Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework

Drawing on relevant literature from a diverse range of academic disciplines we present a conceptual framework intended to further our understanding of perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation. Based on this framework, we provide a detailed review of the literature and an analysis of open issues in current research. The review is primarily concerned with individuals’ perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation, which can influence individuals’ economic behaviour (e.g. spending and saving decisions). The main insight from the review is that while consumers may have a limited ability to store and recall specific prices, and even succumb to a number of biases in the way in which they form perceptions and expectations of global price changes, they do seem to have some feel for, and ability to judge and forecast, inflation. How they achieve this, however, is still an open question, although plausible explanations have been proposed. While much important research has been undertaken and significant progress made in our understanding of the psychology of inflation, there remain many unanswered questions and interesting avenues for future research, which are discussed in the final part of the paper.     

Integrated services in Australian early childhood education and care: what can we learn from our past?

Recent Australian interest in the integration of early childhood services is largely informed by international research and policy developments, particularly from the United Kingdom. Service integration is widely recognised as an effective means of holistically meeting the needs of children and families and ameliorating disadvantage. What is less well known is that Australia has a history of integrated early childhood services. This paper focuses on three points in 20th century Australia when advocacy for integrated early childhood service provision was evident: post‐World War I when the first Mother and Baby Welfare Clinic was established; during the late 1930s to mid 1940s with the advent of the Lady Gowrie Centres; and in the 1970s when several reports recommended the integration and co‐ordination of early years services. Attending to this history acknowledges this innovative Australian work, and provides potentially valuable, and somewhat cautionary, lessons for contemporary advocacy for integrated early childhood services.     

Reversals of preference between compound and simple risks: The role of editing heuristics

A reversal of preference between compound and simple risks was demonstrated in the context of compound gambles with loss elements transparently in common. The role of predecision editing heuristics in this violation of the Invariance Principle was explored in a process-tracing study. Verbal reports showed thatcancellation-by-similarity andamalgamation heuristics were differentially applied to simple and compound risks depending on their similarity structure. It was argued that such heuristics are often useful in simplifying complex choice problems without loss of important information. However, the inappropriate cancellation of elements of compound risks can be maladaptive, and can contribute to a lack of insight into the true nature of these risks.     

An omnibus test of goodness-of-fit for conditional distributions with applications to regression models

We introduce an omnibus goodness-of-fit test for statistical models for the conditional distribution of a random variable. In particular, this test is useful for assessing whether a regression model fits a data set on all its assumptions. The test is based on a generalization of the Cramér–von Mises statistic and involves a local polynomial estimator of the conditional distribution function. First, the uniform almost sure consistency of this estimator is established. Then, the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is derived under the null hypothesis and under contiguous alternatives. The extension to the case where unknown parameters appear in the model is developed. A simulation study shows that the test has good power against some common departures encountered in regression models. Moreover, its power is comparable to that of other nonparametric tests designed to examine only specific departures.     

Understanding and knowledge of credit cost and duration: Effects on credit judgements and decisions

Financial capability requires understanding measures of consumer credit cost and using them appropriately in credit judgements and decisions. In three studies, UK adults’ understanding and use of credit cost and duration information were investigated from a bounded rationality perspective. Study 1, part of a representative survey of UK adults (N = 1000), found that when presented with annual percentage rate (APR) participants significantly overestimated the total cost (TC) of a 12-month loan. In Study 2, loan duration and APR were varied in an independent groups experiment (N = 242). Bank customers’ TC estimates were sensitive to both loan duration and APR but TC was again substantially overestimated. Study 3 was an independent groups experiment investigating the effect of APR and TC information on credit decisions (N = 241). APR often influenced decisions between loans varying in duration and monthly repayment, but this effect was moderated by TC information. It was concluded that: (1) people generally misunderstand the relation between APR and TC; and (2) although APR information can have a large effect on credit decisions, its effect is either attenuated or amplified by TC information. The findings are interpreted in terms of a ‘take the best APR’ heuristic and a dual mental account model of instalment credit. Recommendations for improving credit information provision and financial education are offered.     

Tales from the frontline: The experiences of early childhood practitioners working with an ‘embedded’ research team

In late 2006, SDN Children’s Services, an Australian not-for-profit provider of services for children, families and communities, engaged a research team that was ‘embedded’ within the organisation for 1 year. This action represented a significant investment of resources, such as staff time and organisational funds, and demonstrates SDN’s strong commitment to research and evaluation as a means of supporting organisational learning and development. This paper highlights the innovative nature of the approach by positioning the role of the embedded researcher within the current theoretical and socio-political context. It also provides evidence of the success of the approach by reporting on the findings of a study that investigated staff’s experiences of being involved in this type of collaborative investigation of their work. I argue that the employment of an embedded researcher can have positive benefits both for the organisation and the practitioners—but who the researchers are really matters.