Strategic learning with scenarios

Since the oil shocks upset the business world in the 1970s, the use of multiple scenario analysis has been increasingly propagated as an approach to deal effectively with the many long-run uncertainties that surround business organisations. Since its introduction, the scenario approach has undergone some considerable changes and it is now claimed fulfils a diverse range of functions. Newly-added functions include the stretching of managers' mental models and the triggering and acceleration of processes of organisational learning. Although these functions currently get most of the attention in academic and management journals in recent years, a satisfying explanation of how scenarios fulfil these functions is still missing in the scenario literature. The scenario methodology seems to tell only part of the story suggesting that construing and using scenarios ‘simply’ consists of sequentially completing several distinct phases. If multiple scenario analysis really is able to fulfil the wide range of functions ascribed to it another, more dynamic process has to be hidden behind the rather static phase model. The scenario literature does not give any insight into this latter process. This article aims to increase the understanding of multiple scenario analysis by unravelling some of the mysteries surrounding it. For this purpose, the role of scenarios in strategic management is studied from a cognitive perspective. It appears that scenarios can deal effectively with several bottlenecks that potentially hinder organisational learning on a strategic level in organisations.     

Spectres of Afrikanerdom in contemporary commodity culture: history,memory, and imagining the self

The centrality of nostalgia in contemporary Afrikaner culture is contingent on the gradual demotion of Afrikaner history in post-apartheid South Africa. This article, however, departs from the view that such recapitulations of the past are necessarily always intransigent. Casting Afrikaner nostalgia as manifesting dissatisfaction with the government is ultimately not representative of the diverse spectres of Afrikanerdom that haunt selected commodity items, such as the t-shirts discussed in this article. If we allow for a melange of narratives and interpretations to emerge, as a postmodern view of history would encourage, it enables us to challenge a one-dimensional view of Afrikaner nostalgia. This article therefore posits that specific nostalgic imaginings of Afrikanerdom are decidedly self-reflexive and progressive. Instead of attempting to reify the past (together with irrecoverable positions of power), some of the discourses addressed in this article reveal Afrikanerdom’s capacities for appropriation, aestheticisation and commodification, which open up new possibilities for thinking about Afrikaner subjectivity in post-apartheid South Africa.     

Ségrégation professionnelle selon la durée du travail en Europe

L'auteur évalue la ségrégation professionnelle selon la durée du travail dans quinze pays européens, à partir de données de l'Enquěte européenne sur les forces de travail. Il recherche les déterminants de cette ségrégation par une analyse de régression reposant sur trois groupes d'indicateurs (quantité d'emploi, qualité de l'emploi et institutions). De façon générale, la ségrégation observée est plus forte chez les hommes que chez les femmes, et chez les jeunes que chez les adultes. Elle est plutôt corrélée avec la quantité d'emploi chez les hommes, alors que des variables des trois groupes d'indicateurs interviennent chez les jeunes et les femmes adultes.     

The Role of Effort in Shifting Preference for Feedback Stimuli

ABSTRACT

Researchers have examined preference for the format of delivery of feedback, however little research has examined strategies to increase feedback and praise desirability. The current study aimed to evaluate whether preference shifted for stimuli that signaled work and for manager-praise stimuli that were delivered after work. Moreover, we sought to understand if these preference shifts were greater when the work was higher-effort compared to lower-effort work tasks (a phenomenon described in the basic literature as within-trial contrast). The study took place in a simulated work environment. Sixteen university students clicked on a shape that produced the work task, completed a mock medical data-entry task, and received manager-praise on an FR1 and FR20 schedule. At the start of the study and following each contingency exposure trials, they completed a preference assessment for both the shapes and the manager-feedback stimuli. The primary dependent variable was the percentage of preference change for two categories of stimuli – shapes presented at the beginning of trials that signaled which condition participants were in and manager-praise stimuli presented at the end of trials. Preference for the shape stimuli for both high- and low-effort stimuli decreased indicating that stimuli that signal work may become less preferred. Preference for the manager-praise stimuli for both high- and low-effort stimuli increased suggesting that stimuli that follow work may become more preferred. Overall, these data suggest that the conditions under which managers deliver feedback and praise may influence preference for those stimuli.     

