Creating a reference to a complex emergency situation using time series methods: war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999

Impacts of complex emergencies or relief interventions have often been evaluated by absolute mortality compared to international standardized mortality rates. A better evaluation would be to compare with local baseline mortality of the affected populations. A projection of population-based survival data into time of emergency or intervention based on information from before the emergency may create a local baseline reference. We find a log-transformed Gaussian time series model where standard errors of the estimated rates are included in the variance to have the best forecasting capacity. However, if time-at-risk during the forecasted period is known then forecasting might be done using a Poisson time series model with overdispersion. Whatever, the standard error of the estimated rates must be included in the variance of the model either in an additive form in a Gaussian model or in a multiplicative form by overdispersion in a Poisson model. Data on which the forecasting is based must be modelled carefully concerning not only calendar-time trends but also periods with excessive frequency of events (epidemics) and seasonal variations to eliminate residual autocorrelation and to make a proper reference for comparison, reflecting changes over time during the emergency. Hence, when modelled properly it is possible to predict a reference to an emergency-affected population based on local conditions. We predicted childhood mortality during the war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999. We found an increased mortality in the first half-year of the war and a mortality corresponding to the expected one in the last half-year of the war.     

Typen religiöser Sozialformen und ihre Bedeutung für die Analyse religiösen Wandels in Deutschland

The article examines different forms of institutionalization of religion in Germany since the 1950s. Going beyond the classical church-sect dichotomy, we discuss in a theoretical part communities, organizations, market relations, movements and events as possible candidates for the structuring of religious communication. In an empirical part, we outline recent changes of social forms in Germany. By addressing divergent trajectories in the major German churches, smaller Christian denominations, immigrant religions and the evolving spectrum of new religiosity, we show that a general trend is not observable. The developments do not prove the often claimed ‘end of religious communities’. It rather seems that modernity produces a variety of religious social forms that seem to balance the tension between communalization (Vergemeinschaftung) and socialization (Vergesellschaftung).     

Intra‐Household Specialization in Housework in the United States and Denmark*

Objective. Focusing on housework activities, we hypothesize that the degree of specialization is influenced by economic notions of efficiency, as well as by time constraints and egalitarian values. Methods. Employing time‐use data on U.S. and Danish couples, we construct a composite index measure of intra‐household specialization. We analyze the comparability of reported time use and our specialization index using different types of data, and then model specialization using a multivariate two‐limit Tobit. Results. We find evidence that Danish households specialize less than U.S. households and that children, particularly preschool‐aged children, are associated with significantly increased specialization in the United States but not in Denmark. Conclusions. We postulate that the more egalitarian social structure in Scandinavia is a driving force behind the lower rate of specialization observed in Denmark. Further, we believe the subsidized child‐care services provided by the Danish welfare system reduce the impact children have on specialization in ordinary housework tasks.     

There's more to the picture than meets the eye: Measuring tangible and intangible capital in two marginal communities in rural Denmark

A missing link in economics has been what Veblen in 1908 termed intangible capital. This includes common norms, trust and high levels of cooperative performance. Intangibles are invisible to the eye and not easily measured in quantitative terms. They nevertheless involve visible, socioeconomic outcomes and should therefore rightly be seen as productive, like tangibles. Thus, uneven levels of intangible capital would explain Differential Economic Performance (DEP) between, say, two firms containing exactly the same stock of physical, economic and human capital. Despite this common sense observation, most economists have failed to see that ‘there's more to the picture than meets the eye’, as Neil Young once sang. We use statistical, historical and fieldwork data from two Danish, marginal rural communities both rich on intangible capital. This to show how intangible capital in the form of social, organisational and cultural capital is accumulated and utilised in situ, at the microlevel. We suggest that the difference between these two, very similar communities should be explained in their varying ability to utilise local stocks of tangible and intangible capital. Drawing on seminal ideas from Bourdieu [The forms of capital. In: Richardson, J.G. (Ed.) Handbook of Theory and Research for the Sociology of Education. Greenwood Press, New York, Westport, CT and London, 1986, pp. 241–58] and the DORA project [Bryden, Differential economic performance in rural areas. In: International Conference on Rural Communities and Identities in the Global Millennium. Malpasino University College, Nainamo, BC, Canada, 2000], we want to develop a ‘total capital’ assessment tool for mapping and measuring socioeconomic development in marginal rural communities. In this way, we hope to count in ‘all’ capital as Schultz [Investment in human capital. In: Kiker, B.F. (Ed.) Investment in Human Capital. Columbia, 1971, pp. 3–21] prophesised. This in order to explain what we term Differential Local Development (DLD), where ‘good’, sustainable development is associated with high economic performance and increase in population.     

Government,Culture and Sustainability in Greenland: A Microstate with a Hinterland

In population terms Greenland is one of the world's smallest states, but it occupies one of the world's largest land masses. It also brings together two very different cultures, those of the indigenous Inuit hunter society and those of the Danish colonial administration. There is now a substantial measure of self-government, building on what this article sees as a surprising measure of common ground between the cultures. Today economics and technology present significant challenges, and the article suggests that the cause of social sustainability will not be well served by giving in to contemporary global pressures.     

Handlungserklärung und die zwei Rationalitäten?

The question is being scrutinized how to integrate into a general theory of action the two types of rational action distinguished by Max Weber based on value rationality and instrumental rationality. Three proposals recently made by Raymond Boudon, Siegwart Lindenberg and Hartmut Esser are considered. These authors agree in conceiving rationality as based on reasons. But, unlike Boudon, Lindenberg and Esser hold that rationality should be essentially considered as consequential and that it is possible to reconstruct value-rational action in this framework, although Weber’s formulation of this type of action clearly excludes a reference to consequences. According to Lindenberg and Esser, this reconstruction of value-rational action can be accomplished by the theory of subjective expected utility supplemented by a concept of framing. In their opinion this kind of model also offers the opportunity to construct a conception superior to a mere typology of action orientations, because it enables us to specify under what conditions which type of action prevails. The article provides evidence that the proposals made by both authors still fall short of offering an adequate model for understanding the difference between both types of action. Lindenberg’s proposal does not sufficiently allow for explaining the difference between traditional and value-rational action and the claim for justification associated with value-rational action. Esser’s conception meets these two criteria but it remains unsettled whether his model already specifies sufficient conditions for value-rational action. The article concludes in considering the general question whether it is conceivable to derive both types of action from a common notion of rationality.