A global count of the extreme poor in 2012: data issues,methodology and initial results

The 2014 release of a new set of purchasing power parity (PPP) conversion factors (PPPs) for 2011 has prompted a revision of the World Bank’s international poverty line. In revising the line, we have sought to minimize changes to the real purchasing power of the earlier $1.25 line (in 2005 PPPs), so as to preserve the integrity of the goalposts for international targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the World Bank’s twin goals – which were set with respect to that line. In particular, the new line was obtained by inflating the same fifteen national poverty lines – originally used by Ravallion et al. (World Bank Econ. Rev. 23(2): 163–184 2009) to construct the $1.25 line – to 2011 prices in local currency units, and then converting them to US dollars using 2011 PPP conversion factors. With a small approximation, this procedure yields a new international poverty line of $1.90 per person per day. In combination with other changes described in the paper, this revision leads to relatively small changes in global poverty incidence for 2011: from 14.5 % using the old method to 14.1 % using the new method. In 2012, the new reference year for the global count, we find 12.7 % of the world’s population, or 897 million people, are living in extreme poverty. There are changes in the regional composition of poverty, but they are also relatively small. This paper documents methodological decisions taken in the process of updating both the poverty line and the consumption and income distributions at the country level, including issues of inter-temporal and spatial price adjustments. It also describes various caveats and limitations of the approach taken.     

Involvement in the Juvenile Justice System for African American Adolescents: Examining Associations with Behavioral Health Problems

While researchers have found that African American youth experience higher levels of juvenile justice involvement at every system level (arrest, sentencing, and incarceration) relative to their other ethnic counterparts, few studies have explored how juvenile justice involvement and number of contacts might be correlated with this broad range of problems. A convenience sample of 638 African American adolescents living in predominantly low-income, urban communities participated in a survey related to juvenile justice involvement. Major findings using logistic regression models indicated that adolescents who reported juvenile justice system involvement versus no involvement were 2.3 times as likely to report mental health problems, substance abuse, and delinquent or youth offending behaviors. Additional findings documented that the higher the number of juvenile justice system contacts, the higher the rates of delinquent behaviors, alcohol and marijuana use, sex while high on drugs, and commercial sex. These findings suggest that identifying and targeting youth who have multiple juvenile justice system contacts, especially those in low-resourced communities for early intervention services, may be beneficial. Future research should examine whether peer network norms might mediate the relationships between juvenile justice involvement and youth problem behaviors.     

A multiattribute decision time theory

In this study, we analyze choice in the presence of some conflict that affects the decision time (response time), a subject that has been documented in the literature. We axiomatize a multiattribute decision time (MDT) representation, which is a dynamic extension of the classic multiattribute expected utility theory that allows potentially incomplete preferences. Under this framework, one alternative is preferred to another in a certain period if and only if the weighted sum of the attribute-dependent expected utility induced by the former alternative is larger than that induced by the latter for all attribute weights in a closed and convex set. MDT uniquely determines the decision time as the earliest period at which the ranking between alternatives becomes decisive. The comparative statics result indicates that the decision time provides useful information to locate indifference curves in a specific setting. MDT also explains various empirical findings in economics and other relevant fields.     

Assessing NGO Empowerment in Housing Development Frameworks: Discourse and Practice in the Philippines

Amid the rise of democratization movements since the 1980s, many governments in developing countries have proactively introduced the ideas of decentralization and devolution into the policy arena. In the pursuit of democratic planning processes where civil society is encouraged to be a part of the formal decision-making system, articles advocating the empowerment of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have been included into a series of legislations. This shift was soon reflected in housing development frameworks for the poor, leading to the formulation of a new approach called "enablement." The Philippines' experience for the last two decades follows this line of development. Filipino NGOs are now prescribed as a catalyst to add further dynamism to the improvement of substandard living environments. Empirical findings of this study exemplify that NGO empowerment has been increasingly accelerated by the combination of NGOs' self-endeavors and governments' initiatives. By utilizing the paradigm shift under the enablement approach, NGOs are engaged in the attempt of alliance-formation and network-building to expand their influence. Contrary to ideals, however, NGO empowerment may reveal some adverse effects such as excessive dependency on NGOs and distorted representation by NGOs. Moreover, the professionalization of NGOs is an additional factor which generates hierarchization at the grass-roots level. This study suggests that further research analyze the depth and width to which NGO empowerment has been penetrated in order to precisely capture the processes and consequences resulting in disempowerment.     

A Single Garbage Can Model and the Degree of Anarchy in Japanese Firms

This paper refreshes an empirical examination ofthe garbage can model, particularly in a sample drawnfrom Japanese firms. The garbage can model oforganizational decision making was originally developed by Cohen, March, and Olsen (1972) to describeorganized anarchy. This paper incorporates twomethodologies in an attempt to both validate and extendthe garbage can model: Simulation is first used togenerate a research hypothesis, then several surveys areconducted to test that hypothesis and to empiricallydevelop an ex-post model of decision ambiguity, flight,and anarchy. The data support our hypothesis and we find out new conditions of ambiguity:(i) fluid participation, (ii) divorce of solution fromdiscussion, and (iii) job performance rather thansubjective assessments, which are clearly related to the simulation assumption of our single garbagecan model. By using our new conditions of ambiguity, wedevelop a measure of degree of anarchy, and theregression analysis indicates a linear relationship between the flight ratio and the degree ofanarchy.     

Asymptotic expansions in non-linear renewal theory

We obtain first order asymptotic expansions for the distribution of the excess of a standard normal random walk over a curved boundary and the error probabilities of some repeated significance tests. The key step in the analysis is an asymptotic expansion for the conditional probability that the random walk has not crossed the boundary before the N step, given that it is near the boundary after the n^th step.     

Gender gaps in STEM in Japanese academia: The impact of research productivity,outside offers,and home life on pay

To understand differences in labor market outcomes between genders, economists must examine a complex array of potentially significant factors, such as institutional context, productivity differences, child-bearing and home production, and bargaining behavior. Many of these factors are not well captured by standard data sources. We use a new survey of academics in Japan to better understand the sources of gender pay differences. We find a 6% pay gap which persists when we control for research productivity, despite an institutional context shaped by explicit salary tables. We do not find a motherhood wage penalty, and the gender salary we document is not affected by differences in outside job offers.     

Fetal movement frequency and the effect of associated perinatal factors: Multicenter study

Background

Decreased fetal movements are associated with adverse perinatal outcomes, including stillbirth. Delayed maternal visits to a health care provider after perceiving decreased fetal movements are frequently observed in stillbirths. Informing pregnant women of the normal range of fetal movement frequency is essential in their earlier visits in order to prevent stillbirth.

孙中山与德国——兼论"中德苏联盟"的构想

1917年参战纠纷发生以后,孙中山就一直坚持接近德国的政策,这种政策是出于战略的考虑,因为孙中山希望得到德国的政治、军事和技术援助;巴黎和会以后,孙中山的亲德政策与亲苏政策相联结,形成了"中德苏联盟"的构想,亲德和亲苏政策是一体推进的,其政策来源于孙中山的"大亚洲主义";孙中山认为受凡尔赛—华盛顿体系压迫的民族应该通过中德苏三国联合来抵抗英美强权,孙中山的思想成为后来中国国民党联俄政策和聘请德国军事顾问团的基础;尽管孙中山及其广州政府并没有与德国建立正式的外交关系,其联俄政策也因为他的逝世而最终放弃,但在整个20世纪30-40年代,这种中德苏合作的政策总是时隐时现地贯穿于中国政治家的认识中。