paper, we propose a spatial–temporal model for the wind speed (WS). We first estimate the model at the single spatial meteorological station independently on spatial correlations. The temporal model contains seasonality, a higher-order autoregressive component and a variance describing the remaining heteroskedesticity in residuals. We then model spatial dependencies by a Gaussian random field. The model is estimated on daily WS records from 18 meteorological stations in Lithuania. The validation procedure based on out-of-sample observations shows that the proposed model is reliable and can be used for various practical applications.     

Before,during and after crossing the border: narrating the ‘visa-free Grodno’

On 26 October 2016, Belarus introduced a visa-free border crossing regime for travellers visiting the Augustow Canal area and the city of Grodno. Based on a multi-method study, this article aims at investigating how this ‘visa-free regime’ is enacted and ‘narrated’ before, during and after border crossing. First, it analyses the website ‘grodnovisafree.by’ and searches for patterns of what the visitors encounter before travelling to the border area. Second, it analyses the border crossing experience, based on a participant observation while crossing the border from Lithuania to Belarus. Third, it investigates the linguistic and multimodal landscape after crossing the border in the city of Grodno. This study concludes that the ‘real’ ‘narrative’ about challenges and boundaries that the visitors have to overcome to cross the border is at times overshadowed by the ‘ideal’ picture of easily accessible Grodno and its area.     

Particle learning for Bayesian semi-parametric stochastic volatility model

This article designs a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm for estimation of Bayesian semi-parametric Stochastic Volatility model for financial data. In particular, it makes use of one of the most recent particle filters called Particle Learning (PL). SMC methods are especially well suited for state-space models and can be seen as a cost-efficient alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), since they allow for online type inference. The posterior distributions are updated as new data is observed, which is exceedingly costly using MCMC. Also, PL allows for consistent online model comparison using sequential predictive log Bayes factors. A simulated data is used in order to compare the posterior outputs for the PL and MCMC schemes, which are shown to be almost identical. Finally, a short real data application is included.     

Blinded by worries: sin taxes and demand for temptation under financial worries

Theory and Decision - Imposing “sin” taxes has been the preferred way governments tried to discourage the over-consumption of temptation goods for decades. However numerous evidence...     

Cross-national social work case analysis: learning from international experience within an electronic environment

This article presents the results of a pilot of a cross-national learning process within the context of social work education. The pilot was carried out in the electronic environment by students from four European universities (Hogeschool Utrecht, Sheffield, Tartu and Vilnius). The analysis of the social work case of a disabled person was aimed at developing students’ abilities to make sensitive cross-national comparisons, to communicate within a different language and cultural context and to demonstrate understanding between practice and policy in a different country. Students’ reflections revealed the relevance of cross-cultural social work case analysis for developing future social workers’ professional and personal competencies. The study offered new insights into the social reality of the students’ own countries, into social work education and practice, and provided a broader understanding of international social work trends. The evaluation of the piloted e-learning programme indicated the advantages and limitations of long distance, cross-national learning.

Straipsnyje pristatomi socialinio darbo studentams skirtos elektroninio mokymosi programos bandymo tarptautiniu lygiu rezultatai. Programos bandyme dalyvavo keturiu Europos auk?tuju mokyklu studentai (?efildo, Tartu, Vilniaus universitetu ir Utrechto Hogeschool). Elektronineje erdveje jiems buvo pateiktas neigalaus asmens problemi?kos socialines adaptacijos atvejis, kuri, vadovaujant destytojams, jie turejo sinchroni?kai i?analizuoti programoje nurodytomis pakopomis. Mokymo programos tikslas – ugdyti studentu tarpkulturine kompetencija, gebejimus atlikti lyginamaja analize, padeti jiems giliau suprasti ry?i tarp skirtingu ?aliu socialines politikos ir socialinio darbo praktikos. Studentu refleksijos bei atvejo sprendimo proceso analize parode, kad tokia programa yra tinkama ugdyti busimu socialiniu darbuotoju profesine ir asmenine kompetencija tarptautiniu lygiu. Vertindami elektroninio mokymosi programa, studentai konstatavo, kad ji leido jiems naujai pazvelgti i savo ?aliu socialine situacija, geriau suprasti tarptautinio socialinio darbo tendencijas ir suteike lyginamuju tyrimu patirties. Programos bandymas padejo identifikuoti ir distancinio mokymo trukumus, i kuriuos butina atsizvelgti taikant ja ateityje.

In dit artikel worden de resultaten van de pilot van een e-learning programma gepresenteerd waaraan Social Work opleidingen van verschillende Europese universiteiten en hogescholen hebben deelgenomen (Hogeschool Utrecht, Vilnius University, Sheffield Hallam University Sheffield en University of Tartu). Een Nederlandse casus over de begeleiding van de werksituatie van een verstandelijk gehandicapte cliënt vormde het uitgangspunt. Gedurende een periode van 10 weken, maakte van elk land een groep van 4 studenten een analyse en interventieplan. De resultaten van digitaal verstrekte opdrachten werden met elkaar vergeleken. De bedoeling was dat studenten op deze wijze inzicht verwerven in diversiteit van benaderingen binnen Social Work in Europa. Het resultaat van de pilot is dat minstens zoveel overeenkomsten als verschillen in de Social Work praktijk en het onderwijs zichtbaar werden. Internationale trends konden worden onderscheiden. In een evaluatie van het e-learning programma worden de mogelijkheden en beperkingen van grensoverschrijdend afstandsonderwijs besproken.