A modified common factor model for modelling mortality jointly for both sexes

Journal of Population Research - There is an increasing attention on the joint modelling of multiple populations. Populations are related in several ways, such as neighbouring countries, females...     

A simple procedure for the selection of significant effects

Summary.  Given a large number of test statistics, a small proportion of which represent departures from the relevant null hypothesis, a simple rule is given for choosing those statistics that are indicative of departure. It is based on fitting by moments a mixture model to the set of test statistics and then deriving an estimated likelihood ratio. Simulation suggests that the procedure has good properties when the departure from an overall null hypothesis is not too small.     

Robustness of testing the equality of two slopes in simple linear structural relationships

The usual test of the equality of two slopes in a simple structural relation-ship is the test formed from the normal approximation using the Fisher information matrix, assuming two explanatory variables are independent. This paper examines the robustness if the explanatory variables are, in fact, dependent. A more efficient estimator is derived for a matched pair situation.     

Portmanteau test for conditional heteroscedasticity, using ranks of squared residuals

Squared residual autocorrelations have been found useful in detecting departures from linearity in time series models. This is especially the case with data exhibiting heterogeneity in variances. A rank test is proposed which is much more robust than its parametric counterpart.     

THEORIES OF RISK: TESTING INVESTOR BEHAVIOR ON THE TAIWAN STOCK AND STOCK INDEX FUTURES MARKETS

This article considers four utility functions—concave, convex, S‐shaped, and reverse S‐shaped—to analyze the behavior of different types of investors on the Taiwan stock index and its corresponding index futures. Using stochastic dominance (SD) rules, we show that the existence of all four investor types is plausible. Risk averters prefer spot to futures, whereas risk seekers prefer futures to spot. Investors with S‐shaped utility functions prefer spot (futures) to futures (spot) when markets move upward (downward). Investors with reverse S‐shaped utility functions prefer futures (spot) to spot (futures) when markets move upward (downward). We show that both spot and futures markets can exist when only risk averters are present, but futures can dominate spot only if there is some risk‐seeking behavior. These results are robust with respect to subperiods, spot returns including dividends, and diversification. (JEL C14, G12, G15)     

Predictors of Treatment Outcome Among Asian Pathological Gamblers (PGs): Clinical,Behavioural, Demographic,and Treatment Process Factors

Research on predictors of treatment outcome among pathological gamblers (PGs) is inconclusive and dominated by studies from Western countries. Using a prospective longitudinal design, the current study examined demographic, clinical, behavioural and treatment programme predictors of gambling frequency at 3, 6 and 12-months, among PGs treated at an addiction clinic in Singapore. Measures included the Hospital anxiety and depression scale, gambling symptom assessment scale (GSAS), personal well-being index (PWI), treatment perception questionnaire and gambling readiness to change scale. Treatment response in relation to changes in symptom severity, personal wellbeing and abstinence were also assessed. Abstinence rates were 38.6, 46.0 and 44.4 % at 3, 6 and 12-months respectively. Significant reductions in gambling frequency, GSAS, and improvement in PWI were reported between baseline and subsequent outcome assessments, with the greatest change occurring in the initial three months. No demographic, clinical, behavioural or treatment programme variable consistently predicted outcome at all three assessments, though treatment satisfaction was the most frequent significant predictor. However, being unemployed, having larger than average debts, poor treatment satisfaction and attending fewer sessions at the later stages of treatment were associated with significantly poorer outcomes, up to 1-year after initiating treatment. These findings show promise for the effectiveness of a CBT-based treatment approach for the treatment of predominantly Chinese PGs. Clinical implications and suggestions for future research are discussed. Taken together, the findings suggest early treatment satisfaction is paramount in improving short-term outcomes, with baseline gambling behaviour and treatment intensity playing a more significant role in the longer term.     

Infant Distress and Regulatory Behaviors Vary as a Function of Attachment Security Regardless of Emotion Context and Maternal Involvement

Differences in infant distress and regulatory behaviors based on the quality of attachment to mother, emotion context (frustration versus fear), and whether or not mothers were actively involved in the emotion-eliciting tasks were examined in a sample of 98 16-month-old infants and their mothers. Dyads participated in the Strange Situation, a limiting task designed to elicit infant frustration, and a novelty task designed to elicit infant fear. Mothers were asked to remain uninvolved during the first minute of each task, and then instructed to engage with their infants as they wished for the remaining three minutes. Independent of concurrent maternal sensitivity, resistant infants were significantly more distressed than secure and avoidant infants. Avoidant infants engaged in fewer active mother-oriented regulation behaviors than secure and resistant infants and engaged in more self-soothing in the mother involved condition than the mother uninvolved condition. Resistant infants engaged in more physical comfort with their mothers and more venting than both secure and avoidant infants, and exhibited a smaller variety of adaptive non-mother-oriented strategies than did secure infants. There were few differences in infant distress and regulatory behaviors as a function of emotion task and maternal involvement. Limitations and implications for future research are discussed.     

Expediting youth's entry into employment whilst overlooking precariousness: Flexi‐employability and disciplinary activation in Hong Kong

With an emphasis placed on supply‐side interventions such as skills training and incentives enhancement, active labor market polices (ALMPs) are strongly promoted by international organizations and widely adopted across different welfare regimes to boost employment rates. This article first presents the under‐examined relationship between ALMPs and employment precariousness, which has posed a challenge to the neoliberal notion of employability and activation. Youth‐focused employment policies tend to speed up employment entry whilst downplaying the risk of precariousness and the importance of job quality, and thus further reinforcing the belief that engaging in precarious employment is tolerable if not inevitable. The article then examines the case of Hong Kong, which illustrates that its relatively low rate of youth unemployment may conceal the unfavorable employment conditions confronted by youth. It is argued that the service‐led employment policies and short‐term vocational training define the employability of young workers in terms of labor flexibilities. The coined phase of “flexi‐employability” is characterized by promoting youth's readiness for, and adaptability to, the volatilities and changing demands of the labor market. Arguably, the disciplinary approach to youth activation would only strengthen the work‐first principle by enforcing young people to take up jobs available and leave welfare as soon as possible, but without thoroughly addressing the risks and insecurities generated by the labor market in undermining their well‐being.