A Graphical Tool for Interpreting Regression Coefficients of Trinomial Logit Models

Multinomial logit (also termed multi-logit) models permit the analysis of the statistical relation between a categorical response variable and a set of explicative variables (called covariates or regressors). Although multinomial logit is widely used in both the social and economic sciences, the interpretation of regression coefficients may be tricky, as the effect of covariates on the probability distribution of the response variable is nonconstant and difficult to quantify. The ternary plots illustrated in this article aim at facilitating the interpretation of regression coefficients and permit the effect of covariates (either singularly or jointly considered) on the probability distribution of the dependent variable to be quantified. Ternary plots can be drawn both for ordered and for unordered categorical dependent variables, when the number of possible outcomes equals three (trinomial response variable); these plots allow not only to represent the covariate effects over the whole parameter space of the dependent variable but also to compare the covariate effects of any given individual profile. The method is illustrated and discussed through analysis of a dataset concerning the transition of master’s graduates of the University of Trento (Italy) from university to employment.     

Art, Nationalism and War: Political Futurism in Italy (1909–1944)

Futurism was launched as a revolutionary, iconoclastic movement encompassing the arts, politics and society. It rejected all ties with the past and preached with missionary zeal the advent of a new man and the total reconstruction of society. Despite its powerful impact on Italian politics, the importance of Futurism has scarcely been addressed in the social sciences. Yet, it continues to attract the interest of historians, literary critics and art historians. In fact, the major methodological hindrance for a more articulated research remains the latter's unchallenged hegemony, with their selective propensity to eulogistic accounts. The result is the neglect of Futurism's political dimension as a fully fledged nationalist movement. Aiming to redress this imbalance, the article analyzes Futurist politics through the movement's actions, proclaims and manifestos. It distinguishes early Futurism's anti-establishment ultra-nationalism (1909–1915) from the more institutionalized 'muscular' patriotism adopted after its merger with Fascism (1924–1944). In a global context of mounting nationalist state-building and spiralling inter-state rivalries, Italy's unitary, homogenizing nationalism provided a congenial matrix for the advent of war-mongering patriotism and irredentism. Here, Futurism found an ideal structure of political opportunities, in which it could articulate its unique repertoire of action. The futurists' peculiar talent in 'manufacturing consent' through the media was put to test in their marketing of war as adventurous boundary-building enterprise, a vision subsequently appropriated by Fascism.     

Using the Theory of Planned Behaviour to Understand Motivation to Register Births in Lombok,Indonesia

Despite government interest in promoting birth registration, more than a third of Indonesian children do not have a birth certificate, affecting the realisation of both their human and citizen rights. While barriers to registering children's births in Indonesia have been assessed, there is limited research on how communities perceive the importance of having a birth certificate. This study used focus group discussions to explore parental motivations around birth registration. The results of a thematic analysis found that perceived use of birth certificates, perceived control over the application process and social norms related to certificate ownership affect the intention to apply.     

Are people in the South less intelligent than in the North? IQ and the North–South disparity in Italy

Socioeconomic disparity between North and South Italy has been recently explained by Lynn (2010) as the result of a lower intelligence quotient (IQ) of the Southern population. The present article discusses the procedure followed by Lynn, supplementing his data with new information on school assessments and per head regional income. Genetic North–South differences are then discussed on the basis of the most recent literature on the subject. The results do not confirm the suggested IQ-economy causal link.     

Adapting by calibration the sample size of a phase III trial on the basis of phase II data

