Socio-political forecasting and management information systems

This paper is an attempt to place the forecasting of socio-political variables in the context of actual information needs of industrial companies. Initially discussion is of the effect of socio-political variables upon companies with a review of this significance for decision makers and decision takers. An attempt is then made to categorise existing forecasting techniques in the context of socio-political data whilst regard is paid to the possible effects of socio-political variables on companies. Discussion is then broadened to a consideration of current practice both in the UK and in the USA. Problems implicit in current practice are commented upon and the paper ends with the conclusion that socio-political forecasting is currently significant to many companies and that there is a major potential role for management scientists to play in the development and implementation of appropriate techniques.     

Fossil fuel supplies simulation 1972–1979

Fossil fuels are an important source of energy for Ontario Hydro and purchases exceed $100 million per year. This paper describes a computer simulation of the inventory situation over an eight-year period, which is being used to assess the relationship between order flexibility and the target carry-over stocks at the beginning of each shipping season. A simple way of presenting the results for management evaluation is illustrated. Variations of the model are used to assess random influences, such as strikes, and to determine the economic balance between holding costs and stock-outs.     

The application of microcomputers in production management

The findings reported result from a questionnaire survey, and a number of company interviews. Further questions which need to be answered are identified, and a research project to provide these answers is outlined.     

A model of completed length of service

The measurement of labour turnover is important both because high turnover is regarded as a sign that something is wrong in a firm and also because quantitative information is important in planning recruitment programmes. This paper describes a statistical technique which has proved useful for the measurement and prediction of turnover.     

An overview and critique of the experience corps for independent living initiative

This article presents findings of the evaluation of the Experience Corps for Independent Living (ECIL) initiative. The ECIL initiative was a two-year demonstration program designed to test innovative ways to use the experience, time, and resources of volunteers over 55 to expand significantly the size and scope of volunteer efforts on behalf of independent living services for frail older people and their caregivers in specific communities. Six demonstration projects were selected to participate in this initiative. The intensive volunteers, the critical component of the program, were more highly skilled than typical volunteers from existing senior volunteer programs. ECIL volunteers collaborated with agency partners to develop new programs, supervise direct service activities, and enhance the performance of the agencies being served. Although the projects addressed many of the goals of the initiative, they did not fully accomplish all of their objectives. The ECIL initiative was particularly successful in providing independent living services to frail elders and their families in the communities served. It was less successful in developing and maintaining the team and corps concept, in attracting and retaining the anticipated numbers of volunteers during the study period, and in becoming self-sufficient by the end of Year Three.     

Methods for testing subblock patterns

A number of statistical tests have been recommended over the last twenty years for assessing the randomness of long binary strings used in cryptographic algorithms. Several of these tests include methods of examining subblock patterns. These tests are the uniformity test, the universal test and the repetition test. The effectiveness of these tests are compared based on the subblock length, the limitations on data requirements, and on their power in detecting deviations from randomness. Due to the complexity of the test statistics, the power functions are estimated by simulation methods. The results show that for small subblocks the uniformity test is more powerful than the universal test, and that there is some doubt about the parameters of the hypothesised distribution for the universal test statistic. For larger subblocks the results show that the repetition test is the most effective test, since it requires far less data than either of the other two tests and is an efficient test in detecting deviations from randomness in binary strings.     

Toward a culturally sensitive child sexual abuse prevention program for latinos

A culturally sensitive sexual abuse prevention program for Latinos is proposed which makes recommendations regarding style of interaction, discussion topics of importance, and other areas which need he considered in the design and implementation of such a program. The role of the child, parents, professionals, and others involved is discussed.