Efficacy Foundations for Risk Communication: How People Think About Reducing the Risks of Climate Change

Believing action to reduce the risks of climate change is both possible (self‐efficacy) and effective (response efficacy) is essential to motivate and sustain risk mitigation efforts, according to current risk communication theory. Although the public recognizes the dangers of climate change, and is deluged with lists of possible mitigative actions, little is known about public efficacy beliefs in the context of climate change. Prior efficacy studies rely on conflicting constructs and measures of efficacy, and links between efficacy and risk management actions are muddled. As a result, much remains to learn about how laypersons think about the ease and effectiveness of potential mitigative actions. To bring clarity and inform risk communication and management efforts, we investigate how people think about efficacy in the context of climate change risk management by analyzing unprompted and prompted beliefs from two national surveys (N = 405, N = 1,820). In general, respondents distinguish little between effective and ineffective climate strategies. While many respondents appreciate that reducing fossil fuel use is an effective risk mitigation strategy, overall assessments reflect persistent misconceptions about climate change causes, and uncertainties about the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. Our findings suggest targeting climate change risk communication and management strategies to (1) address gaps in people's existing mental models of climate action, (2) leverage existing public understanding of both potentially effective mitigation strategies and the collective action dilemma at the heart of climate change action, and (3) take into account ideologically driven reactions to behavior change and government action framed as climate action.     

Properties of the weighted log‐rank test in the design of confirmatory studies with delayed effects

Proportional hazards are a common assumption when designing confirmatory clinical trials in oncology. This assumption not only affects the analysis part but also the sample size calculation. The presence of delayed effects causes a change in the hazard ratio while the trial is ongoing since at the beginning we do not observe any difference between treatment arms, and after some unknown time point, the differences between treatment arms will start to appear. Hence, the proportional hazards assumption no longer holds, and both sample size calculation and analysis methods to be used should be reconsidered. The weighted log‐rank test allows a weighting for early, middle, and late differences through the Fleming and Harrington class of weights and is proven to be more efficient when the proportional hazards assumption does not hold. The Fleming and Harrington class of weights, along with the estimated delay, can be incorporated into the sample size calculation in order to maintain the desired power once the treatment arm differences start to appear. In this article, we explore the impact of delayed effects in group sequential and adaptive group sequential designs and make an empirical evaluation in terms of power and type‐I error rate of the of the weighted log‐rank test in a simulated scenario with fixed values of the Fleming and Harrington class of weights. We also give some practical recommendations regarding which methodology should be used in the presence of delayed effects depending on certain characteristics of the trial.     

Efficacy,Action, and Support for Reducing Climate Change Risks

A growing body of research demonstrates that believing action to reduce the risks of climate change is both possible (self‐efficacy) and effective (response efficacy) is essential to motivate and sustain risk mitigation efforts. Despite this potentially critical role of efficacy beliefs, measures and their use vary wildly in climate change risk perception and communication research, making it hard to compare and learn from efficacy studies. To address this problem and advance our understanding of efficacy beliefs, this article makes three contributions. First, we present a theoretically motivated approach to measuring climate change mitigation efficacy, in light of diverse proposed, perceived, and previously researched strategies. Second, we test this in two national survey samples (Amazon's Mechanical Turk N = 405, GfK Knowledge Panel N = 1,820), demonstrating largely coherent beliefs by level of action and discrimination between types of efficacy. Four additive efficacy scales emerge: personal self‐efficacy, personal response efficacy, government and collective self‐efficacy, and government and collective response efficacy. Third, we employ the resulting efficacy scales in mediation models to test how well efficacy beliefs predict climate change policy support, controlling for specific knowledge, risk perceptions, and ideology, and allowing for mediation by concern. Concern fully mediates the relatively strong effects of perceived risk on policy support, but only partly mediates efficacy beliefs. Stronger government and collective response efficacy beliefs and personal self‐efficacy beliefs are both directly and indirectly associated with greater support for reducing the risks of climate change, even after controlling for ideology and causal beliefs about climate change.     

Wage and Non-Wage Compensation Among Young Alcoholic and Heavy Drinking Women: A Preliminary Analysis

The association between drinking and selected job characteristics among women aged 24 to 31 is examined. Using the 1989 NLSY, women are classified as alcohol abusers or dependent based on DSM-III-R criteria or as heavy drinkers based on reported frequency of six or more drinks. Heavy drinking is negatively associated with wage and non-wage compensation. These effects diminish when human capital measures are controlled. Current alcoholism and current and past heavy drinking are strongly negatively associated with years of schooling. The association between alcoholism and job compensation and characteristics is not as strong as that seen for heavy drinking. It is not known if this is a consequence of errors in identifying alcoholic women in population-based surveys.     

A NOTE ON EVANESCENT PROCESSES

This note examines the connection between μ-invariant measures for the transition function of a continuous-time Markov chain and those of its q-matrix, Q. The major result establishes a necessary and aufficient condition for a convergent μ-invariant measure for Q to be μ-inhant for the minimal transition function, P, under the assumption that P is honest. This corrects Theorem 6 of Vere-Jones (1969) and the first part of Corollary 1 of Pollett (1986), both of which assert that the above conclusion holds in the absence of this condition. The error was pointed out by E.A. van Doom (1991) and the counterexample which be presented provides the basis for the present arguments. In determining where the error occurred in the original proof, we are able to identify a simple sufficient condition for μ-invariance.     

Don't mention Stonehenge!

It rises massive and magnificent above Salisbury Plain. The extraordinary monoliths of Stonehenge leave us as impressed today as ever—and as baffled. Archaeologists argue about how it was made. Can statisticians tell the answer? Chris Jones thinks they can be of considerable assistance.     

Individualisation, choice and structure: a discussion of current trends in sociological analysis

In this paper we seek to explore a tendency in current sociological thought to highlight notions of choice and autonomy in writings about contemporary Western societies. We wish to draw attention to some of the consequences of leaving out discussions of the structural aspects of societies and people's lives, for individuals as well as for the development and application of sociological theory and its ability to understand the connection between history and individual biography. Our discussion is based on qualitative research that we have conducted in recent years, and draws on focus groups with young people in Norway and Britain. From this critique we seek to demonstrate how concepts that take account of context and structure as well individual subjectivities can create a better ‘fit’ with complex and diverse realties.     

Female Victim Perceptions of the Causes of Male Spouse Abuse*

Victims of spouse abuse were interviewed concerning their views of why their husbands were abusive. It was hypothesized that by concentrating on one specific characteristic of this kind previously undocumented patterns of response would be elicited from the subjects. It was concluded that the women's reasons for the violence perpetrated by their spouses serve as justification for the abusers’actions and legitimize maintenance of the relationship.