A global count of the extreme poor in 2012: data issues,methodology and initial results

The 2014 release of a new set of purchasing power parity (PPP) conversion factors (PPPs) for 2011 has prompted a revision of the World Bank’s international poverty line. In revising the line, we have sought to minimize changes to the real purchasing power of the earlier $1.25 line (in 2005 PPPs), so as to preserve the integrity of the goalposts for international targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the World Bank’s twin goals – which were set with respect to that line. In particular, the new line was obtained by inflating the same fifteen national poverty lines – originally used by Ravallion et al. (World Bank Econ. Rev. 23(2): 163–184 2009) to construct the $1.25 line – to 2011 prices in local currency units, and then converting them to US dollars using 2011 PPP conversion factors. With a small approximation, this procedure yields a new international poverty line of $1.90 per person per day. In combination with other changes described in the paper, this revision leads to relatively small changes in global poverty incidence for 2011: from 14.5 % using the old method to 14.1 % using the new method. In 2012, the new reference year for the global count, we find 12.7 % of the world’s population, or 897 million people, are living in extreme poverty. There are changes in the regional composition of poverty, but they are also relatively small. This paper documents methodological decisions taken in the process of updating both the poverty line and the consumption and income distributions at the country level, including issues of inter-temporal and spatial price adjustments. It also describes various caveats and limitations of the approach taken.     

Gamma-Maxwell distribution

A new two-parameter distribution, the gamma-Maxwell distribution, isproposed and studied. We generate the new distribution using the gamma-G generator of distributions. The proposal distribution can be seen as an extension of the Maxwell distribution with more flexibility in terms of the distribution asymmetry and kurtosis. We study some probability properties, discuss maximum-likelihood estimation and present a real data application indicating that the new distribution can improve the ordinary Maxwell distribution in fitting real data.     

Slashed generalized Rayleigh distribution

We introduce a new family of distributions suitable for fitting positive data sets with high kurtosis which is called the Slashed Generalized Rayleigh Distribution. This distribution arises as the quotient of two independent random variables, one being a generalized Rayleigh distribution in the numerator and the other a power of the uniform distribution in the denominator. We present properties and carry out estimation of the model parameters by moment and maximum likelihood (ML) methods. Finally, we conduct a small simulation study to evaluate the performance of ML estimators and analyze real data sets to illustrate the usefulness of the new model.     

“Service” Municipal Administration as Part of the Development of Youth Entrepreneurship in Russia

The study offers a development of the social technologies of “service” municipal administration. The consumers’ opinions should be taken into consideration when determining the nomenclature and standards of their provision, which include the quality parameters that the consumers consider important. In addition, “service” relations imply the assessment of consumer satisfaction with the services and the correction of services based on the results of the assessment. Since this interaction implies communication between the municipal administration body and service users, it is necessary to focus on communicative technologies that are capable of providing a full cycle of service development and improvement for young entrepreneurs. Communications should help determine the expectations associated with a service, raise awareness thereof, and involve young people in the decisions related to the provision of services.     

Analysis of the Treatment, by the U.S. Department of Energy, of the FEP Hydrothermal Activity in the Yucca Mountain Performance Assessment

The U.S. Code of Federal Regulations, 10 CFR Part 63, stipulates that the expected performance of the geological high-level nuclear waste repository must be demonstrated through a total system performance assessment (TSPA). The TSPA represents an analysis that identifies all features, events, and processes (FEPs) that might affect the disposal system and examines the effects of the identified FEPs upon the performance of the system. Secondary minerals from the thick unsaturated zone of Yucca Mountain were deposited from waters with temperatures up to 70-90 degrees C. U-Pb dating constrained the ages of the elevated temperatures to the period between 10 and 5-6 million years ago. Relatively youthful circulation of thermal waters (hydrothermal activity) would be of concern for the safety of the disposal facility. A phenomenological model was advanced by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), which proposed that the minerals were deposited by infiltrating meteoric waters that were heated upon contact with the bedrock; it was hypothesized that the latter was conductively heated by a shallow silicic magma body. The model rendered processes responsible for elevated water temperatures inconsequential for the safety of the proposed nuclear waste facility. However, attempts by DOE at validating the model by means of numeric thermal simulations and analogue system observations were unsuccessful. Regulations specify two criteria for exclusion of a FEP from consideration in the TSPA: low probability and low consequence. The lack of a plausible phenomenological model makes it impossible to apply either of these two criteria to the FEP Hydrothermal Activity. Despite the lack of a valid criterion for exclusion, it was excluded from the TSPA. Both the development of DOE's thermal model and the formal FEP analysis were associated with deviations from DOE's quality assurance regulations.     

