Incorporating husband-wife differences in place utility differentials into migration decision models

This paper extends the micro-level empirical literature on migration decision making by investigating the manner in which husbands' and wives' subjective place utility expectations jointly feed into migration decisions in a low-income country. The authors use expectational data relating to four place utility dimensions and stated migration intentions of 376 village-resident Egyptian couples to test alternative decision models. An ordinal probit estimation technique is employed. The results of the analyses support the hypothesis of husband dominance in migration decisions in this context. The authors conclude with a discussion of the implications of the paper for further theoretical refinement and for migration survey design in this and other developing countries.Dr. McDevitt is a Research Associate of the Carolina Population Center, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Dr. Gadalla, former Director of The Social Research Center of The American University in Cairo, is currently Visiting Distinguished Professor of Sociology-Demography, San Diego State University, San Diego.This is a revised version of a paper presented at the 1984 annual meetings of the Population Association of America and cited throughout as McDevitt and Gadalla (1984). The authors wish to acknowledge helpful discussions with Amos Hawley in the early stages of the development of the paper and the guidance of David Guilkey and Larry Taylor with the statistical techniques employed in the work reported in the paper. The research was supported in part by grants 1-R01-HD14943 and 1-T32-HD07168 from the National Institutes of Health.     

Composite screener for androgen deficiency related to the aging males’ symptoms scale

Objective.?Methodological characteristics of the Aging Males’ Symptoms (AMS) scale point towards a high standard measurement and comparison of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) over time or intervention. However, the scale was neither developed nor standardized as a screening instrument for androgen deficiency.

Methods.?Data of the Austrian ANDROX study suggested to develop a composite screener for androgen deficiency based on AMS, age, and BMI, to determine sensitivity and specificity to detect low total testosterone (TT) levels. The findings were compared with those of an independent sample of urological patients with suspicion of androgen deficiency (AD) from Germany (n = 803).

Results.?A graphical solution for a composite-screening tool was proposed, with three levels of suspicion for AD: positive screening result (high suspicion), equivocal result, and negative screening result (no suspicion, AD unlikely). The percentage of TT values < 4 ng/ml were 18.7%, 40.7% and 58.8% in the three categories: negative, equivocal and positive, respectively. The findings were confirmed in the independent German sample. In both instances, neither sensitivity nor specificity was very high, i.e., between about 50% and 75%.

Conclusion.?The results of the development and initial validation of the new screener are promising. Further information, and experience from the practice, is needed to confirm or refute the hypothesis that this screener is a useful tool for medical practice.     

Drivers' safety needs, behavioural adaptations and acceptance of new driving support systems

The aim of this paper is to discuss the contribution of two complementary approaches for designing and evaluating new driver support systems likely to improve the operation and safety of the road traffic system. The first approach is based on detailed analyses of traffic crashes so as to estimate drivers' needs for assistance and the situational constraints that safety functions should address to be efficient. The second approach is based on in depth-analyses of behavioral adaptations induced by the usage of new driver support systems in regular driving situations and on drivers' acceptance of the assistance provided by the systems.     

Causes of death to women of reproductive age in two developing countries

Data on cause of death are deficient for most developing countries. Nevertheless, it is important for policy makers to have access to such information to plan the use of resources and to evaluate health programs. In this study, deaths among women of reproductive age (15 to 49) in two areas in developing countries were located, and family members were interviewed. Local physicians reviewed the completed interviews and determined the cause of death.Complications of pregnancy and childbirth were the cause of 23% of the deaths in Menoufia, Egypt and Bali, Indonesia. In Egypt, the first cause of death was circulatory system disease (28%), followed by complications of pregnancy and childbirth (23%), and trauma (14%, primarily burns). In Indonesia, complications of pregnancy and childbirth was the first cause of death, followed by infectious disease (22%, primarily tuberculosis), and circulatory system disease (13%).Although the method of data collection was unorthodox, findings for Menoufia are comparable to data from other sources for the country as a whole. There are few data with which to compare our findings for Bali, but their similarity to the data from the Egyptian study lends credence to their quality.     

Distribution-Free Quality Control Charts Based on Signed-Rank-Like Statistics

In this article we propose three distribution-free (or nonparametric) statistical quality control charts for monitoring a process center when an in-control target center is not specified. These charts are of the Shewhart-type, the exponentially moving average-type, and the cumulative sum-type. The constructions of the proposed charts require the availability of an initial reference sample taken when the process was operating in-control to calculate an estimator for the unknown in-control target process center. This estimated center is then used in the calculation of signed-rank-like statistics based on grouped observations taken periodically from the process output. As long as the in-control process underlying distribution is continuous and symmetric, the proposed charts have a constant in-control average run length and a constant false alarm rate irrespective of the process underlying distribution. Other advantages of the proposed distribution-free charts include their robustness against outliers and their superior efficiency over the traditional normal-based control charts when applied to processes with moderate- or heavy-tailed underlying distributions, such as the double exponential or the Cauchy distributions.     

