An affine‐invariant multivariate sign test for cluster correlated data

The author presents a multivariate location model for cluster correlated observations. He proposes an affine‐invariant multivariate sign statistic for testing the value of the location parameter. His statistic is an adaptation of that proposed by Randles (2000). The author shows, under very mild conditions, that his test statistic is asymptotically distributed as a chi‐squared random variable under the null hypothesis. In particular, the test can be used for skewed populations. In the context of a general multivariate normal model, the author obtains values of his test's Pitman asymptotic efficiency relative to another test based on the overall average. He shows that there is an improvement in the relative performance of the new test as soon as intra‐cluster correlation is present Even in the univariate case, the new test can be very competitive for Gaussian data. Furthermore, the statistic is easy to compute, even for large dimensional data. The author shows through simulations that his test performs well compared to the average‐based test. He illustrates its use with real data.     

Optimal pension funding with demographic instability and endogenous returns on investment

This paper tries to explore some optimal funding policies for pension systems in a general equilibrium setting where funding affects returns on investment and wages through its impact on capital formation. This is done in the context of irregular demographic evolutions such as those expected in developed countries for the next century. Particular attention is given to the intergenerational welfare criterion which is used for designing optimal policies. It appears that funding receives low justification with a welfare criterion which assumes a high substitutability between consumptions of successive cohorts, implying a low concern for intergenerational equity. Funding is highly justified in the opposite case where a high level of consumption for some cohorts is not considered as a compensation for low consumption by others. However the optimal patterns of transfers and savings which are found in this latter case are not straightforward. Some simpler funding rules are explored in the last section of this paper, which show that non-optimal funding may imply, on the contrary, a high level of inequality between subsequent generations.Paper presented at the ISPE-conference Fiscal implications of an ageing population, May–June 1990 at Vaalsbroek, The Netherlands. We thank Pierre Pestieau for his remarks on a first draft of this paper. We also thank for their comments our two discussants Carol Propper and Lans Bovenberg, as well as other participants to the ISPE Conference. Any errors are, of course, ours.     

Does surprise enhance infant memory? Assessing the impact of the encoding context on subsequent object recognition

A discrepancy between what was predicted and what is observed has been linked to increased looking times, changes in brain electrical activity, and increased pupil dilation in infants. These processes associated with heightened attention and readiness to learn might enhance the encoding and memory consolidation of the surprising object, as suggested by both the infant and the adult literature. We therefore investigated whether the presence of surprise during the encoding context enhances subsequent encoding and recognition memory processes for the items that violated infants' expectations. Seventeen-month-olds viewed 20 familiar objects, half of which were labeled correctly, while the other half were mislabeled. Subsequently, infants were presented with a silent recognition memory test where the previously labeled objects appeared along with new images. Pupil dilation was measured, with more dilated pupils indicating (1) surprise during those labeling events where the item was mislabeled and (2) successful retrieval processes during the memory test. Infants responded with more pupil dilation to mislabeling compared to correct labeling. Importantly, despite the presence of a surprise response during mislabeling, infants only differentiated between the previously seen and unseen items at the memory test, offering no evidence that surprise had facilitated the encoding of the mislabeled items.     

Food in a row: urban trees offer valuable floral resources to pollinating insects

Urbanization affects the availability and diversity of floral resources (pollen and/or nectar) for wild pollinating insects. For example, urban green areas are characterized by an abundance of ornamental plant species. Increasingly, trees are planted to improve the aesthetics of urban streets and parks. These urban trees might offer important floral resources to pollinating insects. To examine the suitability of urban trees as resources for pollinating insects, we investigated the chemical composition of pollen and nectar as well as the amount of nectar produced by the nine major insect-pollinated tree species planted in cities of Western Europe, namely Acer pseudoplatanus, Aesculus carnea, A. hippocastanum, Robinia pseudoacacia, Tilia cordata, T. x euchlora, T. x europaea, T. platyphyllos and T. tomentosa. The analyses revealed that globally the Tilia trees provide pollen with lower contents of polypeptides, amino acids and phytosterols compared with the other species. Urban tree flowers offer abundant nectar with relatively high sugar contents (0.16–1.28 mg/flower); sucrose was the predominant sugar in all nectars. The investigated tree species could therefore be considered in future city plantings.     

International Migrant Remittances and Labour Supply in Nigeria

The study analyses how remittances to Nigeria affect the labour supply of recipients using Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and a Log‐Linear regression model, with data from the 2013 Nigerian General Household Survey. The PSM results show that for the entire sample, the difference between the average amount of labour supplied per week by those that receive remittances and the amount they would have supplied without remittances is insignificant. The marginal impact analysis also shows that, ceteris paribus, the average labour supply for all recipients is inelastic to remittances. The results from the sub‐group analysis, however, show that receiving remittances negatively affects the labour supply of the self‐employed in agriculture, teenagers and the elderly. These results led us to the recommendation that policies to increase the inflow of remittances should be encouraged but in tandem with programmes to educate farmers on the benefit of investing remittances received in their farming business.     

Simulating space-time random fields with nonseparable Gneiting-type covariance functions

Statistics and Computing - Two algorithms are proposed to simulate space-time Gaussian random fields with a covariance function belonging to an extended Gneiting class, the definition of which...     

Wages and employment of French workers with African origin

Our study focuses on the differences in wages and employment between French workers with French parents and French workers with at least one African parent, using the Formation Qualification Professionnelle survey (Insee, Paris, 2003). We introduce econometric decompositions, which allow us to reach conclusions when the potentially discriminated group is small. Then, we clarify the impact of discrimination at the hiring level in this context. We find that unexplained parts in the employment decompositions are much larger than in the wage decompositions. This suggests that, in France, labor market discrimination is more frequent at the hiring level than in the compensation process.     

A Bayesian Evidence Synthesis for Estimating Campylobacteriosis Prevalence

Stakeholders making decisions in public health and world trade need improved estimations of the burden‐of‐illness of foodborne infectious diseases. In this article, we propose a Bayesian meta‐analysis or more precisely a Bayesian evidence synthesis to assess the burden‐of‐illness of campylobacteriosis in France. Using this case study, we investigate campylobacteriosis prevalence, as well as the probabilities of different events that guide the disease pathway, by (i) employing a Bayesian approach on French and foreign human studies (from active surveillance systems, laboratory surveys, physician surveys, epidemiological surveys, and so on) through the chain of events that occur during an episode of illness and (ii) including expert knowledge about this chain of events. We split the target population using an exhaustive and exclusive partition based on health status and the level of disease investigation. We assume an approximate multinomial model over this population partition. Thereby, each observed data set related to the partition brings information on the parameters of the multinomial model, improving burden‐of‐illness parameter estimates that can be deduced from the parameters of the basic multinomial model. This multinomial model serves as a core model to perform a Bayesian evidence synthesis. Expert knowledge is introduced by way of pseudo‐data. The result is a global estimation of the burden‐of‐illness parameters with their accompanying uncertainty.