The Young and the Realigning: A Test of the Socialization Theory of Realignment

Recent research has demonstrated that Democrats and Republicansare divided along religious lines–98) confirm that thelink between religiosity and Republican Party identificationis stronger among younger than older voters.     

ONE THAT MADE A DIFFERENCE: COGNITIVE CONSISTENCY, POLITICAL KNOWLEDGE, AND THE 1980 PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

Despite high expectations, students of the 1960 and 1976 presidentialdebates were unable to find much evidence that these eventssignificantly affected voters' candidate preferences. As a result,scholars have turned increasingly to cognitive consistency theoriesto explain viewers' reactions (Or nonreactions) to debates.This article argues that one key mediating variable determiningwhether or not voters are influenced by debates is their levelof political knowledge. Looking at the largely ignored 1980Carter-Reagan debate, we find that voters with generally lowlevels of knowledge are particularly affected by the debate,and significant shifts in candidate preferences do occur amongthis group. The evidence suggests that the debate was an importantfactor in Ronald Reagan's bid to unseat his Democratic opponent.     

DO RESPONDENTS REALLY "MARK ALL THAT APPLY" ON SELF-ADMINISTERED QUESTIONS?

An experiment was conducted to assess the effect of using "markall that apply" question instructions on survey reporting aspart of the field test for the Second Follow-up of the NationalEducation Longitudinal Study of 1988 Eighth Graders (NELS:88).Mark-all-that-apply instructions were compared with instructionsasking respondents to indicate "yes" or "no" to each responseoption on responses to three items dispersed throughout thequestionnaire and consisting of different topics and numbersof response options. For the three items, significantly fewerresponse options were selected with the mark-all-that-applyinstructions than with the yes/no instructions, but becauseexternal validity criteria were not available, overreportingto the yes/no instructions cannot be ruled out. Instructiondependentprimacy effects, predicted under the hypothesis that respondentswould engage in more superficial processing when given the mark-all-that-applyinstructions, were not found.     

The "Positivity Bias" inEvaluations of Public Figures:Evidence Against Instrument Artifacts

The "positivity bias" is a term used to describe the consistentfavorable evaluation of public figures found in surveys overthe past 40 years. This paper explored several possible artifactualexplanations for this bias,focusing on the survey instrumentitself. Two experiments varied the labeling and ordering ofscale endpoints, the affective value of the initial contextevaluated, and the presence or absence of a prestigious jobtitle associated with the nameof the public figure. None ofthe variations produced significantly different levels of positivitythan the standard control condition used in each experiment.RichardR. Lau is a graduate student in social psychology at the Universityof California, Los Angeles. David O. Sears is Professor of Psychologyand Political Science at UCLA. Richard Centers is Professorof Psychology at UCLA. This research was supported in part byGrant #SOC73-09153 A03 from the National Science Foundationto David O. Sears. The authors wish to expess their thanks toMark Williams, who did most of the coding and checking involvedin the survey.     

‘Equally at home on Beacon Hill and Hill 16’? Transnational identities among Irish‐born return migrants from the United States

In this article, I examine the transnational identities that return migrants create upon resettlement in their country of origin. Specifically, I draw on interviews with Republic of Ireland‐born return migrants from the United States between the years 1996 and 2006. The analysis shows that return migrants – like other migrant groups – maintain and establish translocal identities and practices that straddle ‘here’ (Ireland) and ‘there’ (United States) upon return. However, the article goes further, asking why returnees develop such border‐spanning social fields. Some recent scholarship suggests that some migrants develop transnational identities as an adaptive response to a hostile receiving society. The analysis here shows a similar process at play for certain return migrants in the post‐return environment. Doubtless, for some returnees, a transnational identity is a natural outgrowth of having spent several years in the United States. Yet for others, one can better explain this transnational identity as a coping strategy to buffer resettlement anxieties and disappointments.     

Does the Role of Student Factors with Adolescent Substance Use Vary by Geography?

