Talking Prose All These Years: Agent‐Based Modeling as Process‐Oriented Analysis

This article considers the implications of an approach to computer simulation called agent‐based modeling for process‐oriented analysis. It argues that many theoretical and methodological debates found in the latter field can be effectively advanced by the former. The argument is presented and then extended using a ubiquitous agent‐based model proposed to improve understanding of ethnic residential segregation. The argument has three strands. The first is that theoretical and methodological debates are unlikely to progress unless they can be “cashed out” empirically. The second is that agent‐based modeling (and its distinctive methodology) has capabilities to do this that existing research methods lack and, in fact, that agent‐based models are a natural way to represent “social process” as apparently conceived by process‐oriented analysis. The third is that possibilities exist for productive synthesis between agent‐based modeling and process‐oriented analysis with the former clarifying, instantiating, and perhaps even testing notions of process developed by the latter.     

Equality Bargaining: Where,Who, Why?

It is common to identify a role for trade unions in combating sex inequality at work through collective bargaining. This article uses a survey of paid union officers to identify the context in which equality bargaining by unions is likely to occur, using the specific issue of bargaining on equal pay. It concludes that equality bargaining is a function of women’s voice within unions, the characteristics and preferences of bargainers themselves and of a favourable public policy environment. Bargaining on equal pay is also more likely in centralized negotiations that cover multiple employers.     

Assessing the Concept of the ‘Insecure‐Other’ Category in the Cassidy–Marvin Scheme: Changes Between 4 and 6 Years in the English and Romanian Adoptee Study

We set out to explore the meaning of the attachment categories in the Cassidy/Marvin strange situation procedure, as employed in the home, using data from a longitudinal study of children adopted into UK families up to the age of 42 months from Romanian institutions, and of adopted children without the experience of institutional care––both groups being assessed at 4 and 6 years of age. Inter‐rater reliability was found to be good. Security (meaning the use of the parent as a secure base and no negative behavior on reunion) was the modal categorical rating in both the institution‐reared and comparison groups, but the category of anomalous non‐normative behavior (meaning a lack of any ordered attachment behavior as covered by the standard ratings), previously labeled ‘insecure‐other’, was more common in the institution‐reared children. Because this was unassociated with the usual manifestations of insecurity (such as avoidance or resistance) and because it was largely evident in interactions with the stranger, it is concluded that the adjective ‘insecure’ was not appropriate. Although this ‘insecure‐other’ category was associated with disinhibited attachment as reported by parents (meaning a lack of differentiation among adults, a willingness to go off with strangers and a lack of checking back with parents in anxiety‐provoking situations), it did not prove to be a good index of disinhibited attachment because changes over time in the ‘insecure‐other’ category were not associated with changes in the rate of disinhibited attachment. Also, whereas the rate of ‘insecure‐other’ fell markedly in the institution‐reared group between 4 and 6 years of age, it rose in the comparison group, raising queries over its meaning.     

Urbanization-related distribution patterns and habitat-use by the marine mesopredator,giant Pacific octopus (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Enteroctopus dofleini</Emphasis>)

Urbanization is a process that heavily alters marine and terrestrial environments, though terrestrial urban ecosystems have been studied far more intensively. Terrestrial studies suggest that urbanization can facilitate mesopredators by enhancing food and shelter resources and reducing predation pressure from apex consumers. This in turn has considerable consequences for ecological communities. We evaluated spatial distribution patterns and habitat-use of the marine mesopredator, giant Pacific octopus (Enteroctopus dofleini), relative to terrestrial urbanization intensity in Puget Sound, Washington, USA. Using field surveys and citizen-contributed data for E. dofleini, we examined whether: (1) Distribution was related to urbanization, (2) Abundance was related to the extent of benthic anthropogenic debris, and (3) Diet differed as a function of urbanization and den cover. Our results suggest that urbanization impacts may differ with depth. Mixed-effects logistic regression model estimates for the probability of occurrence increased with urbanization in deep-water (> 24 m), and decreased with urbanization in shallow water (< 18 m). Accompanying field surveys indicated that E. dofleini abundance was correlated with the number of benthic anthropogenic debris items, and that E. dofleini diets were not affected by urbanization intensity or den cover. Though E. dofleini may be synanthropic within certain urban environments, the mechanisms driving this pattern likely differ from those affecting common urban mesopredators on land, with den provisioning from man-made structures being more important than altered food resources.     

