Noninformative priors for the between-group variance in the unbalanced one-way random effects model with heterogeneous error variances

For the unbalanced one-way random effects model with heterogeneous error variances, we propose the non-informative priors for the between-group variance and develop the first- and second-order matching priors. It turns out that the second-order matching priors do not exist and the reference prior and Jeffreys prior do not satisfy a first-order matching criterion. We also show that the first-order matching prior meets the frequentist target coverage probabilities much better than the Jeffreys prior and reference prior through simulation study, and the Bayesian credible intervals based on the matching prior and reference prior give shorter intervals than the existing confidence intervals by examples.     

教育技术的范式及其历史演变

教育技术的 4个范式包括媒体范式、传播与系统范式、行为科学范式、认知科学范式。许多教育技术学者开始探索并发展新的范式。库恩的科学范式的理论 ,讨论了教育技术领域的范式变迁 ,指出这实际上是一个范式持续在演变的过程。     

盲人摸象与成竹在胸:分科治学下学术的细碎化与整体性

近代以来,分科治学,已成体制,纵横两面,相互隔膜。所做学问,或许符合后出外来的学科轨则,却不理解前人的习惯做派。诩为占领制高点的专家之学,渐成割据分封,画地为牢,而占山为王与落草为寇实无二致。至于所谓跨学科,则往往是坐井观天,或踉跄跳跃,以局部求通论,以归纳代贯通,势必以偏概全,看朱成碧。分科治学之下,学人的眼界日趋狭隘,没有成竹在胸,难免盲人摸象,无法庖丁解牛;刻舟求剑、缘木求鱼之事,日益习以为常,甚至天经地义。博而后约,以专致精,由精求通,整体之下探究局部,仍为治学取法乎上的不二法门。如此,才能接续前贤的未竟之业,以免日暮时分盲人骑瞎马行险道,将天边的浮云误认作树林,或以找漏洞、寻破绽、钻空子、对着干为治学的正道坦途。     

Tolerance of Uncertainty: Links to Happenstance,Career Decision Self‐Efficacy,and Career Satisfaction

This study investigated the extent to which tolerance of uncertainty affects the relationship between happenstance skills and career satisfaction via career decision self‐efficacy. Moderated mediation analysis was conducted on data collected from 321 graduates (175 men, 146 women) of Korean universities making the school‐to‐work transition. Results showed that career decision self‐efficacy fully mediated the relationship between happenstance skills and career satisfaction. Furthermore, the moderation effect of tolerance of uncertainty had a significant impact on the relationship between happenstance skills and career decision self‐efficacy. Tolerance of uncertainty should be considered an important variable in happenstance career theory and intervention. Unplanned influences should also be considered important factors in the career decision‐making process.     

Objective Bayesian inference for the ratio of the scale parameters of two Weibull distributions

The Weibull distribution is widely used due to its versatility and relative simplicity. In our paper, the non informative priors for the ratio of the scale parameters of two Weibull models are provided. The asymptotic matching of coverage probabilities of Bayesian credible intervals is considered, with the corresponding frequentist coverage probabilities. We developed the various priors for the ratio of two scale parameters using the following matching criteria: quantile matching, matching of distribution function, highest posterior density matching, and inversion of test statistics. One particular prior, which meets all the matching criteria, is found. Next, we derive the reference priors for groups of ordering. We see that all the reference priors satisfy a first-order matching criterion and that the one-at-a-time reference prior is a second-order matching prior. A simulation study is performed and an example given.     

利他主义救助的法律干预

对利他主义救助进行法律干预,应着眼于提高救助收益或降低救助成本。可以设想的法律对策主要包括:设定关于利他主义救助的法律义务,对见危不救实施惩罚;为救助行为提供法律保护,包括减免救助人因疏忽大意而产生的赔偿责任,加重被救助人起诉救助人时的举证负担,以及惩罚被救助人的诬陷或讹诈行为;赋予救助人赔偿请求权,或由政府给予奖励。分析表明,赋予救助人以求偿权不如由政府奖励救助行为;对救助行为提供法律保护优于为救助行为设定法律义务。     

The estimation of treatment effect for the censored bivariate data under the univariate censoring

This paper establishes a nonparametric estimator for the treatment effect on censored bivariate data under unvariate censoring. This proposed estimator is based on the one from Lin and Ying(1993)'s nonparametric bivariate survival function estimator, which is itself a generalized version of Park and Park(1995)' quantile estimator. A Bahadur type representation of quantile functions were obtained from the marginal survival distribution estimator of Lin and Ying' model. The asymptotic property of this estimator is shown below and the simulation studies are also given     

Effect of Inventory Information Discrepancy in a Drop‐Shipping Supply Chain

This article investigates the impact of information discrepancy between a drop‐shipper and an online retailer on the drop‐shipping supply chain performance. The inventory information misalignment between them contributes to the failure of order fulfillment and demand satisfaction, and hence the associated penalties are incurred. In this article, we first analyze the penalties of ignoring such information discrepancy on both the drop‐shipper and the online retailer. We then assess the impact of information discrepancy on both parties when the drop‐shipper understands the existence of the information discrepancy but is not able to eliminate the errors. The numerical experiments indicate that both parties can have significant amount of the percentage cost reductions if the information discrepancy can be eliminated, and the potential savings are substantial especially when the errors have large variability. Furthermore, we observe that the online retailer is more vulnerable to information discrepancy than the drop‐shipper, and the drop‐shipper is likely to suffer from the online retailer's underestimation of the physical inventory level more than the problem of its overestimation. Moreover, even if eliminating errors is not possible, both parties could still benefit from taking the possibility of errors into consideration in decision making.