Managing Disruption Risks in Supply Chains

There are two broad categories of risk affecting supply chain design and management: (1) risks arising from the problems of coordinating supply and demand, and (2) risks arising from disruptions to normal activities. This paper is concerned with the second category of risks, which may arise from natural disasters, from strikes and economic disruptions, and from acts of purposeful agents, including terrorists. The paper provides a conceptual framework that reflects the joint activities of risk assessment and risk mitigation that are fundamental to disruption risk management in supply chains. We then consider empirical results from a rich data set covering the period 1995–2000 on accidents in the U. S. Chemical Industry. Based on these results and other literature, we discuss the implications for the design of management systems intended to cope with supply chain disruption risks.     

Stratification and mobility in contemporary Egypt

The objectives in this statement are to characterize and explain the patterns of change in stratification and mobility in Egypt, over the last half century, by placing them within conceptual, explanatory, and historical contexts. First, literature relevant to the primary concepts of "class" and "status", is reviewed. Second, four institutions whose influence is fundamental in shaping these patterns are identified to form an explanatory context: family, polity, economy, and education. And third, an historical account is presented to demonstrate the interplay of these institutions and their consequences for stratification and mobility. For this, four periods are identified that are marked by change in the dominance of institutions and their corresponding influence on stratification and mobility. In addition to data available in relevant literature, this analysis utilizes primary data generated through a national probability household survey.     

Association between serum levels of testosterone and biomarkers of subclinical atherosclerosis

Objective: To investigate the association between serum levels of testosterone and biomarkers of subclinical atherosclerosis based on data from 119 middle-aged men of the general population.

Methods: Testosterone, Apolipoprotein A-1 (ApoA-1), Apolipoprotein B (ApoB), Apolipoprotein B-to-Apolipoprotein A-1 ratio (ApoB-to-ApoA-1), high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP), and fibrinogen levels were measured. Data were also gathered based on age, BMI, waist circumference, smoking, alcohol consumption, and family history of cardiovascular diseases. Men were classified into two groups based on testosterone levels: hypogonadal (testosterone ≤12?nmol/L) and eugonadal men (testosterone >12?nmol/L).

Results: When compared to eugonadal, the hypogonadal men were significantly older (56?years vs. 55?years, p?=?.03), had greater BMI (28?kg/cm² vs. 26?kg/cm², p?=?.01), and higher waist circumference (104?cm vs. 100?cm, p?=?.01). Moreover, ApoB, ApoB-to-ApoA-1 ratio, and hsCRP were significantly higher in hypogonadal men compared to eugonadal men (1.1?g/L vs. 1.0?g/L, p?=?.03), (0.8 vs. 0.7, p?=?.03), (3.3?mg/L vs. 2.0?mg/L, p?=?.01), respectively. On the other hand, ApoA-1 and fibrinogen levels did not differ significantly between groups (p?>?.05). In an adjusted multivariate regression analysis model, only ApoB showed a significant negative association with testosterone levels (β?=??0.01; 95% CI?=??0.02, ?1.50; p?=?.04).

Conclusion: Testosterone levels showed an inverse relation to ApoB, a biomarker implicated in subclinical atherosclerosis. These findings support the hypothesis that low testosterone levels play a role in atherosclerosis.     

A subset selection procedure for multinomial distributions

A subset selection procedure is developed for selecting a subset containing the multinomial population that has the highest value of a certain linear combination of the multinomial cell probabilities; such population is called the ‘best’. The multivariate normal large sample approximation to the multinomial distribution is used to derive expressions for the probability of a correct selection, and for the threshold constant involved in the procedure. The procedure guarantees that the probability of a correct selection is at least at a pre-assigned level. The proposed procedure is an extension of Gupta and Sobel's [14] selection procedure for binomials and of Bakir's [2] restrictive selection procedure for multinomials. One illustration of the procedure concerns population income mobility in four countries: Peru, Russia, South Africa and the USA. Analysis indicates that Russia and Peru fall in the selected subset containing the best population with respect to income mobility from poverty to a higher-income status. The procedure is also applied to data concerning grade distribution for students in a certain freshman class.     

Using Prior Risk‐Related Knowledge to Support Risk Management Decisions: Lessons Learnt from a Tunneling Project

The authors of this article have developed six probabilistic causal models for critical risks in tunnel works. The details of the models' development and evaluation were reported in two earlier publications of this journal. Accordingly, as a remaining step, this article is focused on the investigation into the use of these models in a real case study project. The use of the models is challenging given the need to provide information on risks that usually are both project and context dependent. The latter is of particular concern in underground construction projects. Tunnel risks are the consequences of interactions between site‐ and project‐ specific factors. Large variations and uncertainties in ground conditions as well as project singularities give rise to particular risk factors with very specific impacts. These circumstances mean that existing risk information, gathered from previous projects, is extremely difficult to use in other projects. This article considers these issues and addresses the extent to which prior risk‐related knowledge, in the form of causal models, as the models developed for the investigation, can be used to provide useful risk information for the case study project. The identification and characterization of the causes and conditions that lead to failures and their interactions as well as their associated probabilistic information is assumed to be risk‐related knowledge in this article. It is shown that, irrespective of existing constraints on using information and knowledge from past experiences, construction risk‐related knowledge can be transferred and used from project to project in the form of comprehensive models based on probabilistic‐causal relationships. The article also shows that the developed models provide guidance as to the use of specific remedial measures by means of the identification of critical risk factors, and therefore they support risk management decisions. Similarly, a number of limitations of the models are discussed.