Globalisierung und die Veränderung sozialer Ungleichheiten in modernen Gesellschaften

This article deals with the effects of globalization on individual life courses and employment careers and the resulting changes in patterns of social inequality in modern societies. Empirically, we draw back to results from the international research project GLOBALIFE which studied the effects of globalization on modern life courses for the first time. The results show that the effects of globalization on individual life courses show marked differentiation with regards to specific life course phases: while especially the employment of mid-career men remained considerably stable under globalization, the careers of young adults, mid-career women as well as late-career workers underwent significant alterations. At the same time, results from the GLOABLIFE study indicate that the changes induced by globalization have not yet led to identical results at the national level. Globalization appears to be differentially filtered by deeply embedded and path-dependent national institutions. These “institutional packages” entail variable forms of labour market “flexibilisation” which themselves differentially shape patterns of social inequality in modern societies: While Scandinavian countries have largely succeeded in limiting an increase in social inequality under globalization through active public welfare engagement, globalization has led to a significant amplification of social inequalities in other regime types, either between labour market insiders and outsiders (in conservative and Southern European countries) or between individuals with different human capital resources (in liberal countries).     

Perception of HIV risk and the quantity and quality of children: the case of rural Malawi

The empirical literature on the impact of HIV on the quality (Q) and quantity (N) of children provides limited and somewhat mixed evidence. This study introduces individual HIV risk perceptions, as a predictor of mortality, into a Q–N investment model. In this model, higher maternal mortality predicts lower N, while higher child mortality predicts lower Q. Thus, the two effects together make likely negative associations between HIV and both Q and N. Based on longitudinal micro-data on mothers and their children in rural Malawi, our results suggest that higher mothers’ reported HIV risk reduces both child quality, as reflected in children’s schooling and health, and child quantity, when the perceived risk is already moderate or high. The effects are sizable and, in the case of Q (schooling and health), are found for children and teenagers, both boys and girls, while in the case of N, they are found for young and mature women.     

Does More Schooling Reduce Hospitalization and Delay Mortality? New Evidence Based on Danish Twins

Schooling generally is positively associated with better health-related outcomes—for example, less hospitalization and later mortality—but these associations do not measure whether schooling causes better health-related outcomes. Schooling may in part be a proxy for unobserved endowments—including family background and genetics—that both are correlated with schooling and have direct causal effects on these outcomes. This study addresses the schooling-health-gradient issue with twins methodology, using rich data from the Danish Twin Registry linked to population-based registries to minimize random and systematic measurement error biases. We find strong, significantly negative associations between schooling and hospitalization and mortality, but generally no causal effects of schooling.     

The Impact of HIV Testing on Subjective Expectations and Risky Behavior in Malawi

We investigate the causal impact of learning HIV status on HIV/AIDS-related expectations and sexual behavior in the medium run. Our analyses document several unexpected results about the effect of learning one's own, or one's spouse's, HIV status. For example, receiving an HIV-negative test result implies higher subjective expectations about being HIV-positive after two years, and individuals tend to have larger prediction errors about their HIV status after learning their HIV status. If individuals in HIV-negative couples also learn the status of their spouse, these effects disappear. In terms of behavioral outcomes, our analyses document that HIV-positive individuals who learned their status reported having fewer partners and using condoms more often than those who did not learn their status. Among married respondents in HIV-negative couples, learning only one's own status increases risky behavior, while learning both statuses decreases risky behavior. In addition, individuals in sero-discordant couples who learned both statuses are more likely to report some condom use. Overall, our analyses suggest that ensuring that each spouse learns the HIV status of the other, either through couple's testing or through spousal communication, may be beneficial in high-prevalence environments.     

Variance effects in the bongaarts-feeney formula

Bongaarts and Feeney have recently proposed an adjusted total fertility rate to disentangle tempo effects from changes in the quantum of fertility. We propose an extension to the Bongaarts and Feeney formula that includes variance effects: that is, changes in the variance of the fertility schedule over time. If these variance effects are ignored, the mean age at birth and the adjusted total fertility rate are biased. We provide approximations for these biases, and we extend the TFR adjustment to fertility schedules with changing variance. We apply our method to the Swedish baby boom and bust, and show that variance effects are important for evaluating the relative contributions of tempo and quantum effects to the fertility change from 1985 to 1995.     

Tempo Effects in the Fertility Decline in Eastern Europe: Evidence from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Russia

A recent formula due to Bongaarts and Feeney allows us todisentangle tempo and quantum effects in changes of the totalfertility rate. This article applies the TFR adjustment toBulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Russia.Substantial differences between the adjusted and the observed TFRindicate important tempo effects in the recent decline offertility. Moreover, these five countries differ in the relativeimportance of tempo versus quantum effects, and in the periodwhen tempo effects are most relevant. We discuss the validity ofthe assumptions that underlie the usage of the formula and wetest whether age-period interactions may invalidate theseassumptions.