历史分析与比较政治

本文讨论了比较政治学中历史研究的主要分析方法.第一类是因果分析法,包括横截面分析法和样本内分析法.第二类是时序分析法,包括对路径依赖和发展顺序的分析.本文认为,历史分析与众不同的分析方法使它成为比较政治研究中有力的分析工具.     

Bird community responses to different urban conditions in La Paz,Bolivia

Urbanization alters ecosystems worldwide, but little is known about its effects in the Neotropical region. In the present research we examined the relative influence of different levels of urbanization and of some urban development measures on bird species richness, abundance and composition. We surveyed 104 observation stations at which we collected data on the relative abundance of bird species, and also data on seven environmental variables as measures of urban development and human activity. We registered 57 native bird species. Bird species richness and bird abundance increased with lower urbanization levels. Both variables were positively related to vegetation cover and native vegetation, and negatively to built-up cover, abundance of Rock Pigeon (Columa livia), pedestrian rate and car rate. A canonical correspondence analysis produced a significant model that explained 37% of the total variation in species data. This analysis segregated bird species along two important gradients: urbanization and elevation. The most urbanized areas were dominated by a few synanthropic species tolerant to human disturbance, such as Rufous-Collared Sparrow (Zonotrichia capensis), Eared Dove (Zenaida auriculata) or Chiguanco Thrush (Turdus chiguanco). Areas with lower urbanization levels had more species typically associated with native vegetation, such as Plain-Mantled Tit-Spinetail (Leptasthenura aegitaloides) or D’Orbigny’s Chat-Tyrant (Ochthoeca oenanthoides), among others. Elevation had a significant influence in structuring bird communities, with some species restricted to higher elevations and some to lower elevations. Although changes in elevation had an important influence, urbanization had a stronger effect on structuring bird communities. This study provides valuable information and an important baseline for future studies.     

RISK TAKING FOR ONESELF AND OTHERS: A STRUCTURAL MODEL APPROACH

Economic theory makes no predictions about social factors affecting decisions under risk. We examine situations in which a decision maker decides for herself and another person under conditions of payoff equality, and compare them to individual decisions. By estimating a structural model, we find that responsibility leaves utility curvature unaffected, but accentuates the subjective distortion of very small and very large probabilities for both gains and losses. We also find that responsibility reduces loss aversion, but that these results only obtain under some specific definitions of the latter. These results serve to generalize and reconcile some of the still largely contradictory findings in the literature. They also have implications for financial agency, which we discuss.     

Health outcomes for adults in family foster care as children: An analysis by ethnicity

Studies have linked the experience of child abuse or adversity to health problems in adulthood, and researchers have long documented health problems affecting children in foster care. Yet, the adult health outcomes of maltreated children placed in foster care have not been sufficiently isolated. Although information on transitioning youth and young adults is now beginning to emerge, the impact of ethnicity on adult health outcomes has been largely ignored. Given the overrepresentation of ethnic minority children in foster care and the national disparities in the health of ethnic minorities, this study examined the relationship between ethnicity and physical health outcomes for African American, Hispanic, and White adults who experienced family foster care as children. Logistic regression models indicated that ethnicity was not a significant predictor of physical health (p > .05). However, gender and age were associated significantly with their physical health outcomes.     

Flexible and Assembled Bordering Practices for Mexicans travelling to Canada

This article examines a temporary residence visa (TRV) requirement for Mexicans travelling to Canada 2009–2016. The policy was implemented to control the travel of Mexican refugee claimants to Canada, with the explanation that they were making “bogus” claims. Drawing on a critical discourse analysis of news sources, parliamentary debates, and policy documents, I argue that the TRV and subsequent policies and practices enacted during the 2009–2016 period illustrate bordering practices as flexible and assembled, regulating entry and access to secure immigration status. I analyse how bordering practices operated through the enactment of policy, the circulation of anti-immigrant/anti-Mexican discourses, and economic arguments about the cost of lifting the TRV. They were also affected by U.S.-Canada relationships, particularly after the 2016 U.S. election.     

A Bayesian analysis for the multivariate point null testing problem

A Bayesian test for the point null testing problem in the multivariate case is developed. A procedure to get the mixed distribution using the prior density is suggested. For comparisons between the Bayesian and classical approaches, lower bounds on posterior probabilities of the null hypothesis, over some reasonable classes of prior distributions, are computed and compared with the p-value of the classical test. With our procedure, a better approximation is obtained because the p-value is in the range of the Bayesian measures of evidence.     

A Bayesian Test for the Mean of the Power Exponential Distribution

In this article, we deal with the problem of testing a point null hypothesis for the mean of a multivariate power exponential distribution. We study the conditions under which Bayesian and frequentist approaches can match. In this comparison it is observed that the tails of the model are the key to explain the reconciliability or irreconciliability between the two approaches.     

Decisiones sobre las personas: Un análisis psicosocial de los procesos clasificatorios

Resumen

El trabajo presenta una nuea perspectiva para el examen de los procesos de percepción interpersonal. Se destaca tanto el interés psicosocial, como las posibilidades clásicas de explicación para estos eventos, of reciéndose al mismo tiempo una explicación alternativa basada en una conception amplia de la toma de decisiones.

Finalmente, se reporta un ejemplo de investigation empírica en proceso, referida específicamente al tema.     

Conditional and predictive probability integral transforms

The conditional probability integral transform, used in goodness-of-fit tests, is compared with its Bayesian counterpart, the predictive probability integral transform, and it is shown that under suitable conditions, in the presence of an adequate group structure, they yield the same transformed random variable, usually uniform on the unit interval.     

On a theorem of Stein relating Bayesian and classical inferences in group models

Let a group G act on the sample space. This paper gives another proof of a theorem of Stein relating a group invariant family of posterior Bayesian probability regions to classical confidence regions when an appropriate prior is used. The example of the central multivariate normal distribution is discussed.