Emigration dynamics of eastern African countries

This examination of emigration dynamics focuses on 13 countries extending from Eritrea to Zimbabwe and Mozambique on the eastern African mainland and on 5 Indian Ocean island nations. The first part of the study looks at the temporal, spatial, and structural perspectives of emigration dynamics. Part 2 considers international migration in the region according to Appleyard's typology (permanent settlers, labor migration, refugees, and illegal migrants) with the additional category of return migration. Measurement issues in emigration dynamics are discussed in part 3, and the demographic/economic setting is the topic of part 4. The demographic factors emphasized include spatial distribution, population density, population structure, population dynamics, demographic transition, and the relationship between internal and international migration. Other major topics of this section of the study are the economic base, the human resource base, population and natural resources, the sociocultural context (emigration, chain migration, return migration, and migration linkages and networks), political factors (including human rights, minority rights and security, regional integration and economic cooperation, and the impact of structural adjustment programs), and a prediction of future emigration dynamics. It is concluded that refugee flows remain a major factor in eastern African countries but the development of human resources in the northern portion of the region indicates development of potential labor migration from this area. Data constraints have limited measurement of emigration in this region and may contribute to the seeming indifference of most eastern African countries to emigration policies. Emigration in this region has been triggered by deteriorating economic and political conditions and is expected to increase.     

International migration and sustainable human development in eastern and southern Africa

International migration in eastern and southern Africa (ESA) is rarely addressed in population and development policies or regional organizations, and regional organizations must in the articulation of sustainable shared development identify the role of international migration. Poor quality data on international migration hampers analysis. Sustainable, shared, and human development within the region are subregional issues. Permanent migration is characterized among ESA countries as increasing demographic ethnic pluralism that may result in redrawing of territorial boundaries and further population movement. Portuguese and Arab settlement and integration in eastern areas resulted in coexistence, while European immigration to South Africa resulted in racial segregation. Modern colonial settlement and the aftermath of political conflict resulted in independent countries after the 1960s and outmigration of nonAfrican groups. Much of the labor migration in ESA is unskilled workers moving to South African mining regions. Labor migration to Zimbabwe and Zambia declined after the 1960s. The formation of the Common Market for ESA and the potential merger with the Preferential Trade Area and South African Development Community is a key approach to integration of migration into regional cooperation and shared development. Refugee movements create the most problems. Prior to 1992 ESA countries accounted for 83.4% of refugees, particularly in Mozambique, Ethiopia, and Somalia. Some countries blame poor economic performance on the deluge of refugees. Illegal migration is currently detected because of the required work permits, but the adoption of the Common Market would obscure this phenomenon. Human development is affected most by migrations related to drought, labor migration to strong economic areas, and return migration. The Inter-Governmental Authority on Drought and Development needs to become more active and establish better policies on nomadic and refugee movements and displaced populations. Movement of educated populations to countries lacking in trained and skilled human resources is a future challenge. Strategies of immigration should facilitate economic development.     

Reaching out to Aggressive Children

Correspondence to Jo Carroll, 3 Barrow Close, Marlborough, Wiltshire SN8 2BD. Summary Social workers are increasingly being asked to offer therapeutichelp to young children who are persistently aggressive and defiant.The difficulties of working with such children, who appear toreject all efforts to help them, are recognized, and some guidanceis offered as to the timing of such work. Directive techniquesoften fail, as the children refuse to participate in any jointactivity. The value of non-directive play therapy as an approachto these children is outlined, and the practicalities of thistechnique are considered. Finally, a case study illustratesthe value of a non-directive approach with a particularly challengingchild.     

Computer-based scheduling of technical resources

This paper considers the design of a Scheduling Sub-System which could be attached to an existing computerised data processing system in order to enhance its overall operation. It draws heavily on the experience of the authors in designing a system to assist in the scheduling of video tape machines within BBC Television.     

Approximate Bayesian Inference in Spatial Generalized Linear Mixed Models

Abstract.  In this paper we propose fast approximate methods for computing posterior marginals in spatial generalized linear mixed models. We consider the common geostatistical case with a high dimensional latent spatial variable and observations at known registration sites. The methods of inference are deterministic, using no simulation-based inference. The first proposed approximation is fast to compute and is 'practically sufficient', meaning that results do not show any bias or dispersion effects that might affect decision making. Our second approximation, an improvement of the first version, is 'practically exact', meaning that one would have to run MCMC simulations for very much longer than is typically done to detect any indication of error in the approximate results. For small-count data the approximations are slightly worse, but still very accurate. Our methods are limited to likelihood functions that give unimodal full conditionals for the latent variable. The methods help to expand the future scope of non-Gaussian geostatistical models as illustrated by applications of model choice, outlier detection and sampling design. The approximations take seconds or minutes of CPU time, in sharp contrast to overnight MCMC runs for solving such problems.     

FINANCIAL MARKET VARIABLES DO NOT PREDICT REAL ACTIVITY

The past decade has seen an extensive empirical reassessment of the information content of financial market variables sensitive to monetary policy. Particularly provocative are recent papers suggesting that some interest rates and interest rate spreads contain more information about economic activity than monetary aggregates. This paper reviews important methodological pitfalls in these studies. We then show that none of the commonly employed measures of monetary policy contain incremental information useful in forecasting real economic activity. Two conclusions are possible. Either monetary policy innovations have no significant real effects, or we (collectively) have failed in our efforts to measure monetary policy. ( JEL E52)     

Towards migration research networking in Eastern-Southern African subregions

This article reports efforts made by a small group of Eastern-Southern African (ESA) subregion scholars to adopt a systematic approach to establishing a regional network Migration Network in Eastern and Southern Africa (MINESA). The approach involved: 1) holding a conference at which symptomatic types of internal and international migration would be discussed; 2) publication of the conference proceedings; and 3) establishment of MINESA as a network of policy-oriented research in the two subregions. The first stage has been accomplished, the second is nearly complete, and the third has yet to be undertaken. During the African Population Conference organized by the International Union for Scientific Study of Population in Dakar, Senegal, on 5-9 November 1988, a small group agreed on a timetable to establish MINESA. At the ESA conference, papers were presented on ESA issues; internal migration processes and mechanism; refugee movements and their implications for countries; the effects on the economies of Southern African states, of emigration to the Republic of South Africa (RSA). In a keynote address, Adepoju surveyed migration and development in Western-Central (Middle) Africa and Eastern-Southern Africa, which included colonial and post-colonial historical epochs, internal and international migration, and labor and refugee movements. A paper on Kenya by Oucho discussed the implications for rural-urban balance of internal migration based on 1969 and 1979 censuses. Rural-urban migration from the traditional economy to Nairobi and Mombasa in particular has created an unacceptable rural-urban imbalance, adversely affecting rural development. Eastern and Southern Africa has seen massive and wide spatial dispersal of refugees (victims of wars, drought, and famine). Two papers were presented on Tanzania and one on Uganda. The final set of papers addressed the effects of labor migration to the RSA on Swaziland and Lesotho.     

PRICE PREDICTION ERRORS AND REAL ACTIVITY: A REASSESSMENT

Rational expectations, natural-rate macro-models in which aggregate demand disturbances affect the real sector through price prediction errors, while powerful and tractable analytical tools, are often perceived to be of questionable empirical relevance. This paper reexamines the empirical role of price prediction errors in determining the level of real aggregate activity. The approach is distinguished by accounting for aggregate supply-side disturbances and by more careful treatment of natural rates. Contrary to some previous studies, we find considerable empirical support for the hypothesis that demand-driven price level surprises are positively and significantly correlated with aggregate real economic activity.