The impact of sales promotions on store performance: a structural vector autoregressive approach

The present paper analyses the impact of sales promotions on store performance, in the short and long term, from the retailer's point of view. Relationships among promoted and regular sales in the hypermarkets of a large-scale retail chain of national importance, are investigated by means of a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR). Statistically significant effects of sales promotions in the heavy household section on store sales are found in the short-run; these promotions produce additional sales and thus act as an attractive factor. Promotions in textile category, on the contrary, produce an immediate negative effect on net sales. In the long run, negative statistically significant effects on regular sales are detected when promotions are repeatedly implemented within perishables category.     

Microsimulating the Evolution of Italian Pension Benefits: the Role of Retirement Choices and Lowest Pensions Indexing

A few years after the introduction of the Amato and Dini laws, a renewed debate on reforming the Italian pension system and on modifying its structure and technical parameters is taking place. The present work simulates individual reactions to systemic changes, distinguishing among the different typologies of workers the categories of dependent (private and public) and self‐employed ones. This approach allows us to perform a general micro‐analysis of the effects of past reforms on family pension income distribution and average individual pension benefits. Furthermore, it makes it possible to assess the consequences of legislator's choices such as the indexation of the lowest pensions (‘assegni sociali’ and ‘pensioni integrate al minimo’) to wages or to inflation. Finally, a Monte Carlo analysis projects future inequality and poverty trends with a remarkable accuracy and allows to verify the robustness of our results.     

Head Canting in Paintings: An Historical Study

Head canting, a lateral shift of the head toward the shoulder axis, was examined in 1498 figures in the complete works of 11 painters from the XIV to the XX century: Martini, van Eyck Hubert and Jan, Holbein, Carracci, Velazquez, Rembrandt, Degas, Cèzanne, Klimt, and Modigliani. All figures (up to 9 in any one painting) that were not in complete profile and that were not depicted bowing or shifting their bodies were selected for analysis. Our analysis found a higher frequency (49%) of head canting in paintings than previously reported in naturalistic settings. Head canting was significantly higher in female figures than male figures. If a figure's head was facing laterally, head canting was more likely to be to the contralateral side. Head canting was lower in older figures than in children, youths, and adults. The highest level of head canting was seen in religious and mythological figures. Head canting was lower in figures of artists and professionals and virtually absent in depictions of nobles. Figures in pose were depicted with less head canting than those in natural settings. Head canting was lower in figures gazing toward the observer. Single-figure portraits head canted less than subjects in multiple-figure paintings. Author analysis revealed that head canting was pronounced in painters of religious subjects and in modern painters, whereas its degree was reduced in official portrait painters. These results are discussed in terms of dominance theory.     

Public policies on water provision and early childhood education and care (ECEC): do they reduce and redistribute unpaid work?

Governments need to provide public finance to support services to reduce and redistribute unpaid work. However, while the financial costs of the required public investment are up front and highly visible; the (many) benefits are diffuse, spread over time, and include non-monetary as well as monetary benefits. This article focuses on two experiences from developing countries, in the water sector in Tanzania and early education and child care in Mexico and Chile. These experiences provide us with evidence of impact, enabling activists and policymakers to develop analysis to use in advocacy and policy formulation, including the modes of provision that are more likely to ensure equitable outcomes.     

Parameter estimation in the classical occupancy model

Under the classical occupancy model, balls are randomly and independently allocated into cells (by assuming that each arrangement of balls is equally probable) in such a way that the random variable of interest is the empty cell number. In some practical applications the total cell number is known and the target parameter turns out to be the number of balls which is estimated on the basis of the observed empty cell count. For instance, the classical occupancy model is commonly adopted for airborne-microorganism abundance estimation, a topic of central importance in environmental microbiology, in aerobiology and in occupational medicine. The classical occupancy model is also applied to the analysis of US National AIDS surveillance data (which are inflated by duplicate reporting) in order to estimate the true population size of AIDS cases. Since many inaccuracies and misunderstandings are present in applied literature, the aim of the present paper is to introduce a formal analysis of the inferential issues connected with the estimation of the number of balls.     

Empirical investigation about statistical properties of abundance estimates based on line-intercept and network sampling of tracks

Line-intercept sampling (Becker, 1991) and network sampling (Becker et al., 1998) seem to be the most appropriate procedures for estimating animal abundance in a study area on the basis of tracks. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the statistical properties of these alternative procedures by constructing confidence intervals for abundance and comparing the interval performances in terms of width and coverage.     

The Tempered Discrete Linnik distribution

We introduce a new family of integer-valued distributions by considering a tempered version of the Discrete Linnik law. The proposal is actually a generalization of the well-known Poisson–Tweedie law. The suggested family is extremely flexible since it contains a wide spectrum of distributions ranging from light-tailed laws (such as the Binomial) to heavy-tailed laws (such as the Discrete Linnik). The main theoretical features of the Tempered Discrete Linnik distribution are explored by providing a series of identities in law, which describe its genesis in terms of mixture Poisson distribution and compound Negative Binomial distribution—as well as in terms of mixture Poisson–Tweedie distribution. Moreover, we give a manageable expression and a suitable recursive relationship for the corresponding probability function. Finally, an application to scientometric data—which deals with the scientific output of the researchers of the University of Siena—is considered.     

Planned and Unplanned Births and Conceptions in Italy, 1970–1995

Using FFS data on births andofficial data on abortions, focus is firstgiven to trends in planned and unplannedpregnancies during 1970–1995, comparing Italywith the USA and France. The next step is topinpoint groups where unplanned events are morecommon. Finally, the relationship betweenunplanned births and changes in contraceptivebehaviour is examined.The planned fertility decline distinguishesItaly from other Western countries. Unplannedbirths and abortions have also declinedconsiderably during the last twenty years.However, some caution is urged before it may beassumed that Italians are the masters of theirown fertility as, during the first half of1990s, 37% of conceptions were unplanned (atthe moment of the event), reaching 45% amongunder 20 and over 35 years old women.     

A randomized response procedure for multiple-sensitive questions

The Randomized Response (RR) technique is a well-established interview procedure which guarantees privacy protection in social surveys dealing with sensitive items. The RR method assumes a stochastic mechanism to create uncertainty about the true status of the respondents in order to ensure privacy protection and to avoid tendencies to dissimulate or respond in a socially desirable direction. A very general model for the RR method was introduced by Franklin (Commun Stat Theory Methods 18:489?C505, 1989) when a single-sensitive question is under study. However, since social surveys are often based on questionnaires containing more than a single-sensitive question, the analysis of multivariate RR data is of considerable interest. This paper focuses on the generalization of the Franklin model in a multiple-sensitive question setting and on related inferential issues.