Self-perception of aging and health among older adults in Korea

The way that each individual perceives his or her own aging and health may be a key indicator of adaptation and well-being in old age. This study explored the determinants of self-perception of aging and health using 291 community-dwelling older adults in Korea (mean AGE=69.9). Older individuals with lower levels of education and economic status and various types of health problems (more chronic conditions, greater disability, poorer vision, and greater numbers of sick days) were found to have more negative self-perception of aging and health. In addition, a significant role of psychological factors was observed. For self-perception of health, sense of mastery was found to be a significant factor, and for self-perception of aging, neuroticism was observed to be significant along with sense of mastery. The mediating role of self-perception of health was supported that positive perception of health intervened the adverse effects of health problems on self-perception of aging. The findings demonstrate the important roles of psychological resources and subjective perceptions and suggest a need to consider them when planning interventions.     

Slashed power-Lindley distribution

In this article, we introduce the slashed power-Lindley distribution. This model can be seen as an extension of the power-Lindley distribution with more flexibility in terms of the kurtosis of distribution. It arises as the ratio of two independent random variables, the one being a power-Lindley distribution and a power of the uniform distribution. We present properties and carry out estimates of the model parameters by the maximum likelihood method. Finally, we conduct a small simulation study to evaluate the performance of maximum likelihood estimators and we analyze a real data set to illustrate the usefulness of the new model.     

Modified slashed-Rayleigh distribution

A new family of slash distributions, the modified slashed-Rayleigh distribution, is proposed and studied. This family is an extension of the ordinary Rayleigh distribution, being more flexible in terms of distributional kurtosis. It arises as a quotient of two independent random variables, one being a Rayleigh distribution in the numerator and the other a power of the exponential distribution in denominator. We present properties of the proposed family. In addition, we carry out estimation of the model parameters by moment and maximum likelihood methods. Finally, we conduct a small-scale simulation study to evaluate the performance of the maximum likelihood estimators and apply the results to a real data set, revealing its good performance.     

Trends in Pension Reform in the Russian Federation: A Bbrief Overview

The purpose of this paper is to briefly summarize the main trends in the pension reform process which has been carried out in the Russian Federation since the collapse of the USSR in 1991. The Russian Federation and the other former Soviet Republics, currently CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) countries, having undergone a transition from centrally planned to open-market economies, face a common challenge: the need to adapt their social security programmes to new political, economic and social realities.     

Drivers of Youth Labour Market Integration Across European Regions

Territorial disparities and youth labour markets have been often considered as separated themes, due to challenges in data availability. Comparative regional or sub-regional research on youth labour market integration (YLMI) have been therefore scarce. In this article, we address this gap by presenting a composite measure of YLMI that covers a wide range of indicators and sheds light on the EU territorial divide of young peoples’ opportunities at regional level. In order to build the YLMI index, we use benefit-of-the-doubt-weighting, a seminal methodology on composite indicators (CI) that combines sequence with conditional weights based on the range of each sub-indicator. To proof the usefulness of YLMI, we analyze the evolution of regional YLMI in the EU before and after the economic crisis; and the trends of homogenization or differentiation across EU territories. Furthermore, we investigate to what extent employment conditions, skills supply and technological resources explain cross-regional variations in YLMI.