Beyond tail median and conditional tail expectation: Extreme risk estimation using tail Lp-optimization

The conditional tail expectation (CTE) is an indicator of tail behavior that takes into account both the frequency and magnitude of a tail event. However, the asymptotic normality of its empirical estimator requires that the underlying distribution possess a finite variance; this can be a strong restriction in actuarial and financial applications. A valuable alternative is the median shortfall (MS), although it only gives information about the frequency of a tail event. We construct a class of tail L^p-medians encompassing the MS and CTE. For p in (1,2), a tail L^p-median depends on both the frequency and magnitude of tail events, and its empirical estimator is, within the range of the data, asymptotically normal under a condition weaker than a finite variance. We extrapolate this estimator and another technique to extreme levels using the heavy-tailed framework. The estimators are showcased on a simulation study and on real fire insurance data.     

Effective educators are culturally competent communicators

Effective formal education or schooling is not simply a matter of teaching and learning curriculum content. It is also about values, assumptions, feelings, perceptions and relationships. No education can take place without interpersonal communication. Effective teaching can thus be qualified in terms of relating effectively in the classroom. Effective education thus also presupposes effective communication skills. Communication as the means and indeed the medium of education is therefore crucial to school success in culturally diverse education. Teachers should therefore be sensitive to the potentially problematic outcomes of intercultural communication in the culturally diverse class. Communication may be a useful source of intercultural knowledge and mutual enrichment between culturally diverse students if managed proactively by the teacher. Otherwise, it could be a source of frustration, misapprehensions, intercultural conflict and ultimately school failure. Effective and successful communication is difficult to realise even in the most favourable circumstances. Intercultural factors, therefore, create the potential for numerous communication problems and intercultural conflict. Communication, both verbal as well as non-verbal, is critically important in cross-cultural competence. As language and culture are inextricably bound, cross-cultural communication is complex and potentially problematic. In this paper, it is argued that effective educators are effective communicators and thus culturally competent in cross-cultural encounters.     

侵权诉讼的膨胀及对策

侵权纠纷是民事诉讼机制解决的主要对象。随着社会的发展,侵权案件逐渐增多,过量的侵权诉讼会带来很多不良后果,不仅是对法律制度本身的损害,更对经济发展产生严重的负面影响。要解决侵权诉讼的膨胀问题,必须找到控制侵权诉讼的正确途径。     

司法现代化在我国农村的困境及出路

司法现代化在农村正遭遇着种种困境,这有其深刻的历史背景和现实基础。实现农村的司法现代化,一方面要对传统法律文化进行认真彻底的反思,肃清沿袭至今的消极影响;另一方面则应从制度上保障司法的公正性,在司法领域树立法律的权威。     

Geometric Method and Generalized Linear Models. Two Opposite Multiparametric Approaches Illustrated on a Sample of Pituitary Adenomas

We used two statistical methods to identify prognostic factors: a log-linear model (logistic and COX regression, based on the notions of linearity and multiplicative relative risk), and the CORICO method (ICOnography of CORrelations) based on the geometric significance of the correlation coefficient. We applied the methods to two different situations (a "case-control study' and a "historical cohort'). We show that the geometric exploratory tool is particularly suited to the analysis of small samples with a large number of variables. It could save time when setting up new study protocols. In this instance, the geometric approach highlighted, without preconceived ideas, the potential role of multihormonality in the course of pituitary adenoma and the unexpected influence of the date of tumour excision on the risk attached to haemorrhage.     