This study assesses the association of 12th-grade student factors (e.g., grades, classroom misbehaviors) with substance use (i.e., binge drinking, cigarette smoking, marijuana) across large, medium-sized, and nonmetropolitan areas. Based on a sample of 2,189 students from the 2013 Monitoring the Future data set, logistic regression analyses showed that poor student academic and behavioral factors were associated with higher substance use after controlling for gender, race, and socioeconomic status. Interaction analyses further showed no significant differences in the influence of student factors on substance use across locales. Results suggest that prevention efforts against substance use should target student factors regardless of area of residency.     

INFORMATION,INSTITUTIONS, AND BANKING SECTOR DEVELOPMENT IN WEST AFRICA

Using a new West African panel data set, we provide evidence on the determinants of individual banks' loans and assets in some of the poorest countries in the world. Higher loan default rates reduce both the loans to assets ratio and the volume of assets. However, the size of these effects is sensitive to bank age and ownership structure. Younger, private, domestically owned banks are most affected, suggesting that such banks face the most severe informational disadvantages. Very old government‐owned banks benefit from high default rates. We also explore how the quality of governance impacts on loans and assets. (JEL G21, O16)     

WHICH JOURNAL RANKINGS BEST EXPLAIN ACADEMIC SALARIES? EVIDENCE FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA

The ranking of an academic journal is important to authors, universities, journal publishers, and research funders. Rankings are gaining prominence as countries adopt regular research assessment exercises that especially reward publication in high‐impact journals. Yet even within a rankings‐oriented discipline like economics there is no agreement on how aggressively lower‐ranked journals are down‐weighted and in how wide is the universe of journals considered. Moreover, since it is typically less costly for authors to cite superfluous references, whether of their own volition or prompted by editors, than it is to ignore relevant ones, rankings based on citations may be easily manipulated. In contrast, when the merits of publication in one journal or another are debated during hiring, promotion, and salary decisions, the evaluators are choosing over actions with costly consequences. We therefore look to the academic labor market, using data on economists in the University of California system to relate their lifetime publications in 700 different academic journals to salary. We test amongst various sets of journal rankings, and publication discount rates, to see which are most congruent with the returns implied by the academic labor market. (JEL A14, I23, J44)     

THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONTINUOUS CASTING IN THE U. S. STEEL INDUSTRY: COMMENT

In a recent article, Professor Ault has stated that:
studies of the steel industry during the fifties and early sixties have indicated that the major cause of the deterioration of the ability of the U.S. industry to compete was the failure of increases in the productivity of US. steel workers to keep pace with increases in the wages and benefits paid to those workers. One of the principal causes for this lag in productivity was the failure of major U.S. producers to adopt the Basic Oxygen Furnace as rapidly as major foreign producers…despite the fact that the Oxygen converter proved to be capable of producing basic steel products at lower unit cost than any other production technique.     

THE DETERMINANTS AND STRUCTURE OF IMPORT SUBSTITUTION

In Latin America, import substitution is a synonym for industrialization. Influences having an effect on this process range from the capacity to import (a supply influence) to the output-induced demand for import substitutes in production. Relative prices, changed through the exchange rate, may also switch demand from imports to import substitutes. A time-series “test” using measures of these three variables showed that the sectoral capacity to import was the most important determinant of the pattern and variation in Argentine import substitution (1951–65). Left unanswered was the relative influence that world-market conditions, home consumption of exportables, or factor movements to industry may have had on import capacity. With a mean R² of only .42, it is clear that influences other than the three used have played a role in determining Argentine import substitution. Using measures of backward (demanding) and forward (supplying) linkages, we sought to identify “key” import-substitute sectors in the industrialization process. According to Hirschman, if these sectors expand rapidly and bottlenecks are created, greater than “normal” profit opportunities may occur. The result would be that more private savings may be mobilized and investment decisions made more obvious. Although no such key sectors could be identified, this result is partly dependent on the degree of input-output aggregation, which, for Argentine data, is substantial.