Safeguarding young people from cyber pornography and cyber sexual predation: a major dilemma of the internet

Over the past 20 years, the internet has provided an expedient mode of communication and access to a wealth of information. The internet is a valuable tool; however, it can also be detrimental to the wellbeing of children due to numerous online hazards. There is the potential for children to be abused via cyberspace through online sexual solicitation and access to pornography. Indeed, the internet is replete with inappropriate material, including pornography, chatrooms with adult themes and access to instant messaging wherein others could misrepresent themselves. Because children are actively utilizing the internet where unknown others can have access to them or where they can be exposed to inappropriate sexual materials, they require safeguarding and education in safe internet use. The purpose of this article is to provide a discussion of how to safeguard children from and educate them about online sexual solicitation and pornography. We contend that society needs an overall conceptual shift in its attitude towards young people's internet use. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Network and Health Changes Among Older Dutch Adults

A negative effect of good health on the instrumental support received can be viewed as an effect of the mobilization of helpers. A positive effect of good health on the personal network size and the instrumental support given demonstrates that people in poor health have difficulty actively maintaining their relationships. Furthermore, the support received and given is positively related to the support given and received in the past. In four waves of a seven–year longitudinal study, personal interviews were conducted with 2,302 older Dutch adults (aged 60 to 85) who live on their own. The hypotheses have been confirmed. An implication is that investing in relationships by giving support might pay off in times of need.     

Exclusion restrictions in instrumental variables equations

In this paper we consider two-stage estimators of parameters of a structural equation in a model with recursive exclusion restrictions on the instrumental variables equations. The estimations considered are simple OLS and GLS estimators after substitution of estimates of the systematic part of the IV equations for the endogenous variables. It is known in the literature that neither imposing the restrictions in the first stage nor ignoring them will in general be more efficient than the alternative. We introduce a class of mixed instrumental variables estimators (MIV) with these possibilities as special cases which yields an estimator which is not only more efficient than the two stage estimators considered in the literature but as efficient as an efficient system estimator like 3SLS.     

Privatisation and economism: an investigation amongst 'producers' in two privatised public utilities in Britain

Both academic and political debate about the effects of privatisation upon employees in privatised companies has taken place in something of an empirical vacuum. In particular, there is a lack of systematic enquiries into the major privatised utilities. Despite the lack of evidence, a number of claims have been advanced, both about the impact of privatisation upon the political attitudes of employees, and about its effects on working conditions, worker motivation and behaviour. This paper presents the results of a survey of 442 employees in two privatised public utilities. It is divided into two parts, looking first at the more general social and political attitudes of these employees, then presenting their views on the impact of privatisation on the company they work for, and on their working lives. The findings reported here lend little support either to new right claims about privatisation's transformative powers or to the view that ‘for most people … privatisation will make very little difference at all’ (Saunders and Harris, 1990).     

Empirical Bayes rules and Gaussian processes

In this paper we study empirical Bayes (e.B.) rules from a viewpoint which has not yet got any attention in the literature. Since an e.B. estimator can be seen as an estimate of an unknown function, namely the true Bayes estimator, it is natural to consider e.B. estimators as stochastic processes. In this paper we make a first attempt in the direction of this approach. For a certain class of e.B. estimators for the continuous one-parameter exponential family, we investigate the global behaviour on finite intervals. It is shown that the difference between the e.B. and the true Bayes estimator can be represented as a certain type of Gaussian process plus a remainder which is uniformly of smaller order. Several applications of this result are given.     

Scarcity and consumer choice behavior

Two experiments are performed to test hypotheses derived from commodity theory. Commodity theory promotes a psychological conceptualization of traditionally economic variables such as supply, demand and utility. The theory concerns itself mainly with the effect of restricted availability upon the valuation of communications, but in the present paper the effect of restricted availability and attainability on the preference for material goods (recipe books) is investigated.The first experiment was designed to test the effect of degree of availability (low, middle or high) and cause of unavailability (accidental unavailability, unavailability due to popularity, unavailability due to limited supply and unavailability due to both limited supply and popularity) on the choice between three recipe books in a simulated product test. The results suggest that the theory is valid only for attractive products. For subjects who were not attracted to the product this relationship was reversed (they avoided choosing the scarce product), indicating the arousal of an ‘altruism’ motive in the experimental setting.The second experiment was designed to test the effect of attainability (attainable, unattainable changed to attainable and unattainable) and cause of unattainability (accidental, popularity, limited supply and both limited supply and popularity) on the same kind of choice. The results again suggest that commodity theory is valid only for subjects attracted to the good, and only for the restricted attainability situation. For subjects not attracted to the product field no treatment effects were found. Commodity theory makes no clear prediction of the effects of unattainability, so reactance theory was used to predict the effects of this variable. The hypothesis that an unattainable good is valued more than an attainable good had to be rejected. A possible explanation based on the occurrence of frustration in this condition is discussed.