Organisationsentwicklung als Thema von Erwachsenenbildung und Supervisionscurricula

Zusammenfassung  Der Beitrag beschreibt Planung, Verlauf und abschlie?ende Beurteilung eines gruppendynamischen Seminars, in dem für angehende Supervisorinnen und Supervisoren das Thema Organisations-Entwicklung dargestellt und vermittelt werden sollte. Ausgangspunkt war die Kl?rung des Inhaltsraums von Organisations-Entwicklung als geplantem sozialen Wandel, der auf sozialwissenschaftlicher Grundlage zielgerichtet, strategisch und mit Zeitperspektive in der Zusammenarbeit zwischen externer und interner Sach-, Prozess- und Entscheidungskompetenz durchgeführt wird. Als Ziele des Seminars wurden festgelegt, Organisations-Entwicklung als sozialwissenschaftliches Instrument zu begründen, Organisations-Entwicklung-Schritte zu konzipieren und sie kollegial zu kommunizieren. Darüber hinaus wurden Qualit?tskriterien für das Seminar formuliert: Praxisn?he, Kl?rung des Inhaltsraum Selbstorganisation, Selbststeuerung, Ressourcenaktivierung, Konfliktregulierung, Analyse des Gruppenprozesses, Nutzung von Feldkompetenz und Verhaltensmodellen, Etablierung von Feedbackschleifen, Koordination und Synergie, kollegialer Austausch und Kl?rung pers?nlicher Organisations-Entwicklungs-Fragen. Bausteine und Lernorte des Seminars waren das Plenum, die Lernpartnerschaft, das OE-Team, die Beobachterfunktion, die Tagesreflexion, die Sitzung Frage und Antwort, die Darstellung von Praxisf?llen, das Plenum-Feinsteuerung, die Analyse der Arbeitsprozesse des OE-Teams sowie Transfer und Auswertung. Der tats?chliche Verlauf des Seminars wird aus der Perspektive des Leiters kommentiert. Anhand von Verlaufsbeobachtungen und Teilnehmer?u?erungen wird der Eindruck begründet, dass diese Form des Vorgehens als lernintensiv, autonomief?rdernd und für die zu erwerbende Supervisionskompetenz als praxisrelevant betrachtet werden kann.

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This article describes the plantification, progress and final evaluation of a group-dynamic seminar for future supervisors in which the topic organization development was presented and introduced. The content of organization development was first defined as a planned social change which is executed based on social sciences in a goal-oriented, strategic way which considers the time perspective of the cooperation between external and internal specialised-, process- and decision competence. Goals of the seminar were to justify that organisation development is a social science tool, to plan organization development steps and to communicate them to peer seminar participants. Further more, the following quality criteria for the seminar were formulated: practice orientation, definition of self-organisation content, self regulation, resources activation, conflict regulation, group process analysis, field competence and behaviour models usage, feedback establishment, coordination and synergy, mutual peer exchange and finding answers to personal questions about organization development. The building blocks and learn places of the seminar were the plenary sessions, the learning partnership, the od-teams, the observer function, the day analysis, the questions and answers session, the case study presentation, the analysis of the work processes as well as transfer and evaluation. The progression of the seminar is commented from the point of view of the seminar leader. Progress observations and participant’s feedback justify the impression that this way to conceptualise provides an intensive learning experience, supports autonomy and provides relevant and practical supervision competence.

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J?rg Fengler ist Professor der Psychologie an der Universit?t zu K?ln, Heilp?dagogische Fakult?t. Arbeitsschwerpunkte sind u.a. P?dagogische und Klinische Psychologie. Er ist Herausgeber dieser Zeitschrift.     

谈鲁迅小说中的逻辑问题

本文运用演绎逻辑、归纳逻辑和辩证逻辑的基本方法 ,对鲁迅小说中的逻辑问题进行分析 ,得到一些有益的结论     

论创新教育与大学生课外科技活动

介绍了大学开展创新教育的意义及对大学生的影响 ,论述了创新教育与大学生课外科技活动的关系 ,即创新教育是大学生课外科技活动出成果的前提 ,大学生课外科技活动是创新教育的新平台和主要形式 ,它既是创新教育的实践环节 ,检验着创新教育的成果 ,又丰富着创新教育的内涵 ,同时是提高大学生创新精神和能力的主要途径。提出了高校要多方面创造条件 ,深化大学生课外科技活动。