Mlonte Carlo Techniques for Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis in Public Health Risk Assessments

Most public health risk assessments assume and combine a series of average, conservative, and worst-case values to derive a conservative point estimate of risk. This procedure has major limitations. This paper demonstrates a new methodology for extended uncertainty analyses in public health risk assessments using Monte Carlo techniques. The extended method begins as do some conventional methods--with the preparation of a spreadsheet to estimate exposure and risk. This method, however, continues by modeling key inputs as random variables described by probability density functions (PDFs). Overall, the technique provides a quantitative way to estimate the probability distributions for exposure and health risks within the validity of the model used. As an example, this paper presents a simplified case study for children playing in soils contaminated with benzene and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP).     

Palestinian Society

Conclusion Several observations are in order. One is that despite a considerable divergence in the points of view, the authors of the works under review share a single language and methodology, that of the modern social sciences, and a common commitment to understanding Palestinian society. There is a significant overlap of subject matter as well. It is not always possible to infer the personal sympathies of the author from his or her essay.Since the illusion of a Palestinian military threat to Israel has been dispelled, these volumes' lasting contribution is the findings they provide on the political economy of Palestinian society. The Palestinian's future on the West Bank and in Gaza will depend on the differential impact of these territories' incorporation into the Israeli economy on specific groups within the society, as well as by Israeli policies of control, and the will and capacity of the Palestinians to resist them. The work of Tamari, Graham-Brown, Taqqu, Lustick, Migdal, and others contained in the volumes under review here provides a necessary perspective from which to observe events. To the extent that the complex dispute between Israelis and Palestinians turns on the land question, the specific ways in which land is alienated and peasant populations are transformed into workers has a major bearing on ultimate outcomes.Consideration of Palestinian society raises significant theoretical issues. These include the impact upon agricultural societies of their integration into the capitalist world market, the role of the state in the rule of minorities, the study of elite factionalism, and the development of national consciousness. The findings of the works on Palestinian society suggest the following hypotheses: that agricultural populations respond to the market in differential ways, which can work against the emergence of both nationalist and working class consciousness; that the policies adopted by states confronted with highly politicized minorities can have significant impacts; that factionalism is a product of state policy choices (and not foreordained), and that national consciousness does not diminish (and may increase) with economic incorporation. The recent literature on Palestinian society thus has strategic contributions to make to the social sciences.Finally, in studying Palestinian society, we come to grips more directly than we might in a less highly conflicted subject with the problematic epistemological grounds on which the social sciences are erected. Here we can see (somewhat more clearly than normally) the ways in which the questions asked by social scientists derive from their positions in the political and intellectual fields of their societies. This may be a salutary and sobering experience.

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Diesel Engine Exhaust and Lung Cancer Mortality: Time‐Related Factors in Exposure and Risk

To develop a quantitative exposure‐response relationship between concentrations and durations of inhaled diesel engine exhaust (DEE) and increases in lung cancer risks, we examined the role of temporal factors in modifying the estimated effects of exposure to DEE on lung cancer mortality and characterized risk by mine type in the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) cohort, which followed 12,315 workers through December 1997. We analyzed the data using parametric functions based on concepts of multistage carcinogenesis to directly estimate the hazard functions associated with estimated exposure to a surrogate marker of DEE, respirable elemental carbon (REC). The REC‐associated risk of lung cancer mortality in DEMS is driven by increased risk in only one of four mine types (limestone), with statistically significant heterogeneity by mine type and no significant exposure‐response relationship after removal of the limestone mine workers. Temporal factors, such as duration of exposure, play an important role in determining the risk of lung cancer mortality following exposure to REC, and the relative risk declines after exposure to REC stops. There is evidence of effect modification of risk by attained age. The modifying impact of temporal factors and effect modification by age should be addressed in any quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of DEE. Until there is a better understanding of why the risk appears to be confined to a single mine type, data from DEMS cannot reliably be used for QRA.     

The Science of Decision-making: Behaviours Related to Gambling

Abstract

The behaviour analysis of decision-making has studied three realms of behaviour that play a role in gambling: risk taking, behavioural persistence and self-control. Research from our laboratory and others suggests that in all three areas, the manner in which choices are presented to subjects is of central importance. The paper argues that a behavioural perspective may be useful in understanding the factors controlling gambling and compares this perspective with one based on a cognitive orientation.     

Funding large-scale qualitative sociology

Myrna Silverman, Edward Mulvey, and Barry Glassner helped us with thoughtful critiques of earlier drafts.