The problem of estimating the sample size for a phase III trial on the basis of existing phase II data is considered, where data from phase II cannot be combined with those of the new phase III trial. Focus is on the test for comparing the means of two independent samples. A launching criterion is adopted in order to evaluate the relevance of phase II results: phase III is run if the effect size estimate is higher than a threshold of clinical importance. The variability in sample size estimation is taken into consideration. Then, the frequentist conservative strategies with a fixed amount of conservativeness and Bayesian strategies are compared. A new conservative strategy is introduced and is based on the calibration of the optimal amount of conservativeness – calibrated optimal strategy (COS). To evaluate the results we compute the Overall Power (OP) of the different strategies, as well as the mean and the MSE of sample size estimators. Bayesian strategies have poor characteristics since they show a very high mean and/or MSE of sample size estimators. COS clearly performs better than the other conservative strategies. Indeed, the OP of COS is, on average, the closest to the desired level; it is also the highest. COS sample size is also the closest to the ideal phase III sample size M_I, showing averages and MSEs lower than those of the other strategies. Costs and experimental times are therefore considerably reduced and standardized. However, if the ideal sample size M_I is to be estimated the phase II sample size n should be around the ideal phase III sample size, i.e. n?2M_I/3. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Individual and Contextual Correlates of Economic Difficulties in Old Age in Europe

With data drawn from the second public release version of the “Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe” (SHARE), we scrutinize individual and contextual (regional) correlates of economic difficulties among older Europeans, aged 65 or more. A logistic multi-level regression model with random intercept shows that the risk of being relatively poor varies considerably among the aged. We verified that the factors affecting poverty in each area are not merely the weighted sum of the effect of the more disadvantaged people within the same area, which also exists: poverty appears also significantly influenced by the specific context of residence.     

Internet Poker Websites and Pathological Gambling Prevention Policy

Despite the widespread increase in online poker playing and the risk related to excessive poker playing, research on online poker websites is still lacking with regard to pathological gambling prevention strategies offered by the websites. The aim of the present study was to assess the pathological gambling-related prevention strategies of online poker websites. Two keywords (“poker” and “poker help”) were entered into two popular World Wide Web search engines. The first 20 links related to French and English online poker websites were assessed. Seventy-four websites were assessed with a standardized tool designed to rate sites on the basis of accountability, interactivity, prevention strategies, marketing, and messages related to poker strategies. Prevention strategies appeared to be lacking. Whereas a substantial proportion of the websites offered incitation to gambling such as betting “tips,” few sites offered strategies to prevent or address problem gambling. Furthermore, strategies related to poker, such as probability estimation, were mostly reported without acknowledging their limitations. Results of this study suggest that more adequate prevention strategies for risky gambling should be developed for online poker.     

Determinants of Contraceptive Use in Egypt: A Multilevel Approach

The increasing use of family planning methods seems to be the intermediate determinant which mostly influences the fertility decline in developing countries, and in particular in those countries which are in an advanced phase of demographic transition such as Egypt. Moreover large countries, like Egypt, are characterized by very different geographical realities and even by strong regional heterogeneities. The aim of this study is the analysis of the determinants of contraceptive use in Egypt, with particular reference to the differentials due to the socio-economic context and to the area of residence. To estimate each individual and regional factors’ effect on contraceptive use, a logistic two-level random intercept model is fitted to EDHS 2000 data; the use of a multilevel analysis is suggested by the two-level data structure: the first level units are the women, the second level units are their regions of residence.     

The demographic context of recent change in the structure of American households

This article examines recent changes in the structure of American households within the context of broad population changes. Decreases in married-couple households and increases in single-parent households are almost entirely due to the changing patterns of marriage, divorce, fertility, and child custody; headship rates for families have remained relatively stable. Increases in single-person and other nonfamily households are due to increases in the size of the unmarried, childless population and to the aging of this population. Increasing propensities to live alone or with nonrelatives were observed between 1970 and 1980, but these behavioral changes have abated during the early 1980s.     

Zero variance Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian estimators

Interest is in evaluating, by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, the expected value of a function with respect to a, possibly unnormalized, probability distribution. A general purpose variance reduction technique for the MCMC estimator, based on the zero-variance principle introduced in the physics literature, is proposed. Conditions for asymptotic unbiasedness of the zero-variance estimator are derived. A central limit theorem is also proved under regularity conditions. The potential of the idea is illustrated with real applications to probit, logit and GARCH Bayesian models. For all these models, a central limit theorem and unbiasedness for the zero-variance estimator are proved (see the supplementary material available on-line).