Understanding Cumulative Risk Perception from Judgments and Choices: An Application to Flood Risks

Catastrophic events, such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis, are rare, yet the cumulative risk of each event occurring at least once over an extended time period can be substantial. In this work, we assess the perception of cumulative flood risks, how those perceptions affect the choice of insurance, and whether perceptions and choices are influenced by cumulative risk information. We find that participants' cumulative risk judgments are well represented by a bimodal distribution, with a group that severely underestimates the risk and a group that moderately overestimates it. Individuals who underestimate cumulative risks make more risk‐seeking choices compared to those who overestimate cumulative risks. Providing explicit cumulative risk information for relevant time periods, as opposed to annual probabilities, is an inexpensive and effective way to improve both the perception of cumulative risk and the choices people make to protect against that risk.     

Nondictatorially independent pairs

Suppose that social welfare function f satisfies the Pareto condition and has complete and transitive values. On a domain satisfying the free quadruple property, if the outcome set X has m< outcomes, then the set of pairs of distinct alternatives on which f satisfies both independence and nondictatorship contains at most the fraction 2/m of all pairs. On a domain satisfying the free six-tuple property, if X is a subset of Euclidean space then the set of pairs on which f satisfies both independence and nondictatorship has Lebesgue measure zero.Campbell's research was financed by the National Science Foundation, grant SES 9209039.     

Patterns of pollinator turnover and increasing diversity associated with urban habitats

The role of urban expansion on bee diversity is poorly understood, but it may play an important role in restructuring pollinator diversity observed in rural regions at the urban perimeter. We studied bee communities in two habitats essential for pollinators (residential gardens and semi-natural areas) at 42 sites situated at the edge of greater Montreal, Canada. Bee species richness, abundance and functional diversity all increased with urbanization in both habitat types, but gardens and semi-natural areas supported distinct bee communities with unique responses to urbanization in terms of species turnover. Compared to semi-natural sites, residential gardens supported bees that foraged from a greater number but a lower proportion of available plant species. Bees did not discriminate between exotic and indigenous plant species in either gardens or semi-natural sites and were attracted to flowers in either habitat irrespective of their origins. Protecting semi-natural ruderal areas and providing residential garden habitats for pollinators are both effective means of promoting regional bee diversity in urbanizing regions.     

汉语方言田野调查与音韵学

从高本汉最早的著作开始就把中国音韵学和方言田野调查紧密地结合起来。在中古音的构拟和间接的上古音研究方面,方言资料是相当重要的角色。早期的方言田野调查以字音为主,后来认识到俗传词才是探索方言历史的关键。     

New decimal currencies’ relationships with their predecessors

The choice of the conversion ratio between a newly established decimal currency and its predecessor depends on the perceived importance of ease of conversion, accuracy of conversion, durability, and sentimental attachment, and on the net benefit of dollarisation. Twentieth-century experience shows several types of outcome.